ADMIS AM Comments USDA pre-report 110819

By ADM Investor Services Research Team


Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 2 cents in the SRW Wheat, down 1 in HRW, and down 2 for HRS; Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 1; Soymeal down $0.50, and; Soyoil up 5 points.


For the week, Winter Wheat prices are down roughly 6 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 7 in the Hard Red Winter, and down 14 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is down 15 cents; Soybeans down 1 cent; Soymeal up $1.00, and; Soyoil up 45 points (crushing margins are up 7 cents at $0.92, oil-share is up 1% at 34%).


Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 30 yuan in Soybeans, down 11 in Corn, down 7 in Soymeal, up 26 in Soyoil, and up 20 in Palm Oil.


The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 51 ringgit at 2,579 (basis January) on ideas of only modest production gains.


An agreement between the United States and China to roll back existing tariffs as part of a ‘phase one’ trade deal faces fierce internal opposition at the White House and from outside advisers, multiple sources familiar with the talks said. There were reports yesterday that China may have bought up to 15 cargoes of US soybean this week. Shipment period may have been Nov/Dec.


The U.S. 11 to 16 Day Outlook for the Plains and Midwest continues with a warming temp forecast to the region for the period with but an increase in precip.


The South American weather forecast still has rains for most of Brazil with rainfall also in Argentina except in the region of Buenos Aires.  Temps average to below in Argentina, average to above in Brazil.


In deliveries, Soybeans totaled ZERO contracts.


The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 17,000 Corn; bought 9,000 Soybeans; bought 8,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 6,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net long 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 120,000 Corn; net long 86,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 25,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 71,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 300 contracts; HRW Wheat down 10,000; Corn down 19,800; Soybeans up 1,300 contracts; Soymeal down 16,600 lots, and; Soyoil down 4,300.


There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 216; Soybeans 1,769; Soyoil 1,516 lots; Soymeal 710; Rice 805; HRW Wheat 11, and; HRS Wheat 669 contracts.





For the week ended October 31st, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 9% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 26% with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year


U.S. Corn sales are running 43% behind a year ago, shipments 63% behind with the USDA forecasting an 8% decline.


U.S. Soybean sales are running 2% behind a year ago, shipments 14% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year


U.S. Agriculture Is Still at Risk, Even If There’s a Trade Deal——- Barrons

—Investors in the commodities sector have closely tracked developments tied to U.S. trade policy, with the possibility of a resolution between Washington and Beijing providing a boost to commodities and raising hopes for demand that get dashed whenever expectations of an agreement fade; the effects of the trade war, however, go well beyond the day-to-day dealings in commodities such as soybeans and cotton, as the ongoing conflict forces U.S. trading partners to seek new suppliers; U.S. agriculture is at a growing risk of both further losing market share in China, but also not being able to regain that share back


The U.S. Agriculture Department is preparing to roll out the second tranche of aid to compensate farmers for losses due to the U.S.-China trade war, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said


Grain merchant Archer Daniels Midland Co is waiving the fees it charges farmers to dry grain at three of its Midwestern corn processors as it seeks supplies to keep the plants running at optimum levels through a slow, wet harvest period; farmers, who are weeks behind schedule in much of the U.S. corn belt due to rainy harvest conditions, have been reluctant to sell their grain at current price levels


US Senators representing Corn Belt states have submitted comments on the EPA’s latest ethanol proposal, blasting it as a kneecapping of initiatives to support biofuel producers


A cargo of American soybeans booked in the hope it would be exempt from tariffs has been offloaded in China after about a one-week delay due to a dispute between the buyer and customs officials over duty payments. The cargo had been sitting at a port in northeastern China for about a week after customs demanded payment of the 33% duties on U.S. soybeans; the beans are still under custody, and can not be crushed until after the company pays the (extra) tariffs


Ocean freight rates for shipping bulk grains fall to their lowest levels in 12 weeks, the USDA says in its Grain Transportation Report. The rate is currently $49.50 per metric ton, the USDA says, which is a 2% decline from last week, although still 5% more than the start of the year. It’s the lowest rate for shipping from the Gulf since early August; lower rates to export grain may make US exports more desirable, but the USDA doesn’t believe the price will stay low for long.


Wire story had analysts polled ahead of Friday’s monthly update from the U.S. Department of Agriculture expect domestic corn and soybean supplies to come in lighter than in October, but this week, the corn market has traded as if the opposite will happen.










Trade estimates for USDA November U.S. corn, soy production – Reuters News


Corn Soybeans
Output Yield Harv.area Output Yield Harv.area
Average trade estimate 13.643 167.5 81.455 3.510 46.6 75.422
Highest trade estimate 13.785 168.5 81.820 3.609 47.6 75.900
Lowest trade estimate 13.372 165.5 80.100 3.396 45.5 75.100
USDA October 13.779 168.4 81.815 3.550 46.9 75.626



Trade estimates for USDA November U.S. grain end-stocks – Reuters News


Wheat Corn Soy
Average trade estimate 1.035 1.817 0.428
Highest trade estimate 1.073 1.959 0.494
Lowest trade estimate 1.003 1.481 0.306
USDA October 1.043 1.929 0.460



Trade estimates for USDA November world crop end-stocks – Reuters News


Wheat Corn Soy
Average trade estimate 287.03 300.31 93.85
Highest trade estimate 288.00 304.35 95.74
Lowest trade estimate 285.07 291.10 88.00
USDA October 287.80 302.55 95.21



China on Friday raised its estimates for soybean imports in 2019/20 by 2.2 million tons to 86.2 million tons from last month, as trade relations with major supplier United States improved, and on future diversification of its sources of imports.

—China imported 6.18 million tons of soybeans in October, down 24.6 percent from 8.20 million tons in September, figures from the General Administration of Customs of China showed.

—Imports of vegetable oils in October were 912,000 tons, up 8.6 percent from the previous month


China’s pork imports will reach record levels of as much as 4.6 million tons next year, Dutch financial services firm Rabobank said; China’s pork imports are already set to surpass previous records this year, reaching between 3.1 million and 3.3 million tons including offal, the bank said in a report, up from 2.1 million tons last year.


Wheat in the south of Argentina’s agricultural area could suffer further yield damage if it does not receive significant rainfall over the days ahead, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said; last month, the exchange cut its 2019/20 wheat estimate to 18.8 million tons, due to bad weather over recent months.


Forward sales of Argentine corn and soybeans are zooming higher versus last year as growers hedge against possible increases in export taxes under President Alberto Fernandez, who is set to take office on Dec. 10; with nearly half of this year’s corn already sown, and soy planting recently begun, farmers have sold 12.4 million tons of corn and 7.2 million tons of soy versus 4.6 million and 2.9 million, respectively, at this point last year.


Farmers in South America are holding back on purchasing more farm equipment until the US and China resolve their trade standoff, says the CEO of CNH Industrial, maker of Case IH and New Holland farm machinery; factory shipments of new farm tractors in Brazil were down 21% in October from a year earlier, while shipments of new combines were off 38%


Russia will export 7 million-8 million tons of grain worth $1.5 billion-$1.7 billion in November-December 2019, the Agriculture Minister said at; this will bring grain exports for the calendar year up to about 40 million-41 million tons


French farmers had harvested 79% of this year’s grain maize crop by Nov. 4, up from 65% a week earlier, farm office FranceAgriMer said

—Harvest progress remained slower than last year, when 98% of the crop had been gathered by the same point

—sowing of soft wheat for next year’s harvest was 67% complete, up from 54% the previous week and compared with 85% a year earlier


Farmers in South Africa are concerned that a drought and hot weather could delay the coming season’s plantings of grain crops and damage yields; in certain areas it is very, very dry; we are concerned about parts of the Limpopo Province, big parts of Northern Cape, Eastern Cape and parts of the Western Cape,” said agricultural industry body AgriSA