This is a great debate about USDA and price outlook!! Please watch
AgMarket November WASDE discussion
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/recording/7892589544183144962
ADMIS COmments
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 2 cents, HRW down 2; HRS Wheat down 2, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil up 5 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 35 yuan in soybeans, up 14 in Corn, down 9 in Soymeal, up 32 in Soyoil, and up 48 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 49 ringgit at 3,395 (basis January) still supported by tight supplies.
South America Weather Forecast
The Brazilian growing regions over the 6 to 10 day period remains with showers and thunderstorms bringing fair to good amount of rainfall to 95% of the growing areas; only Rio Grande do Sul looks to miss most of the rains. Temps will run close to average.
The Argentine growing regions over the 6 to 10 day period continues with limited rainfall of light amounts covering 55% of the growing area. Temps will run near average before cooling for the weekend and early next week.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The 6 to 10 day forecast has dry weather dominating the Plains and Midwest. Temps go back up to above average for most of next week.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 20,000 Corn; bought 11,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 8,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 42,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 344,000 Corn; net long 289,000 Soybeans; net long 98,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 113,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,900 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,300; Corn up 5,500; Soybeans down 5,800 contracts; Soymeal up 1,200 lots, and; Soyoil up 5,500.
Deliveries were 125 contracts for Soybeans.
There were changes in registrations (Soyoil down 38 lots)—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1; Soybeans 297; Soyoil 1,770 lots; Soymeal 193; Rice 417; HRW Wheat 113, and; HRS 1,195.
TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—
Tender Activity—Pakistan seeks 400,000t optional-origin wheat—S. Korea bought 64,000t optional-origin corn—Syria seeks 500,000t optional-origin corn, 50,000t soymeal—
Wire story reports Oklahoma wheat ‘ugly’ but weathers recent freezing rain fine; alternating weeks of warm and cold weather are typical this time of year in the Southern Plains, but the recent cold snap across much of Oklahoma still seemed significant; most of the wheat that was up had only recently emerged and yield should not really be negatively affected, from what we are seeing in wheat plots around the state; It’s not pretty but quality should be fine
Uptick in soybean sowings eases Brazil second crop corn concerns – Refinitiv Commodities Research
2020/21 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 107 [95.0–111] MILLION Tons, unchanged from last update
As dryness returned to most major first and second crop producing areas, 2020/21 total Brazil corn production is tentatively unchanged at 107 million tons. Total corn area remains at 19 million hectares, still 5% above last season mostly due to increases in second crop corn area, although widespread delays in soybean sowings continue to narrow the potential for a wide planting window in early 2021. The estimate is 0.5 million hectares below USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) estimate released in October, which assumes total corn sowings at 19.5 million hectares and national-level yield of 5.64 tons per hectare. Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) in its October outlook (08 October) lowered total corn area nearly 1 million hectares to 18.5 million acres and production to 105.2 million tons.
Brazil soybean sowings continue to gain pace despite less-than-favorable weather – Refinitiv Commodities Research
2020/21 BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 129 [120–135] MILLION TONS, unchanged from last update
As dryness and sowing delays return to most major producing regions, stable area and yield estimates tentatively keep 2020/21 soybean production at 129 million tons. The outlook is 4 million tons below USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) estimate released in October, which has sowings at 38.6 million hectares and yield at 3.45 tons per hectare. Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) in its October outlook kept area at 37.9 million acres and production at 133.7 million tons.
Brazil-based meat giant JBS SA reported a near nine-times increase in third-quarter net profit, beating market expectations, driven by strong demand at home as well as from the United States and China; July-September profit reached 3.133 billion reais ($581.2 million) versus 357 million reais in the same period a year prior; that compared with the 2.870 billion reais average; net revenue rose more than 34% to 70 billion reais, with all business units recording growth in reais terms.
Argentina wheat production down again on disappointing rainfall in the north – Refinitiv Commodities Research
2020/21 ARGENTINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 17.2 [15.0–19.2] MILLION TONS, DOWN 3% FROM LAST UPDATE
2020/21 Argentina wheat production is lowered by 3% to 17.2 [15.0–19.2] million tons, on disappointing rainfall across the main Pampas over the last few weeks. If realized, the projected median estimate would be the lowest since 2014. In November’s WASDE (dated 10 November) USDA placed Argentina wheat production at 18 million tons, down from its previous estimate of 19 million tons. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario are currently projecting it at 16.8-17 million tons, slightly below our current estimate.
The loading of five cargo ships in different grains ports in Argentina has been stalled for days due to strikes by port workers, the labor union representing the employees and an industry source said; ADM and the local ACA cooperative have each had a ship waiting since Saturday to complete cargo loading at the companies’ terminals in Puerto General San Martín and San Lorenzo, the shipping hub north of Rosario.
Despite recent dryness, upcoming rainfall maintains 2020/21 Paraguay soybean production – Refinitiv Commodities Research
2020/21 Paraguay soybean production: 10.1 [9.1–11.1] million tons, unchanged from last update
The Russian grain harvest in the 2020/21 season is seen at around 127.5 million tons, the RIA news agency cited the Agricultural Ministry as saying
Russia’s grain export quota is seen at 15 million tons for Feb 15 to June 30 next year, according to a government draft proposal published
Ukrainian corn prices have resumed their upward trend supported by limited offers from growers, analyst APK-Inform said; the prices added around $10 per tonne in the past few days and have reached $235-$272 per ton Carriage Paid To (CPT) Black Sea as of Nov. 11; a high competition between processing and export-oriented companies also supports prices; farmers have collected 19.6 million tons of corn from 4 million hectares, or 72% of the sown area as of Nov. 9, the economy ministry said.
Strategie Grains trims EU + UK wheat, maize crop estimates
Following is a breakdown of monthly estimates from Strategie Grains for cereal crops in the European Union.
PRODUCTION
| 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2020/21 | Change Month | Change 2020/2019 | |
| (Oct) | (Nov) | |||||
| Soft wheat | 128.0 | 146.8 | 129.5 | 129.2 | -0.3 | -17.5 |
| Barley | 55.7 | 62.5 | 63.8 | 63.8 | -0.0 | +1.2 |
| Maize | 61.9 | 64.5 | 62.7 | 62.3 | -0.4 | -2.2 |
| Durum | 8.7 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.2 | +0.0 | -0.3 |
| Rye | 6.3 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 9.1 | +0.2 | +0.9 |
| Other cereals | 21.4 | 22.5 | 24.0 | 24.4 | +0.4 | +1.9 |
| Total | 282.0 | 312.0 | 296.1 | 296.0 | -0.1 | -16.0 |
Continued favorable rainfall maintains large South Africa corn production expectations – Refinitiv Commodities Research
—2020/21 South Africa corn PRODUCTION: 15.0 [11–15.9] MILLION TONS, unchanged from last update
Startups and venture capital are pouring into what might seem an unlikely place: India’s vast, outdated agriculture industry; seizing on controversial new deregulation, entrepreneurs are selling farmers apps to connect them to big buyers nationwide and using artificial intelligence (AI) to improve the rickety supply chains that lose one-fourth of India’s produce to wastage; enormous amounts of India’s grain, fruit and vegetables rot between farm and table because of manual handling, repeated loading and unloading, poor inventory management, lack of adequate storage and slow movement of goods; this rate of wastage from faulty supply chains is four to five times that of most large economies
Indonesia in September exported 2.76 million tons of palm oil and its products, such as oleochemicals, down 15% from the same month last year, data from Indonesian Palm Oil Association showed; September produced 5.19 million tons of the vegetable oil, including kernel oil; its month-end stocks rose to 5.34 million tons in September, from 4.36 million tons in August.
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