ADMIS AM Comments


By ADM Investor Services Research Team


Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 3 cents in the SRW Wheat, down 3 in HRW, and up 1 for HRS; Corn is down 4 cents; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $2.00, and; Soyoil down 5 points.


Chinese Ag futures (September) settled down 31 yuan in Soybeans, unchanged in Corn, down 23 in Soymeal, down 2 in Soyoil, and up 10 in Palm Oil.


The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 2 ringgit at 1,986 (basis October) at midsession.


The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has rainfall over the next 5 days has moderate to light amounts favoring MN, WI and N. IA, as well as down into southern IL and most of IN/OH with more moderate amounts; little in the way of rainfall is seen elsewhere; the 6-10 Day Forecast has moderate amounts of rainfall in MN, WI and MI, with totals light amounts in the remainder of the region.


The Plains over the next 1 to 5 days has light amounts of rainfall for around half of the region; the 6 to 10 day forecast as fairly limited rainfall.


World Weather, Inc.


The player sheet had funds net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 26,000 Corn; sold 7,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 3,000 Soymeal, and; were net even in Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net long 42,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 208,000 Corn; net short 28,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 16,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 24,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 4,400 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,500; Corn down 2,500; Soybeans down 10,300 contracts; Soymeal up 125 lots, and; Soyoil up 3,200 lots.


There were changes in registrations (Corn down 3; Soybeans down 103)–Registrations total 25 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1,825; Soybeans 159; Soyoil 3,547 lots; Soymeal 745; Rice 1,036; HRW Wheat 5, and; HRS Wheat 1,176 contracts.





In tender activity—Taiwan seeks 90,650t U.S. wheat—


U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters he expects to have another telephone call with Chinese officials this week as part of resumed discussions about a trade agreement; Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer followed up with a phone call with Chinese trade officials last week, but no details have been released about an expected in-person meeting; “To the extent that we make significant progress, I think there’s a good chance we’ll go there later”.

—China’s Foreign Ministry said that it was misleading to suggest Beijing needed a trade deal with the United States because its economy was slowing, following a tweet by U.S. President Donald Trump; China’s economic growth was not bad


U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 57% (trade estimate was 62%) versus 47% last week, 72% a year ago, 71% average. Spring Wheat was rated 76% good to excellent (trade estimate was 78%) versus 78% last week, and 80% average.


Corn silking was 17% versus 8% a week ago, 59% last year, and 42% average. Corn was rated 58% good to excellent (trade estimate was 56%) versus 57% last week, and 72% a year ago.


U.S. Soybeans blooming were 22% versus 10% a week ago, 62% a year ago, and 49% average. Soybeans were rated 54% good to excellent (trade estimate was 53%) versus 53% a week ago, and 69% a year ago.


Crop Watch: Rain needed as corn begins pollination in the heat -Braun – Reuters News

Hot temperatures will grip the U.S. Corn Belt this week, and up to five of the eight Crop Watch corn fields may be pollinating during this time, but expected showers in the eastern areas could help minimize some of the negative effects of the warmth. Later-planted soybeans continue to grow very slowly after starting in such wet conditions, but now all but one producer would like rain on both their corn and soybean fields.



The North Dakota producer left all ratings unchanged on the week: corn condition 3, corn yield 2, soybean condition 2.5, and soybean yield 2.5. The corn is expected to pollinate in the first or second week of August, and the beans are very small and have a long way to go. The fields are behind on heat units and are still overcoming excessive late spring and early summer rainfall. The North Dakota grower is the only one of the eight producers to say that a dry finish to July would help his crops.



The Minnesota producer bumped up soybean condition to 4.25 from 4 last week but left all other ratings the same: corn condition 4.25, corn yield potential 3, and soybean yield at 3.5. The corn is about 7 feet (2.13 m) tall and is expected to start tasseling in a week. The emergence of tassels begins the important pollination period for corn. The soybeans are roughly knee-high and flowering, which is the beginning of their reproductive stage. The producer reports that the ground is dry for the first time all season after just 0.1 inch (2.5 mm) of rain last week.



The Nebraska grower left corn condition and yield unchanged at 4 and 3.5, respectively, but increased soybean condition to 3 and soybean yield to 3.5, both increases of 0.5 on the week. Soybean vegetative growth has been favorable and the bug problem has been contained. Corn is tasseling now and should begin pollination in hot temperatures on Thursday, and that will last about seven to nine days. Some 60% of the soybean field is pivot-irrigated. The pivots have not been turned on yet this year, but the topsoil moisture is nearly gone.



Condition and yield scores were left unchanged for the Kansas fields: corn condition and yield at 3.5 and soybean condition and yield at 3. Corn should start tasseling by the end of this week, though there are a lot of spots in the field that never recovered from being flooded. The soybeans are very behind from overly wet and cool weather earlier in the season, and there are no flowers yet. Ideally, the producer would like up to an inch (25 mm) of rain this week to help combat the hot temperatures.



The Iowa producer left soybean condition unchanged at 4 but reduced all other ratings by 0.25 each: corn condition to 4.25, corn yield to 3.75, and soybean yield to 3.25. The corn scores declined due to hot and dry conditions for pollination this week. There was little to no rain last week and not much in the forecast this week, and the soils are dry. The corn tassels have emerged and the soybeans are just starting to set pods, but that process is moving very slowly. The grower reports that later-planted crops in the area are not taking well to the recent heat.



The Illinois grower increased all scores this week: corn condition to 3.75 from 3.25, corn yield to 2 from 1, soybean condition to 3.5 from 3.25, and soybean yield to 3 from 2.75. The crops received an unexpected rainfall of 1.6 inches (41 mm) last week, which was especially helpful for the corn after an extra nitrogen application. Yields should be above average in the normal parts of the field, but there is a lot of variation. Corn ranges from 3 feet to 7 feet (0.9 m to 2.1 m) in height, and the soybeans are knee-high, save one-quarter of the field that was replanted and still short. Tassels are just starting to come out on the most mature corn in the field.



The Indiana grower left both yield scores unchanged at 3, but he reduced both condition scores to 2 from 3 last week. The last 10 days have been very hot and dry and the plants are starting to show stress. The corn will be pollinating this week under very warm temperatures, but the forecasted rain, if realized, could help limit some of the damage. The producer also notes there are many unplanted fields in his area just northwest of Indianapolis.



The Ohio producer left corn condition, corn yield and soybean condition all unchanged at 4 and soybean yield unchanged at 3.5. Corn tassels will probably emerge on Wednesday. Soybean growth has been very slow and the plants are just beginning to bloom. The weather was dry last week and the upcoming week will be hot, just when corn pollination begins. There is some rain in the forecast, and this would be helpful to combat the warmer weather. The producer says rain is needed through the rest of the season to finish the crops.



Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running 31% ahead of a year ago (48% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 1% increase on the year. Corn 11% behind a year ago (10% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season. Soybeans 24% behind a year ago (25% last week) with the USDA having a 20% decline forecasted on the year



The U.S. soybean crush dropped by more than expected in June to the lowest level in 21 months, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA)


—NOPA processed 148.843 million bushels of soybeans in June, down from 154.796 million bushels in May and 159.228 million bushels crushed in June 2018; it was the smallest monthly soybean crush since September 2017; the crush had been expected to dip modestly to 154.405 million bushels


—Soybean oil stocks declined to a six-month low of 1.535 billion pounds by the end of June, down from 1.581 billion pounds at the end of May and below the 1.766 billion pounds at the end of June 2018; analysts expected soyoil stocks to slip to 1.527 billion pounds


—June soymeal exports fell to a 21-month low of 554,867 tons, down from 617,318 tons in May and 857,275 tons in June 2018



Argentine farmers are expected to harvest 21.5 million tons of wheat in the 2019/20 season, the Rosario Grains Exchange said (USDA at 20.0 mt); the 2019/2020 wheat planting area estimate was 6.87 million hectares, the highest sowing level in 18 years

—The country’s 2019/20 corn harvest was estimated to reach 51 million tons, a slight uptick from the exchange’s previous forecast of 50.5 million ton (USDA at 50 mt)


Russia’s IKAR agriculture consultancy has lowered its 2019 wheat output forecast to 77.5 million tons from 78.5 million tons previously, it said; the consultancy said in a statement it may cut its forecast further in the future (the USDA is currently at 74.2 mt).


Russia has harvested 32.7 million tons of grain with an average yield of 3.71 tons per hectare, data from the Agriculture Ministry showed; it had harvested 27.2 million tons with an average yield of 3.76 tons on the same date a year earlier.


Russian wheat export prices rose slightly last week after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) unexpectedly cut its crop forecasts and domestic producers held back sales in expectation of higher prices down the line, analysts said

—Black Sea new-crop prices for wheat with 12.5% protein content were $194 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $1 from a week earlier, Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR said

—SovEcon quoted FOB wheat for July delivery as mostly flat last week, edging down $0.50 to $192.50 a ton


Ukraine saw a record high export of 50.4 million tons of grain and leguminous crops in the 2018/2019 marketing year (MY, July 2018 through June 2019), which was 26.3% more than on the same date of the previous MY.


European Union soft wheat exports over July 1-14 – the first two weeks of the 2019/20 season – came to 399,000 tons, European Commission data showed


European Union soybean imports over July 1-14, the first two weeks of the 2019/20 season, came to 608,000 tons, European Commission data showed

EU soymeal imports for July 1-14 were 760,000 tons and EU palm oil imports were 101,000 tons


Germany’s 2019 wheat harvest will increase 17.7% on the year to 23.8 million tons as expectations of a recovery intensify after drought devastated last year’s crop, Germany’s association of farm cooperatives (DRV) said

—Germany’s 2019 winter rapeseed crop will fall 19.0% percent on the year to 2.97 million tons after reduced sowings

—The association had in its previous harvest forecast on June 5 estimated Germany’s 2019 wheat harvest at 24.70 million tons and the winter rapeseed crop at 3.07 million tons after reduced sowings


Egypt has bought 3.27 million tons of local wheat this harvest season, the Agriculture Ministry said; the supply minister said last week that the local wheat supply season would close on Monday, July 15.


Malaysia kept its export duty on crude palm oil for August unchanged at zero percent, according to a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s website; the duty has been at zero percent since September.