AM Comments

Markets are starting to reflect stimulus as price direction remains good regardless of increased tensions between US- PRC and PRC-India. If this prevails, expect market direction to defy the overwhelming bearish attitude of most industry participants.


WE are buying calls NOW. We have been spending from 1-15 cents depending on the structure you choose. This will help you manage sales for 2020 by neutralizing the upside while allowing your sales to protect you in case the market does decline into fall.


Bill Biedermann



Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 3 cents, HRW up 2; HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans down 2, Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil down 25 points.


Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 55 yuan, up 11 yuan in Corn, up 2 in Soymeal, up 30 in Soyoil, and up 96 in Palm Oil.


Malaysian palm oil prices were down 14 ringgit at 2,267 (basis August) with crude oil price weakness.


U.S. Weather Forecast



A ridge of high pressure will still build into the central U.S. Sunday into Jun. 2; this will lead to net drying in much of the Corn Belt, Delta, and Hard Red Winter Wheat Region; heat from the ridge will extent up into the Dakotas next week as well which will raise evaporation rates


The ridge may persist through the first week of June before it notably weakens and shifts its position


Last night’s GFS model run removed a tropical system out of the Gulf of Mexico that was shown in the midday GFS model run Jun. 8 – 11; the run showed the system southeast of Florida Jun. 10 – 11


The player sheet had funds net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 4,000 Corn; net bought 2,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net short 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 251,000 Corn; net long 16,000 Soybeans; net short 31,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 7,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,200 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,800; Corn up 7,700; Soybeans down 250 contracts; Soymeal up 6,500 lots, and; Soyoil up 155.


There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 121; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS Wheat 488 contracts.





Tender Activity—Japan bought 112,000t U.S/Canadian/Aust wheat—News wires were reporting China bought more than 10 cargoes Brazilian soybeans this week—



CBOT deliverable grain stocks summary – Reuters News

27-May-2020 12:03:00 PM


DELIVERABLE STOCKS OF GRAIN in regular warehouses on the Chicago Board of Trade as of Friday, May 22, 2020.


Location                   WHEAT        CORN    SOYBEANS        OATS        RICE

Chicago                    2,462         109       3,694         144           0

Toledo                     5,970           0           0           0           0

Northwest Ohio             6,623           0           0           0           0

Mississippi River          1,004           0           0           0           0

Ohio River                   147           0           0           0           0

St. Louis                  1,922           0       1,365           0           0

Minneapolis                    0           0           0       9,133           0

Duluth-Superior                0           0           0       2,038           0

Arkansas                       0           0           0           0      11,068

Lockport-Seneca                0         487         244           0           0

Ottawa-Chillicothe             0       2,022       2,515           0           0

Creve Coeur – Pekin            0           1         680           0           0

Havana-Grafton                 0           0       1,805           0           0

TOTALS                    18,128       2,619      10,303      11,315      11,068

Week Ago Totals           18,952       2,895      10,254      11,758      11,560

Year Ago Totals           35,751       3,890      15,713      10,214      18,408



KCBT weekly deliverable HRW wheat stocks – Reuters News

27-May-2020 12:04:00 PM



05/22/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         21,456            21,412            24,202

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded               900               900               900

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               22,356            22,312            25,102


05/22/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         11,190            10,848             8,745

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded                36                37                46

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               11,226            10,885             8,791


05/22/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         18,094            18,849            25,038

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded                 0                 0                 0

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               18,094            18,849            25,038


05/22/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         20,908            21,112            31,211

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded             1,335             1,335             2,141

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               22,243            22,447            33,352



MGEX deliverable HRS wheat stocks – Reuters News



05/25/20        WEEK AGO        YEAR AGO

Deliverable                    3,644           3,660           1,478

Non-deliverable                    0               0               0

CCC stocks                         0               0               0

Total                          3,644           3,660           1,478


05/25/20        WEEK AGO        YEAR AGO

Deliverable                   15,777          17,380          12,431

Non-deliverable                  463             463             463

CCC stocks                         0               0               0

Total                         16,240          17,843          12,894



News wire story was reporting U.S. corn conditions on Tuesday were neither above nor below market expectations because analysts were not expecting to see those numbers at all, but the initial prognosis is relatively positive; the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s statistics service (NASS) on Tuesday rated 70% of the corn crop in good or excellent condition as of Sunday; that is somewhat middle-of-the-road compared with most prior years, but it does suggest that good yields may be on the way if summer weather is supportive; this year’s initial rating is well above last year’s first score of 59%, but below the 2014-2018 average of 73%




China’s agriculturally rich province of Heilongjiang has increased its crop planting area, which will lead to higher rice and corn outputs than last year, according to the provincial department of agriculture and rural affairs; the department said the province has completed planting crops in an area of 14.37 million hectares, which is 33,333 hectares more than last year; the northeastern province produced 75 billion kg of grain last year, which is one-ninth of China’s total output.


China’s biggest hog producer Wens Foodstuffs Group Co Ltd built nine new pig farms in the first quarter and has dozens more under construction, the company’s honorary chairman said, as it aims to triple output over the next four years; like other major producers, Wens is pouring billions of yuan into new pig farms, aiming to seize market share as the sector rebuilds after disease wiped out about 60% of the country’s hog herd last year.


Loading of grains and other products at the port of Paranaguá, Brazil’s second largest, resumed normally on Wednesday after a case of COVID-19 paralyzed work in berth 214 for about 24 hours, according to the port authority.


Chinese commodities trader COFCO International said on Wednesday it will use its 12A terminal in Brazil’s Santos port to move sugar instead of grains beginning in July and through the end of the year; COFCO, which manages four sugar and ethanol facilities in Brazil, said the change was a result of higher sugar production in the country this year


In a statement, it said it plans to keep its Brazilian corn export program by using third party infrastructure; Brazil is sharply ramping up sugar production this year, with some analysts expecting output to grow by as much as 10 million tons, as a result of falling prices and demand for ethanol


Brazilian food company BRF SA said the potential closure of slaughterhouses due the spread of the novel coronavirus at meat production sites would make it impossible to keep output at current levels; there are no BRF plants closed due to the outbreak, but at one point, the company’s Lajeado facility in Rio Grande do Sul state had been shut by authorities to contain the spread of the disease among workers; we have to be aware that if contagion worsens and authorities see the need to close units it is mathematically impossible to ensure production levels


Russia increased exports of grain sharply in March of this year in anticipation of the introduction of the quota on grain exports, the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) indicated


Deliveries of wheat, corn, and barley are limited to a quota of 7 million tons from April 1, 2020 to June 30, 2020


In March of this year, the country exported 4.417 million tons of grain, which was 2-fold more than in February and 73.1% more than in March last year; this included an increase in the export of wheat to 3.66 million tons, which was 2.3-fold more than in February and 89% more than in March last year


March corn exports totaled 469,000 tons, which was 39.7% more than in February and 63.7% more than in March last year


Barley exports did not rise as quickly, having increased just 4.5% against February, while actually decreasing 9.1% to 253,000 tons compared to March last year


According to Rosstat, grain exports totaled 9.545 million tons in Q1 2020, which was up 12.6% against the same period last year; this included the export of wheat at 7.336 million tons, up 11%; barley at 964,000 tons, up 12.5%; and corn at 1.157 million tons, up 39.6%


Ukrainian sunflower oil export prices rose over the past week supported by an increase in trade activity in most importing countries, analyst APK-Inform said


Sunoil asking export prices rose to around $755 per ton FOB Black Sea for June delivery as of May 27 from $725 the week before


It said bid prices also increased to $760 per ton from $735.


Ukrainian sunflower oil prices have been rising for about two months, supported by demand from importers; in early April, Ukrainian sunoil was traded at $670-685 per ton FOB for Black Sea April-June delivery


South Africa will likely harvest 38% more maize in 2020, thanks to favorable weather conditions and higher yields in the Free State and Mpumalanga provinces, the government’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) said; giving its fourth production forecast for the 2020 crop, the CEC estimated output at 15.589 million tons compared with 11.275 million tons harvested in the previous year; the estimate is also 2% higher than the CEC’s April estimate of 15.221 million tons


Zambia’s 2019/2020 season maize production will increase 69% to 3.387 million tons from 2.004 million tons in the previous season, the Agriculture Minister said; taking into account all the requirements and post-harvest losses, the country is expected to have a surplus of 210,099 tons


Turkey’s grain production is expected to increase by 7.9% year-on-year in 2020 to 37.1 million tons, the Turkish Statistical Institute said; according to the initial estimates for the year

—wheat production is expected to rise 7.9% to 20.5 million ton

—barley production by 8.7% to 8.3 million tons

—oat production is expected to increase by 9% to 289,000 tons