ADMIS Comments 011620

Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 8 cents, HRW down 9, HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is down 4 cents, Soybeans down 3, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 15 points.


Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 19 yuan in Soybeans, up 12 in Corn, up 5 in Soymeal, down 94 in Soyoil, and down 72 in Palm Oil.


The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 21 ringgit at 2,888 (basis March) correcting recent rally.


Grain futures are lower. There is some skepticism on how much US Ag goods China will buy and when. Some feel that except for soybean, pork and dairy products China may wait until after US 2020 fall harvest to begin to buy US Ag goods. March soybeans traded overnight below key support. Overnight, March corn also trade below support. March Chicago wheat is also lower and may be trying to correct and overbought position.


The South American weather forecast for Brazil has not changed much with rains seen falling through much of the region over the next 6 to 10 day period.


The Argentine weather forecast turns dry through the upcoming weekend with rains returning by midweek next week.


The player sheet had funds net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sellers of 9,000 Corn; sold 11,000 Soybeans; sold 4,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 7,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net long 46,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 76,000 Corn; net short 12,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 29,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 95,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 10,800 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,700; Corn up 4,200; Soybeans up 14,000 contracts; Soymeal up 4,400 lots, and; Soyoil up 4,700.


There were changes in registrations (down 2 in Soybeans)—Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 58; Soybeans 161; Soyoil 2,793 lots; Soymeal 1,714; Rice 565; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 788 contracts.





In tender activity—Japan bought 117,000t U.S./Canadian/Australian wheat—Taiwan bought 99,000t U.S wheat—


Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain, soy export sales – Reuters News

Trade estimates for 2019-20 Trade estimates for 2020-21
Wheat 200,000-500,000 0
Corn 300,000-700,000 200,000-250,000
Soybeans 400,000-800,000 0-50,000
Soymeal 75,000-250,000 0
Soyoil 0-25,000 0



Chinese President Xi Jinping told U.S. President Donald Trump in a letter that he welcomes the Phase 1 trade deal reached with the United States and that he is willing to stay in close touch with the American leader.


U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he would remove all U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports as soon as the two countries completed the Phase 2 part of their trade agreement, adding that he does not expect there to be a Phase 3 pact.


China’s pledge to buy U.S. farm goods based on “market conditions” during the Phase 1 trade deal signing ceremony on Wednesday added to doubts among farmers and commodity traders over Beijing’s lingering tariffs on U.S. exports; the agreement, meant to reduce tensions after nearly two years of a tit-for-tat tariff war, included a pledge by China to purchase at least an additional $12.5 billion worth of agricultural goods in 2020 and at least $19.5 billion over the 2017 level of $24 billion in 2021.







The Mexican Supreme Court ruled against the modification of a fuel rule on Wednesday that would have allowed higher ethanol content in gasoline, similar to content rules in the United States, arguing that regulators exceeded their authority; the court’s decision follows a three-year-old modification of a gasoline regulation by Mexico’s Energy Regulatory Commission, or CRE, which sought to allow up to 10% ethanol in gasoline sales nationwide, excluding in the country’s three biggest cities, where air pollution is a long-standing concern; the pre-existing fuel rule allows a maximum 5.8% ethanol content.


Russia’s winter grain crop has not been affected by abnormally warm weather, the RIA news agency reported

—Among sown winter grain, 4% of the crop was classed as in a bad condition, compared with 8% around a year ago

—Russian farmers have planted winter grains for the 2020 crop on 104% of the originally planned area, or some 18.2 million hectares compared with 17.6 million hectares a year ago


Bangladesh will increase its wheat purchases from Ukraine if Russian grain becomes unavailable because of new export curbs being considered by Moscow, the Bangladesh’s agriculture minister said; Russia said it was looking to set a non-tariff quota for grain exports of 20 million tons for the first half of 2020


Strikes over pension reform in France have led to production outages at some livestock feed factories as companies have struggled to bring in enough crop supplies, farm sector representatives said


Euronext wheat futures extended a rally on Wednesday to a new one-year high as transport snags caused by strikes in France and uncertainty over Russia’s export policy kept attention on tightening global supply.





Irish farmers paralyzed parts of central Dublin for the second time in as many months by parking more than 100 tractors in the streets on Wednesday in a protest against the government on the first day of its re-election campaign.


India’s palm oil imports in December fell 8.6% from a year ago as a rally in prices prompted refiners to shift to rival soyoil, a leading trade body said; lower purchases by India could weigh on Malaysian palm oil prices but support soyoil prices

—India imported 741,490 tons of palm oil in December, while soyoil imports nearly doubled from a year ago to 168,048 tons, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India said


Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the January 1-15 period are estimated up 2.2% on month at 585,251 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said