We discuss the market’s bullish reaction to numbers that were actually very close to the pre-report estimates.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/recording/5409247976244598274
Bill Biedermann
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 25,000 SRW Wheat; bought 58,000 Corn; net bought 33,000 Soybeans; bought 13,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 1,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 36,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 378,000 Corn; net long 226,000 Soybeans; net long 109,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 107,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 6,400 contracts; HRW Wheat down 560; Corn up 39,100; Soybeans up 2,000 contracts; Soymeal down 1,700 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,900.
Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil; Rice 1; and 11 Soybeans.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 49 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 131; Soyoil 1,289 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 671; HRW Wheat 91, and; HRS 1,023.
TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—
Tender Activity—S. Korea seeks 66,000t optional-origin corn—
TABLE-USDA January crop supply/demand, stocks report summary – Reuters News
U.S. quarterly stocks as of Dec. 1, in billions of bushels:
| USDA Dec. 1 | Average of | Range of | USDA | USDA | |
| estimate | analysts’ | analysts’ | Sept. 1, | Dec. 1, | |
| estimates | estimates | 2020 | 2019 | ||
| Wheat | 1.674 | 1.695 | 1.585-1.827 | 2.159 | 1.841 |
| Corn | 11.322 | 11.951 | 11.590-12.305 | 1.995 | 11.327 |
| Soybeans | 2.933 | 2.920 | 2.775-3.215 | 0.523 | 3.252 |
USDA 2020-21 U.S. corn and soybean crops (production in billions of bushels, yield in bushels per acre, harvested area in millions of acres):
| USDA Jan. | Average of | Range of | USDA Nov. | |
| 2020-21 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2020-21 | |
| estimate | estimates | estimates | estimate | |
| CORN | ||||
| Production | 14.182 | 14.470 | 14.319-14.997 | 14.507 |
| Yield | 172.0 | 175.3 | 173.8-178.2 | 175.8 |
| Harvested area | 82.467 | 82.543 | 82.000-84.160 | 82.527 |
| SOYBEANS | ||||
| Production | 4.135 | 4.158 | 4.084-4.260 | 4.170 |
| Yield | 50.2 | 50.5 | 49.4-51.7 | 50.7 |
| Harvested area | 82.318 | 82.305 | 81.986-82.670 | 82.289 |
U.S. winter wheat seedings for 2021 harvest, in millions of acres:
| USDA Jan. | Average | Range of | USDA 2020 | |
| estimate | of analyst | analyst | wheat | |
| estimates | estimates | plantings | ||
| All winter | 31.991 | 31.528 | 30.395-32.500 | 30.415 |
| Hard red winter | 22.300 | 22.140 | 21.352-22.900 | 21.362 |
| Soft red winter | 6.230 | 5.884 | 5.441-6.260 | 5.564 |
| White winter | 3.480 | 3.514 | 3.400-3.700 | 3.489 |
USDA 2020-21 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks, in billions of bushels:
| USDA Jan. | Average of | Range of | USDA Dec. | |
| 2020-21 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2020-21 | |
| end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
| estimates | estimates | |||
| Wheat | 0.836 | 0.859 | 0.837-0.900 | 0.862 |
| Corn | 1.552 | 1.599 | 1.400-1.782 | 1.702 |
| Soybeans | 0.140 | 0.139 | 0.105-0.166 | 0.175 |
USDA 2020-21 world grain and soybean ending stocks, in millions of tonnes:
| USDA Jan. | Average of | Range of | USDA Dec. | |
| 2020-21 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2020-21 | |
| end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
| estimates | estimates | |||
| Wheat | 313.19 | 315.37 | 310.00-318.36 | 316.50 |
| Corn | 283.83 | 283.53 | 269.00-287.96 | 288.96 |
| Soybeans | 84.31 | 82.66 | 75.00-85.00 | 85.64 |
USDA 2020-21 South American corn and soy production, in millions of tonnes:
| Jan. USDA | Average of | Range of | Dec. USDA | |
| 2020-21 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2020-21 | |
| estimate | estimates | estimates | estimate | |
| ARGENTINA | ||||
| Corn | 47.50 | 47.41 | 45.00-49.00 | 49.00 |
| Soybeans | 48.00 | 48.44 | 46.00-49.50 | 50.00 |
| BRAZIL | ||||
| Corn | 109.00 | 107.74 | 102.00-110.00 | 110.00 |
| Soybeans | 133.00 | 131.42 | 128.00-133.00 | 133.00 |
Wire story had a report that anyone looking for fireworks following the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Tuesday forecasts was not at all disappointed, but for most market participants, the recent trend in some of the numbers might be downright unsettling. The U.S. corn figures were the most surprising in the data landslide published by USDA on Tuesday, particularly for quarterly stocks and 2020 crop yield. Both of those numbers fell considerably below the trade range of estimates, which were historically wide for yield. That locked most-actively traded Chicago corn futures Cv1 up the daily 25 cents per bushel limit at $5.17-1/4 where it finished the session, and traders reported the contract was trading synthetically through options up another 8 cents. That would make for the highest price in the most-active contract since July 2013.
Quarterly U.S. corn stocks seem to be getting harder to predict, and that appears largely driven by revisions to the previous quarter’s stocks, which is part of USDA’s standard procedure. But the revisions are getting larger, setting up even more uncertainty for future reports.
As expected, U.S. corn exports increased to 4.4 million tons in December, the highest volume compared to the same period of the past 5 years. China continued to be the top U.S. corn importer, accounting for 1.6 million tons of total December shipments. Meanwhile exports to other destinations (besides China) increased by 15% from a month ago to 2.8 million tons. Accumulated corn exports during September-December totaled 15.1 million tons, up 6.6 million tons from last year’s same period. Among them, exports to China totaled 5.1 million tons, compared to 0.06 for last year. U.S. corn sales continue to be strong amid increasing demands, tight global supply concerns, and depreciation of U.S. currency. According to USDA’s export sales data, outstanding sales as of 31 December totaled 28.7 million tons, well above last year’s 9.6 million tons and 13.8 million tons for the 5-year average.
Spot millfeed values stayed firm on Tuesday in truck and rail markets around the United States due to strong demand for animal feed, brokers said.
* Feed costs are rising as tightening estimates for U.S. crop supplies are pushing up corn, soy and wheat prices.
* Wheat-based millfeeds compete with corn for space in feed rations.
* The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its 2020/21 estimate for wheat used for feed and residual purposes to 125 million bushels, from 100 million last month. If achieved, that would be the most since 2016/17.
CBOT deliverable grain stocks summary – Reuters News
12-Jan-2021 12:04:00 PM
To view this story on Refinitiv Workspace, click here
DELIVERABLE STOCKS OF GRAIN in regular warehouses on the Chicago Board of Trade as of Friday, Jan 8, 2021.
Location WHEAT CORN SOYBEANS OATS RICE
Chicago 3,661 1,513 4,491 225 0
Toledo 11,555 0 0 0 0
Northwest Ohio 7,850 0 0 0 0
Mississippi River 1,635 0 0 0 0
Ohio River 355 0 0 0 0
St. Louis 1,634 0 1,373 0 0
Minneapolis 0 0 0 13,175 0
Duluth-Superior 0 0 0 1,852 0
Arkansas 0 0 0 0 17,227
Lockport-Seneca 0 1,258 143 0 0
Ottawa-Chillicothe 0 4,459 3,153 0 0
Creve Coeur – Pekin 0 0 831 0 0
Havana-Grafton 0 0 4,551 0 0
TOTALS 26,690 7,230 14,542 15,252 17,227
Week Ago Totals 28,052 6,878 14,700 15,655 16,497
Year Ago Totals 28,547 4,384 16,036 12,669 15,057
KCBT weekly deliverable HRW wheat stocks – Reuters News
12-Jan-2021 12:04:00 PM
January 12 (Reuters) – The Kansas City Board of Trade reported stocks of hard red winter wheat in deliverable position in exchange approved warehouses as of the close of business on January 08 in ‘000 bushels.
—
HUTCHINSON, KANSAS
01/08/21 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 20,661 20,945 23,537
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 900 900 900
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 21,561 21,845 24,437
—
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI/KANSAS
01/08/21 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 10,520 10,813 11,536
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 82 36 38
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 10,602 10,849 11,574
—
SALINA, KANSAS
01/08/21 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 19,681 19,956 26,332
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 0 0 0
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 19,681 19,956 26,332
—
WICHITA, KANSAS
01/08/21 Wk Ago Yr Ago
Deliverable Grades 26,672 27,079 26,249
Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded 652 1,002 2,127
CCC Stocks 0 0 0
TOTAL STOCKS 27,324 28,081 28,376
BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.121 MILLION TNS (NOT 1.175 MILLION TNS) IN JANUARY VERSUS 1.174 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN SAME MONTH OF 2020 – ANEC
BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.052 MILLION TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 1.669 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH OF 2020 – ANEC
Argentina said on Tuesday it lifted a 30,000-tonne-per-day limit recently placed on corn exports, which had caused farmers to go on a sales strike in protest. Growers have withheld crops from market since early Monday, angered by what they said was overzealous intervention in the markets. The government said the curb was intended to ensure ample domestic food supplies and stable prices. As part of a deal negotiated with farm groups and export companies on Tuesday, the agriculture ministry said a commission would be named to monitor domestic corn prices.
The duty on the export of sunflower seeds from Russia in 2021 will be increased. This measure will help keep prices down on the country’s domestic market. The corresponding legislative changes come into force on January 10. Export duties on sunflower and rapeseed seeds from Russia will rise to 30 percent from January 2021.
Exports of wheat from Ukraine in 2020 amounted to 16.06 million tonnes for $3.595 billion, which is respectively 9.8% and 1.8% less than a year earlier, the State Customs Service of Ukraine said on Tuesday. According to its data, corn was exported in amount of 27.95 million tonnes for $4.88 billion, which is lower than the indicators of 2019 by 13.6% and 6.4%, respectively.
Several Ukrainian Black Sea ports have restricted grain cargo operations due to poor weather conditions, the state-run Ukrainian sea port authority said
Ukrainian livestock and poultry producers’ associations have asked the government to limit corn exports in the 2020/21 season to 22 million tonnes to avoid a shortage of animal feed, analyst APK-Inform said. Ukraine’s corn harvest fell to around 29.3 million tonnes in 2020 from 35.9 million a year earlier and producers fear large-scale corn exports could sharply reduce grain stocks and raise corn prices. Ukraine has exported 9.7 million tonnes of corn so far this season, 2.6 million tonnes less than in the same period a season ago. If this volume (of 22 million tonnes) is exceeded, temporary restrictions on corn exports should be imposed to ensure domestic consumption in the volumes necessary to preserve animal husbandry.
Indonesia plans to import 2.6 million tonnes of soybeans this year, the head of the country’s food security agency at the agriculture ministry
Malaysia maintained 8% export tax on crude palm oil in February; the government set a reference price of 3,657.67 ringgit ($904.13) per ton for next month, Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
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