Please make sure to listen, especially the part where Matt Bennett demonstrates how yield effects your BE
Subject: AgMarket Weekly Meeting June 8th 2020
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/recording/3035208853007445761
Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 1 cent, HRW up 3; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans up 1, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil up 5 points.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 101 yuan, up 7 yuan in Corn, down 3 in Soymeal, up 18 in Soyoil, and up 78 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 6 ringgit at 2,394 (basis August) at midsession supported by latest trade data.
U.S. Weather Forecast
Last night’s GFS model run was similar to the midday GFS model run in showing no rain of significance in the central and southwest plains, such as the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, southwestern Kansas, and West Texas; not much rain is likely in this area the next two weeks and drought will worsen and expand some raising concern for unirrigated summer grains, oilseeds, and cotton
Much of the Hard Red Winter Wheat Region will likely be dry Wednesday – Jun. 19 other than a few isolated thunderstorms followed by some increase in thunderstorm activity mostly in northern and eastern parts of the region
Last night’s GFS model run was notably wetter in the Corn Belt Jun. 19 – 24; the increase was due to a frontal boundary and various associated weather disturbances shown to shift south into the region.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 15,000 Corn; were net even in Soybeans; net sold 2,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 1,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 274,000 Corn; net long 21,000 Soybeans; net short 49,000 lots of Soymeal, and; are net long 15,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 1,600 contracts; HRW Wheat down 490; Corn up 13,300; Soybeans up 1,300 contracts; Soymeal down 4,800 lots, and; Soyoil down 2,300.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 106; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS Wheat 488 contracts.
TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—
Tender Activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat—Philippines seek 168,000t optional-origin feed wheat—Thailand passed on 240,000t optional-origin feed wheat, bought Australian barley—China bought 80,000t Argentine sorghum—Wires report China bought 120,000t U.S. soybeans—
CBOT deliverable grain stocks summary – Reuters News
09-Jun-2020 12:03:00 PM
Location WHEAT CORN SOYBEANS OATS RICE
Chicago 2,274 106 3,226 96 0
Toledo 5,148 0 0 0 0
Northwest Ohio 6,411 0 0 0 0
Mississippi River 1,093 0 0 0 0
Ohio River 146 0 0 0 0
St. Louis 1,510 0 1,345 0 0
Minneapolis 0 0 0 8,336 0
Duluth-Superior 0 0 0 1,586 0
Arkansas 0 0 0 0 9,755
Lockport-Seneca 0 430 174 0 0
Ottawa-Chillicothe 0 1,877 2,702 0 0
Creve Coeur – Pekin 0 0 922 0 0
Havana-Grafton 0 0 1,936 0 0
TOTALS 16,582 2,413 10,305 10,018 9,755
Week Ago Totals 17,527 2,594 11,261 10,590 10,385
Year Ago Totals 34,248 3,492 15,744 10,449 17,287
KCBT weekly deliverable HRW wheat stocks – Reuters News
09-Jun-2020 12:03:00 PM
HUTCHINSON, KANSAS
06/05/20 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 21,097 21,425 23,357
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 900 900 900
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 21,997 22,325 24,257
—
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI/KANSAS
06/05/20 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 10,944 11,035 8,662
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 37 37 46
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 10,981 11,072 8,708
—
SALINA, KANSAS
06/05/20 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 17,745 18,127 23,672
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 0 0 0
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 17,745 18,127 23,672
—
WICHITA, KANSAS
06/05/20 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 19,122 19,850 29,921
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 2,004 2,004 1,894
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 21,126 21,854 31,815
MGEX deliverable HRS wheat stocks – Reuters News
09-Jun-2020 12:03:00 PM
MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL RED WING
06/07/20 WEEK AGO YEAR AGO
Deliverable 4,064 3,705 1,485
Non-deliverable 0 0 0
CCC stocks 0 0 0
Total 4,064 3,705 1,485
—
DULUTH/SUPERIOR
06/07/20 WEEK AGO YEAR AGO
Deliverable 14,831 15,665 11,729
Non-deliverable 463 463 463
CCC stocks 0 0 0
Total 15,294 16,128 12,192
The rally across commodities has gotten ahead of fundamentals with the exception of metals, Goldman Sachs said in a note, adding that it was hesitant to recommend a long position this early in the cycle; the Wall Street bank sees downside risks in agricultural and energy markets, citing the recent strength as surprising given the massive inventory overhangs and depressed demand; without a shift in balances, any rally in physical commodity markets is unsustainable,” Goldman said, adding the climb was “too much, too fast in oil, but not metals; ” the metals markets are tight and “extremely strong” Chinese demand from construction and infrastructure sectors in May has exceeded even the most optimistic projections.
Manitoba crop report
—Intense thunderstorms crossed much of southeastern Manitoba over the weekend and into Monday evening; all regions are nearly complete seeding, including reseeding from frost, wind and insect damage; crop growth and emergence is doing well, despite challenging spring conditions
Brazilian crop agency Conab raised slightly its estimate for soybean production for the 2019-2020 growing season while cutting its forecast for the corn crop because of bad weather in some areas
—Brazilian farmers produced 120.4 million metric tons of soybeans this season; in May, the agency forecast a crop of 120.3 million tons; Brazil produced 115.03 million tons of soybeans in 2018-2019 after setting the previous record of 119.3 million tons in 2017-2018
—Brazil will produce a total of 101 million metric tons of corn this season, up slightly from the 100.04 million tons produced in 2018-2019, but down from Conab’s May forecast of 102.3 million tons; Conab cut its forecast for the winter corn crop to 74.2 million tons from 75.9 million tons
—Brazil’s new corn-growing frontier in northern and northeastern states is boosting the country’s total output of the crop; the states of Bahia, Sergipe, Alagoas, Pernambuco and Roraima all grow corn in a similar period as countries in the northern hemisphere, and government agricultural agency Conab has designated their output as a third crop, after the usual summer and winter crops; Conab raised Tuesday its forecast for production in the third crop to 1.33 million metric tons, from the May forecast of 1.17 million tons
Argentina’s state takeover of embattled soy crusher Vicentin is stirring up the country’s giant export market of processed soy, the largest in the world, handing the government a strategic toehold in the important sector; the country’s center-left Peronist President Alberto Fernandez announced the plan on Monday to rescue the near hundred-year-old firm that had been Argentina’s top exporter of soymeal and soybean oil before hitting financial trouble late last year; Vicentin, which has an important crushing joint venture with Glencore, has missed payments to banks and suppliers and was heavily indebted to Argentina’s Banco de la Nacion; its operations, barring the JV, have been largely idled since; the government is sending a bill to Congress to pave the way for a formal state takeover, whereby Vicentin would be overseen by the agricultural arm of state energy firm YPF.
Russian agricultural consultancy SovEcon has raised its forecast for the country’s 2020 wheat crop to 82.7 million tonnes, up from its previous forecast of 81.2 million tonnes, it said; SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s grain crop to 128.6 million tonnes from 126.3 million tonnes.
Farm office FranceAgriMer increased its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union this season to 13.45 million tonnes from 13.3 million estimated last month; the projected exports for the 2019/20 that ends on June 30, which would mark a record volume, would be 39.1% above last season’s; the office lowered its outlook for soft wheat stocks at the end of this season to 2.8 million tonnes from 2.9 million last month.
Australia raised its estimate for wheat production in the 2020/21 season by more than 25% after recent heavy rains broke a three-year drought that has ravaged the country’s east coast; the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) said wheat production for the year ending June 30, 2021 will total 26.7 million tonnes, up from its March estimate of 21.3 million tonnes.
Malaysia end-May palm oil stocks fall for first time three months
- May stocks fell 0.5% to 2.03 mln tonnes
- Production down 0.09%; exports surge higher-than-expected at 10.7%
Breakdown of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board figures and estimates for December (volumes in tons)
| May 2020 | May 2020 poll | April 2020* | May 2019 | |
| Output | 1,651,328 | 1,705,000 | 1,652,771 | 1,671,467 |
| Stocks | 2,034,480 | 2,247,272 | 2,044,498 | 2,447,441 |
| Exports | 1,368,619 | 1,323,000 | 1,236,438 | 1,711,882 |
| Imports | 37,101 | 50,000 | 56,596 | 61,789 |
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for June 1 – 10 rose 61.7 percent to 545,360 tonnes from 337,255 tonnes shipped during May 1 – 10, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said
MALAYSIA’S JUNE 1-10 PALM OIL EXPORTS SEEN AT 550,341 TONNES VERSUS MAY 1-10 AT 344,983 TONNES – AMSPEC MALAYSIA
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