ADMIS AM Comments

This information is from ADMIS

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 6 cents, HRW down 5; HRS Wheat down 5, Corn is down 4 cents; Soybeans down 8; Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 70 points.

 

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 74 yuan in soybeans, down 3 in Corn, down 62 in Soymeal, down 150 in Soyoil, and down 148 in Palm Oil.

 

Malaysian palm oil prices were down 162 ringgit at 3,229 (basis April) at midsession on export demand concerns, India import tax hikes.

 

South America Weather Forecast

 

In Argentina, net drying is expected across much of the region through next Tuesday. Soil moisture is good enough in most of the nation’s production region to prevent much crop stress from developing in week 1 of the outlook; however, the area most at risk for some increase of stress is southeastern La Pampa and southwestern Buenos Aires where soil moisture is lowest. Greater rain will still likely occur in Arg in week 2.

 

In Brazil, conditions will still be favorable for crops in most of the nation. Significant rain will occur Friday through Tuesday from Mato Grosso through Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Espirito Santo, and southern Bahia.

 

 

SOUTH AMERICA ONE WEEK PRECIP FORECAST

 

 

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 SRW Wheat; sold 22,000 Corn; net sold 12,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 4,000 Soyoil.

 

We estimate Managed Money net long 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 386,000 Corn; net long 145,000 Soybeans; net long 69,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 111,000 Soyoil.

 

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 4,300 contracts; HRW Wheat down

395; Corn down 6,000; Soybeans down 2,100 contracts; Soymeal down 1,200 lots, and; Soyoil up 4,600.

 

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 49 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 169; Soyoil 1,286 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 732; HRW Wheat 91, and; HRS 1,023.

 

 

TODAY—ETHANOL STATS—

 

Tender Activity—Egypt bought 480,000t Russian, French, Romanian wheat (around $311t with freight) —South Korea bought 60,000t optional soymeal—

 

 

CBOT deliverable grain stocks summary – Reuters News

 

Location                   WHEAT        CORN    SOYBEANS        OATS        RICE

Chicago                    3,250       1,580       4,467         170           0

Toledo                    11,212           0           0           0           0

Northwest Ohio             7,471           0           0           0           0

Mississippi River          1,056           0           0           0           0

Ohio River                   156           0           0           0           0

St. Louis                  1,702           0       1,410           0           0

Minneapolis                    0           0           0      13,204           0

Duluth-Superior                0           0           0       2,368           0

Arkansas                       0           0           0           0      17,577

Lockport-Seneca                0       1,152         223           0           0

Ottawa-Chillicothe             0       3,542       2,731           0           0

Creve Coeur – Pekin            0           0         210           0           0

Havana-Grafton                 0           0       1,871           0           0

TOTALS                    24,847       6,274      10,912      15,742      17,577

Week Ago Totals           25,522       6,865      11,843      15,646      17,249

Year Ago Totals           26,052       4,241      14,329      11,617      16,058

 

 

KCBT weekly deliverable HRW wheat stocks – Reuters News

 

HUTCHINSON, KANSAS

01/29/21            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         20,922            20,873            22,850

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded               900               900               900

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               21,822            21,773            23,750

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI/KANSAS

01/29/21            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         10,251            10,411            11,292

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded                82                37                38

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               10,333            10,448            11,330

SALINA, KANSAS

01/29/21            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         19,197            19,130            25,864

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded                 0                 0                 0

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               19,197            19,130            25,864

WICHITA, KANSAS

01/29/21            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         25,247            25,545            25,238

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded               552               652             1,875

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               25,799            26,197            27,113

 

MGEX deliverable HRS wheat stocks – Reuters News

 

MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL RED WING

01/31/21        WEEK AGO        YEAR AGO

Deliverable                    4,808           4,781           3,535

Non-deliverable                    0               0               0

CCC stocks                         0               0               0

Total                          4,808           4,781           3,535

DULUTH/SUPERIOR

01/31/21        WEEK AGO        YEAR AGO

Deliverable                   17,549          17,470          17,966

Non-deliverable                  463             463             463

CCC stocks                         0               0               0

Total                         18,012          17,933          18,429

 

 

The White House wants to tap a pool of funds from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) to support on-the-farm efforts to fight climate change, Tom Vilsack, President Joe Biden’s nominee to run the USDA. The Depression-era program of up to $30 billion in annual funding was tapped by the Trump administration to distribute billions of dollars in aid to cover farmers’ lost sales due to trade wars, primarily with China. Now it could help advance a Biden policy priority: combating climate change.

 

Wire story reports stocks of corn held by Chinese feed makers and other commercial grain users have jumped to multi-year highs in some areas, indicating that heavy corn users remain concerned about crop shortages even in the wake of the recent harvest. China’s industrial corn users have snapped up the grain to feed a fast-recovering hog sector since 2019, propelling local corn prices 50% higher during 2020 and triggering record crop imports, including China’s largest ever U.S. corn deal just last week. Many of the purchases were for immediate use, but buyers also replenished stocks in anticipation of enduring supply tightness. They kept buying even as farmers harvested one of China’s largest ever corn crops estimated at over 260 million tonnes last month. The stockpiling comes after corn production was hit last year by typhoons and as steady government auctions depleted state reserves just as demand from the hog sector recovered from a deadly African swine fever outbreak. Argentine grains exports were disrupted by roadblocks set up by truckers around ports in Buenos Aires province, with the protests expected to move north to the country’s main shipping hub of Rosario, local industry sources said. The pickets by drivers demanding lower taxes, tolls and fuel prices as well as set fee schedules to be paid by farmers for transportation, were set to reach the main agricultural export hub of Rosario at midnight, the truckers said. About 80% of Argentina’s farm exports are shipped from Rosario terminals.

 

 

 

 

China’s buying spree of French and Canadian barley is spilling into the 2021/22 crop with large forward purchases, due to its major feed grain needs and a prohibitive tariff on Australian barley, traders and analysts said. China has been sweeping up huge volumes of foreign crops to help feed a pig herd being rebuilt after a disease epidemic. In barley, an 80.5% tariff slapped on Australian supplies last year, amid diplomatic tensions with Canberra, has focused demand on other suppliers. A large amount of Canada’s 2021 barley crop has already been booked by Chinese buyers, traders said, with one citing at least one million tonnes. That would be in line with at least one million tonnes of new-crop European barley thought to have been sold so far, traders said.

 

Argentine grains exports were disrupted by roadblocks set up by truckers around ports in Buenos Aires province, with the protests expected to move north to the country’s main shipping hub of Rosario, local industry sources said. The pickets by drivers demanding lower taxes, tolls and fuel prices as well as set fee schedules to be paid by farmers for transportation, were set to reach the main agricultural export hub of Rosario at midnight, the truckers said. About 80% of Argentina’s farm exports are shipped from Rosario terminals.

 

Argentina exports of soy products rebounded in January; Brazil soymeal exports remain strong in 2021 – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Refinitiv’s trade flows tracked 1.6 million tons of Argentina soymeal shipments in January, up 38% from last year. Argentina soyoil exports were seen at 477 thousand tons, the highest January exports since 2017. Relatively high exports may be attributed to the delayed cargo ships by December’s strikes.

 

Euronext front-month wheat futures turned higher on Tuesday after an earlier one-week low as a large sale of French wheat to Egypt boosted export sentiment. March milling wheat settled up 2.50 euros, or 1.1%, at 226.00 euros ($271.52) a tonne. It earlier fell to 222.25 euros, its lowest since Jan. 25, before again holding support around 222 euros. Further-away delivery positions for 2021 crop ended slightly lower. Euronext front-month prices had been retreating from a 7-1/2 year high of 240.25 euros in mid-January in line with a pullback in Chicago wheat.

 

Indonesia palm oil production drops on persistent adverse weather conditions – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Localized adverse weather conditions fractionally lower 2020/21 Indonesia palm oil production to 46.0 [43.3-59.7] million tons, down 1.7% from last update. In January, wetter-than-normal weather conditions persisted across core palm oil provinces in Indonesia.

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