ADMIS AM Comments

By ADM Investor Services Research Team


Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 8 cents in the SRW Wheat, down 6 in HRW, and down 2 for HRS; Corn is down 7 cents; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal down $1.50, and; Soyoil down 15 points.


Chinese Ag futures (September) settled down 23 yuan in Soybeans, down 12 in Corn, down 43 in Soymeal, up 14 in Soyoil, and down 32 in Palm Oil.


The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 3 ringgit at 1,942 (basis September) on production concerns.


The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has below average precip and average to above average temps over the next 10 days


The 11 to 16 Day Outlook now has ridging producing limited rains and above average temps for the majority of the Plains and Midwest.


In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 21 lots; Soyoil 173; Rice 2; Corn 440; HRW Wheat 5; Oats ZERO; Soybeans 400, SRW Wheat ZERO, and; HRS Wheat ZERO.


The player sheet had funds net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 5,000 Corn; bought 1,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 2,000 Soymeal, and; bought 4,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net long 39,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 205,000 Corn; net short 38,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 17,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 34,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 900 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,500; Corn up 23,000; Soybeans up 15,000 contracts; Soymeal up 545 lots, and; Soyoil up 3,700 lots.


There were changes in registrations (Corn down 187; Soybeans down 5)–Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; 1 Oat; Corn 2,350; Soybeans 473; Soyoil 3,547 lots; Soymeal 745; Rice 983; HRW Wheat 5, and; HRS Wheat 1,176 contracts.




In tender activity—Egypt seek optional-origin wheat—Algeria bought 480,000t optional-origin wheat—


Crop progress had 47% of the winter wheat harvested

—64% of the crop was rated good to excellent versus 63% a week ago


Corn was rated  57% good to excellent versus 56% last week

Corn silking was 8% versus 22% average


Soybeans blooming were 10% versus 32% average

The crop now rated 53% good to excellent versus 54% a week ago


Selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in China

–Current corn prices have recovered from lows in MY2016/17 as mounting pressures from supply shocks weigh on historic shifts in demand; MY2019/20 corn production is forecast to fall more than 9 percent from USDA’s June forecast due to lower area and yield; feed demand is projected lower as African Swine Fever-related declines in the hog sector are partly offset by rising poultry production; the MY2019/20 corn feed use forecast is lowered 11 percent from USDA’s official forecast to 170 MMT, the lowest feed use estimate since MY2015/16; the MY2018/19 corn feed use estimate is also lowered to 177 MMT, or about 8 percent.


SovEcon and IKAR, the leading agriculture consultancies in Moscow, downgraded their forecast for Russia’s 2019 wheat crop as they continued to assess the negative impact of June’s hot, dry weather; SovEcon’s forecast for Russia’s 2019 wheat crop was cut to 76.6 million tons from the previously expected 82.2 million tons; its forecast for the 2019 grain crop was reduced to 121.9 million tons from 127.1 million tons


Ukraine, which expects its 2019 grain crop to remain steady at last year’s level of around 70 million tons, has harvested about 11.3 million tons of early grains as of July 8, the agriculture ministry said


Wheat exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will rise 4% in the 2019/20 marketing season, a Reuters poll showed, as June’s heatwave failed to offset favorable weather in the winter, signaling tough competition with the European Union.


USDA Attache Report: Warm and Dry Weather in May Lowers Yield Expectations – Madrid Spain –after a rather dry winter, April rains initially improved yield projections for Northern grain regions. However, April rains came in too late for the Southern grain growing regions.


Tunisia’s cereal harvest will hit 2.4 million tons in 2019, the biggest in decades, the Agriculture Minister said