Today USDA REPORT, US-China, Major storm
AgMarket.Net will release a video on our App AgMarket.App immediately after the report, and then a more in depth video on AgMarket.Net after the close.
US-PRC trade talks. Latest news is that the meeting will end short of the original schedule suggesting that no comprehensive agreement is possible. Talks have been very volatile and there have been several headlines about talks off, talks on, talks short, talks on schedule, talks about mini agreement, US commerce department adding another 28 companies on the blacklist, possible currency pact, possible agreement to return bean purchases to 30 mmt annually vs current 18-22 and nearly recouping the 40mmt pre-tariff levels in exchange for no implementation of further tariff increases. There is still hope that a mini agreement will happen despite Pres Trump insistence that it’s all or nothing. I did an interview yesterday and the host said it all “The weather is easier to predict than these talks”
Weather – This one is going to be bad. With the possibility of 14-30” of snow up where my wife is from, it is possible beans could be completely under snow as beans are short to start with. What kind of losses does that equate to? Immature corn is an obvious hit from N Platt NE to Grand Forks ND and up into Canada. Approximately 50% of corn still has ears up. Wheat, Barley, Edibles, Canola all still in fields N of Grand Forks and all of Canada. This is likely going to impact supply greater than market is trading.
USDA October crop supply/demand report estimates come out at 11:00
USDA 2019-20 U.S. corn and soybean production
| USDA Oct. | Average of | Range of | USDA Sep. | |
| 2019-20 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2019-20 | |
| estimate | estimates | estimates | estimate | |
| Corn | ||||
| Production | ______ | 13.684 | 13.446-13.883 | 13.799 |
| Yield | _____ | 167.5 | 166.0-168.7 | 168.2 |
| Harvested area | ______ | 81.649 | 80.800-82.020 | 82.017 |
| Soybeans | ||||
| Production | _____ | 3.583 | 3.525-3.660 | 3.633 |
| Yield | ______ | 47.3 | 46.8-48.2 | 47.9 |
| Harvested area | ______ | 75.705 | 74.800-75.900 | 75.866 |
USDA 2019-20 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks
| USDA Oct. | Average of | Range of | USDA Sep. | |
| 2019-20 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2019-20 | |
| end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
| estimates | estimates | |||
| Wheat | _______ | 1.015 | 0.980-1.047 | 1.014 |
| Corn | _______ | 1.784 | 1.612-1.963 | 2.190 |
| Soybeans | _______ | 0.521 | 0.433-0.582 | 0.640 |
USDA 2019-20 world grain and soybean ending stocks
| USDA Oct. | Average of | Range of | USDA Sep. | |
| 2019-20 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2019-20 | |
| end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
| estimates | estimates | |||
| Wheat | ________ | 285.17 | 280.50-288.73 | 286.51 |
| Corn | ________ | 298.27 | 291.00-304.50 | 306.27 |
| Soybeans | ________ | 96.46 | 95.00-99.00 | 99.19 |
USDA world production
| Oct. USDA | Sep. USDA | Oct. USDA | Sep. USDA | |
| 2018-19 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2019-20 | |
| estimate | estimate | estimate | estimate | |
| Argentina wheat | _____ | 19.50 | _____ | 20.50 |
| Australia wheat | _____ | 17.30 | _____ | 19.00 |
| Canada wheat | _____ | 32.20 | _____ | 33.30 |
| Russia wheat | _____ | 71.69 | _____ | 72.50 |
| Argentina corn | _____ | 51.00 | _____ | 50.00 |
| Brazil corn | _____ | 101.00 | _____ | 101.00 |
| South Africa corn | _____ | 11.50 | ____ | 14.00 |
| Ukraine corn | ______ | 35.81 | ______ | 36.00 |
| China corn | _____ | 257.33 | _____ | 254.00 |
| Argentina soy | _____ | 55.30 | _____ | 53.00 |
| Brazil soy | ______ | 117.00 | ______ | 123.00 |
Back