USDA and Weather
Today Eric Snodgrass presents short and long range weather outlook in an easy to follow progression followed by Brian split on key chart points.
Feel free to forward
ADMIS AM Comments
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 4 cents, HRW up 5; HRS Wheat up 3, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 3, Soymeal up $1.00, and Soyoil up 20 points.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 52 yuan, down 2 in Corn, down 18 in Soymeal, up 16 in Soyoil, and up 102 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 11 ringgit at 2,440 (basis September) at midsession supported by a weaker ringgit.
U.S. Weather Forecast
Last evening’s GFS model run was notably wetter in the Dakotas and southwestern Minnesota July 21 – 23; the flow aloft will support weather disturbances and complexes of thunderstorms with heavy rain to impact this area.
Another notable rainfall change in last evening’s GFS model run was the increase in the southwestern Corn Belt, in areas such as Missouri, central and southern Illinois, southern Indiana, western Kentucky, southern Iowa, and eastern Kansas, July 23 – 25.
The 6 to 10 day and the 11 to 16 day Midwest weather models are back to conflicting; the GFS is wetter for the Midwest with the European sees less rains and favoring the northern Midwest over the 10 day period; the outlook to the 16 day models has the GFS producing average to a bit below average rains and average temps while, the European sides with ridging.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 32,000 Corn; sold 12,000 Soybeans; net sold 8,000 lots of soymeal, and; sold 2,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 183,000 Corn; net long 78,000 Soybeans; net short 31,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 10,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 5,900 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,900; Corn up 4,000; Soybeans down 8,100 contracts; Soymeal down 490 lots, and; Soyoil down 1,700.
Deliveries were 24 Soymeal; 22 Soyoil; ZERO Rice; ZERO Corn; 25 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; ZERO Soybeans; 57 SRW Wheat, and; N/A HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations (SRW Wheat up 49; HRW Wheat down 5; HRS up 8)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,141 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 10; HRW Wheat 52, and; HRS 1,387.
TODAY—DELIVERABLE STOCKS—LAST TRADING DAY JULY FUTURES—
Tender Activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat—Japan seeks 125,000t optional-origin wheat—S. Korea seeks 140,000t optional-origin corn–
|Category||Analyst average||Analyst range||USDA last week||USDA this week|
|Winter wheat harvested||70||67-75||56||68|
|Spring wheat condition*||70||68-74||70||68|
U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 68% (trade estimate was 70%) versus 56% last week, 54% a year ago, 66% average.
U.S. Spring Wheat headed was 80% versus 63% last week, 72% a year ago, 85% average.
Spring Wheat was rated 68% good to excellent (trade estimate was 70%) versus 70% last week, and 76% a year ago; 24% fair (24% a week ago, 20% a year ago), and; 8% poor to very poor (6% last week, 4% a year ago).
Corn doughing was 3% versus NA% a week ago, 2% last year, and 3% average.
Corn was rated 69% good to excellent (trade estimate was 70%) versus 71% last week, and 58% a year ago; 23% fair (23% last week, 30% last year), 8% poor to very poor (6% last week, 12% last year).
U.S. Oats harvested was 12% versus NA% a week ago, 9% last year, and 12% average.
U.S. Soybeans setting pods was 11% versus 2% a week ago, 3% last year, and 10% average.
U.S. Soybeans were rated 68% good to excellent (trade estimate was 70%) versus 71% a week ago, and 54% a year ago; 25% fair (24% last week, 34% a year ago), and; 7% poor to very poor (5% last week, 12% a year ago).
Unusually warm temperatures prevailed across U.S. corn and soybean growing areas last week, though late-week rains supported field conditions for the Crop Watch farmers, who expect above-average yields at this point; most of the U.S. Corn Belt can expect a break from the heat this week along with periodic showers and storms; that is much improved from earlier forecasts that called for the persistence of the hot and dry weather, and it is good news for the Crop Watch corn fields, many of which are pollinating this week.
EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
The North Dakota grower increased soybean condition to 3 from 2.5 in the previous week following plenty of rain and heat. Corn condition stays at 3. More than 5 inches (127 mm) of rain have fallen over the last two weeks, boosting crop conditions but also making the fields very wet again.
The producer pegs corn yield at 2.5 and soybeans at 3. Only 9% of the corn field and 30% of the soybean field could be planted, and that is not directly factored in to those yield scores but will be noted going forward. Yield is based only off harvested acres, so if one were applying weightings to the Crop Watch yields, North Dakota would have a much smaller contribution.
Both corn and soybean conditions remain at 4.75. Crops were a bit stressed from heat and dryness earlier last week, but a total of 2 inches (51 mm) of rain fell late in the week. The fields also withstood strong windstorms on Saturday. The corn will begin pollinating later this week, and the producer rates both corn and soybean yield potential at 4.5.
The Nebraska producer left soybean condition at 4.25 but reduced corn condition a quarter-point to 4.25 after only 0.3 inch (7.6 mm) of rain fell last week. The corn will be pollinating toward the end of this week, and the crops will need rain over the next several days in order to hold the current yield potential. The grower scores yield at 4.25 apiece.
Condition scores in Kansas hold at 3.5 despite the weather, which was hot and was forecast to be dry. The Crop Watch fields were lucky to receive 1.8 inches (46 mm) of rain and avoid deterioration of conditions. The high humidity was also helpful. Corn is now pollinating, and the week ahead also looks hot and dry. Yield potential is at 3.5 for both crops.
EAST CENTRAL IOWA
The Iowa grower reduced corn condition to 4 from 5 in the prior week because of hail and windstorms that damaged parts of the field on Saturday. The field can recover, but yield could be negatively impacted if the plant recovery occurs at the same time as pollination, which should begin very soon. The producer rates the corn yield potential at 4. The soybeans took some hail and wind, but condition remains at 5 and yield potential is also 5.
Conditions remain at 5 for both fields after nearly an inch (25 mm) of rain fell over the weekend, very timely for the pollinating corn. The crops were showing signs of stress during the week in the heat and dryness, which would have certainly reduced conditions without the rain. The producer pegs yield at 4.5 for both crops since more rain will be needed to realize full potential.
The Indiana producer keeps corn condition at 4.25 but increases soybean condition to 3.75 after an inch of rain fell on Saturday. The corn will be pollinating this week, and the yield potential is 4.5. The soybeans were replanted in late May, and the yield outlook is a bit lower than corn at 3.5.
Corn and soybean conditions in Ohio remain at 4 this week. The fields received 1.3 inches (33 mm) of rain last week, which was very helpful after a long hot and dry stretch. Corn should put out tassels next week, and even though it was planted later than most fields in the state, the producer rates corn yield potential at 4.5. Soybean yield is at 4 since the crop is a bit behind schedule but has made good progress over the last couple weeks.
Trade estimates for USDA grain export inspections – Reuters News
U.S. weekly grain/soybean export inspections – USDA – Reuters News
13-Jul-2020 09:57:44 AM
WEEK ENDED: 07/09/2020 07/02/2020 07/02/2020 07/11/2019
Prelim. Revised Previous
– Wheat 624,211 374,296 326,448 348,918
– Oats 0 100 100 0
– Barley 0 0 0 220
– Corn 902,623 1,034,335 962,445 690,451
– Sorghum 71,265 58,365 51,217 61,686
– Soybeans 483,331 560,655 521,638 855,638
MARKETING YEAR-TO-DATE INSPECTIONS
Current Year Last Year
– Wheat 2,999,460 2,961,060
– Oats 400 299
– Barley 367 2,007
– Corn 35,183,325 43,171,660
– Sorghum 4,139,435 1,770,258
– Soybeans 37,861,230 38,719,589
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had
—Wheat exports running up 1% versus a year ago (11% behind last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year
—Corn 19% behind a year ago (19% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season
—Soybeans are down 2% on the year (down 1% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow said that President Donald Trump is not in a good mood about China because of the coronavirus pandemic, new Hong Kong security laws and the treatment of the Uighurs, but the country is still part of the first phase of its massive trade deal with China.
China’s monthly imports of soybeans leapt to a record high in June, jumping 71% from a year earlier, customs data showed, as a flurry of cargoes arrived from top supplier Brazil; China, the world’s top importer of the oilseed, shipped in 11.16 million tons in June from 6.51 million a year ago and up 19% from 9.38 million tons in May, data from the General Administration of Customs showed; exports from Brazil have picked up since March after weather improved in the South American country.
China imported 4.75 million tons of meat including offal in the first six months of the year, customs data showed, up 73.5% on the same period a year ago; Chinese buyers boosted overseas meat purchases after a collapse in domestic pork production caused by an epidemic of African swine fever; China imported 896,000 tons of meat including offal in June, the data from the General Administration of Customs showed, up 9.8% from 813,000 tons in May.
China’s state grain stockpiler Sinograin is investigating the quality of corn in one of its warehouses in northeastern China, it said in a statement on Sunday, after a video shared on social media alleged that the site was full of moldy, low-grade corn.
Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Brasilia:
Post maintains its corn production forecast for market year (MY) 2019/20 (March 2020 – February 2021) at 100 million metric tons (MMT), based on poor yields in the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana after a prolonged dry spell, partially offset by a large expansion of area in the Center-West state of Mato Grosso.
Post maintains its MY 2020/21 wheat production forecast of 5.6 MMT, which would represent growth of 8.7% year-over-year.
Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Brasilia:
Post forecasts above-trend expansion for the 2020/21 season, with planted area at 38.5 million hectares (ha) and production at 130 million metric tons (MMT); the economic downturn precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic has led to a sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real, pushing domestic soybean prices to record levels; farmers are well-capitalized from this seasons’ revenues and are eager to reinvest these profits
For the 2019/20 season, post estimates exports at 78 MMT based on strong demand from China; soybean crush is estimated at 44 MMT, driven by internal demand for soy oil; biodiesel demand leveled off only slightly, as commercial trucks continue to ply the roads to deliver agricultural commodities to ports; despite difficulties posed by the pandemic, Brazil’s infrastructure links continue to function virtually uninterrupted.
Exports of Russian grain are expected to total 41.7 million tons in the current agricultural season, according to the Russian Federal State Statistics Service; supplies of wheat to the global market may reach 33.2 million tons; that’s in line with pre-pandemic projections from industry experts, who said in February deliveries could be in the range of 32-to-42 million tons.
Euronext wheat fell on Monday, in retreat from a seven-week high struck last week as a stronger euro and profit-taking weakened prices and traders awaited a clearer picture of the forthcoming European harvest; spot September milling wheat settled down 2.25 euros, or 1.2%, at 184.75 euros ($210.12) a ton; the contract had risen on Friday to 189.75 euros, its highest since May 21, before meeting resistance at the 190 euro level and closing slightly lower.
The European Union exported 241,577 tons of soft wheat from July 1-12, the first two weeks of the 2020/21 season, down 62% from the same time in the previous season, European Commission data showed
—EU barley exports for July 1-12 stood at 76,524 tons, down 55%, and maize imports at 357,499 tons, down 53%
—EU 2019/20 soft wheat exports were revised up to 34.70 million tons from the initial estimate of 34.60 million tons, while EU 2019/20 barley exports were increased to 7.61 million tons from 7.54 million tons
—The EU also revised its estimate of maize imports last season to 19.58 million tons, from the 19.52 million projected last week
European Union soybean imports over July 1-12 – the first two weeks of the 2020/21 season – totaled 531,785 tons, down 19% from the previous season, official EU data showed
—EU rapeseed imports for July 1-12 came to 8,902 tons, down 86%
—Soymeal imports stood at 506,060 tons, down 40%
—Palm oil imports were 137,800 tons, down 19%
—EU 2019/20 soybean imports were revised up to 15.36 million tons from an initial estimate of 15.05 million tons, while other oilseed imports had minor revisions