ADMIS AM Comments

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 2 cents, HRW up 2; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is up 5 cents; Soybeans up 2;  Soymeal up $1.50, and Soyoil up 10 points.

 

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 7 cents; HRW up 6; HRS up 8; Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans up 18;

Soymeal up $5.00, and; Soyoil up 15 points. Crushing margins are down 6 cents at $0.90; Oil share is unchanged at 34%.

 

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 65 yuan in soybeans, up 13 in Corn, up 6 in Soymeal, unchanged in Soyoil, and down 38 in Palm Oil.

 

Malaysian palm oil prices were down 31 ringgit at 2,860 (basis November) at midsession on upcoming higher stock forecast reports.

 

U.S. Weather Forecast

 

The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest is still mixed between the models as far as coverage but, both do have a strong cold front moving through the region Monday through Thursday. Putting the models together, it’s forecasted for some good rains falling in eastern IA, southeastern MN, most of WI, northern IL, and northwest IN. Total rainfall in the rest of the Midwest would be light. Things look to quiet down by the end of next week. Temps will be average to below average this weekend falling to below average next week.

 

The 11 to 16 day outlook for the Midwest has average temps and below average precip.

 

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 16,000 Corn; bought 4,000 Soybeans; net bought 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 3,000 Soyoil.

 

We estimate Managed Money net long 20,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 63,000 Corn; net long 163,000 Soybeans; net long 15,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 72,000 Soyoil.

 

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 5,600 contracts; HRW Wheat up 845; Corn down 2,700; Soybeans up 5,000 contracts; Soymeal down 250 lots, and; Soyoil down 365.

 

Deliveries were 71 Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil; ZERO Rice; 220 Corn; ZERO HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; 8 Soybeans; 11 SRW Wheat, and; 117 HRS Wheat.

 

There were changes in registrations (Corn up 220; Soyoil down 50; Soymeal down 103)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 220; Soybeans 23; Soyoil 2,431 lots; Soymeal 408; Rice ZERO; HRW Wheat 147, and; HRS 1,351.

 

 

TODAY—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—

 

Tender Activity—Ethiopia seeks 80,000t optional-origin wheat—Egypt bought 55,000t Russian wheat—Philippines bought 110,000t optional-origin feed wheat—Egypt bought 47,500t soyoil from local suppliers—

 

 

Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain, soy export sales – Reuters News

 

Trade estimates for 2019-20 Trade estimates for 2020-21
Wheat N/A 350,000-600,000
Corn (50,000)-100,000 1,500,000-2,500,000
Soybeans 0-100,000 1,000,000-1,800,000
Soymeal 25,000-125,000 50,000-250,000
Soyoil 0-10,000 5,000-30,000

 

 

 

All weekly commodity export sales data for week ended August 27 – USDA

 

Week’s Net Change           —- New —-      —–Total—-

in Commitments             —–Sales—      –Commitments–

This Yr-Next Yr-Total Net      This Yr-Next Yr    This Yr-Last Yr

 

Wheat          585.4      0.0     585.4      608.7      0.0    12,463.7   11,395.4

Barley           0.0      0.0       0.0        0.0      0.0        39.2       57.4

Corn            95.8  2,389.1   2,484.9      166.0  2,423.2    44,587.5   49,934.9

Sorghum         12.0    126.5     138.5       72.4    126.5     4,637.1    1,726.7

Soybeans        88.2  1,762.8   1,851.0       97.7  1,785.6    47,511.9   48,782.7

Soymeal        113.7    228.8     342.5      115.8    235.9    12,158.9   12,046.4

Soyoil           4.9      3.0       7.9        5.0      3.0     1,272.9      891.6

Pima Cotton     17.3      0.0      17.3       17.4      0.0       225.2      154.5

Up. Cotton     131.5      0.0     131.5      163.4      0.0     6,983.3    8,247.6

Rice            13.4      0.0      13.4       13.4      0.0       465.8    1,024.8

Beef            11.3      0.4      11.7       12.9      0.4       690.9      717.8

Pork            53.7      0.3      54.0       57.7      0.3     1,549.5    1,085.7

 

 

For the week ended August 27th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 9% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 1% with the USDA forecasting a 1% increase on the year

 

—By class, HRW wheat sales are up 10%, shipments 3% behind with the USDA forecasting an 8% increase

—SRW sales 24% behind, shipments 41% behind with a 2% decline seen

—HRS sales 17% ahead, shipments up 15% with a 1% increase seen

 

For the week ended August 27th, U.S. Corn sales are running 11% behind a year ago, shipments 13% behind with the USDA forecasting a 13% decline.

 

For the week ended August 27th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 3% behind a year ago, shipments down 5% with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline on the year

 

—Soymeal sales up 1% on the year, shipments up 3% with a 2% increase forecast

—Soyoil sales 43% ahead of a year ago, shipments 50% ahead with a 47% increase forecasted

 

 

U.S. July Grain Exports-Sep 3

 

——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-

Jul 20         Jun 20         May 20         Jul 19

Barley                  283,842         94,017        100,497        259,515

Corn /1             171,002,593    198,226,963    224,401,352    113,465,801

Sorghum              14,233,842     22,708,246     31,864,501      6,313,344

Oats                    227,987        132,739        169,718        140,749

Wheat /1             87,002,828     83,891,310     86,265,276     71,400,821

wheat flour /1        505,891        524,188        505,682        518,626

 

 

U.S. July Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Sep 3

 

——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-

Jul 20          Jun 20          May 20        Jul 19

soybeans             81,432,201      66,130,030      72,257,103   135,232,044

soyoil              164,677,622     167,675,455     357,821,585   174,323,535

crude             141,809,337     141,277,110     322,498,425   150,634,473

refined               145,289         101,485       2,234,599       133,704

other/1            22,260,436      25,445,997      32,391,377    22,957,899

hydrogenated          462,561         850,863         697,183       597,459

soymeal                 871,730         908,224         817,037       789,938

soymeal flour/me        266,079         261,451         259,595        93,705

soymeal hulls             8,725          11,666          18,432        24,531

 

 

 

Saskatchewan crop report – Reuters News

Harvest continues to quickly advance thanks to warm and dry weather in most areas of the province; crops are rapidly drying down and the majority of producers are now in the field; twenty-eight per cent of the provincial crop is in the bin, up from 15 per cent last week and well ahead of the five-year (2015-2019) average of 22 per cent for this time of year; an additional 27 per cent of the crop is now swathed or ready to straight-cut

 

 

  • BRAZIL 2020/2021 SOY CROP SEEN AT 131.4 MILLION TNS VERSUS 130.8 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – CELERES CONSULTANCY
  • BRAZIL 2020/2021 FIRST CORN CROP SEEN AT 30 MILLION TNS, UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST

 

 

Rains over recent days brought relief to parched wheat fields in central Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said, although some damage to yields was expected to be irreversible after months of extraordinarily dry weather; Argentine growers have planted ​​6.5 million hectares (16.1 million acres) with wheat, to be harvested in December and January; exchange analysts cut their original sowing estimate of 6.8 million hectares earlier this season due to the dryness

 

—Last season’s harvest was 18.8 million tons of wheat from a planting area of 6.6 million hectares

 

Russian state-controlled grain trader United Grain Company, which has transformed itself into a big exporter within a year, is eyeing trade with Algeria and aiming to boost sales to Bangladesh while maintaining sales to Egypt’s state buyer this season; its strategy signals tougher competition for foreign and local veterans of Russian grain trade as UGC’s co-owner, state-controlled bank VTB has also become a large grain exporter

 

Ukraine’s sunflower oil producers’ association said on Friday it could cut its outlook for the 2020 sunflower seed crop depending on weather conditions, but would maintain its forecast of 15 million tons for now; Ukraine’s economy ministry said this week that drought across the country would cut the sunseed harvest to 14 million tons in 2020 from 15.3 million tons in 2019.

 

The condition of grain maize in France declined slightly in the week to Aug. 31, with 61% of crops rated good or excellent compared with 62% the previous week, farm office FranceAgriMer said; the rating was on a par with the same week last year

 

GRAIN MAIZE

Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Week 35 average in France 4 11 25 56 5
Week 34 2020 4 11 24 57 5
Week 35 2019 6 12 22 55 6

 

 

Euronext wheat ended little changed on Thursday, consolidating below an earlier seven-week high as a rally in U.S. grain futures stalled; benchmark December milling wheat settled unchanged on the day at 188.00 euros ($222.55) a ton; it earlier rose to 189.00 euros, a new high since mid-July, before paring gains in the face of chart resistance and an easing in U.S. futures.

 

An extended period of dry weather has lowered Bulgaria’s wheat crop to 4.6 million tons this year from 6.1 million tons harvested in 2019, the agriculture ministry said; the average wheat yield in the Black Sea country stood at 3.9 tons per hectare, down 24% from a year ago.

 

Beirut port’s capacity to handle wheat and other bulk cereal imports has collapsed to about a fifth or less of its level before a massive blast smashed its grain silos and other facilities, a senior U.N. official said; but the country director for the World Food Programme (WFP) said he did not see Lebanon heading towards a food crisis, although he said his organization was keeping a close eye and was ready to step in if necessary.

 

Asia Grains-Rising wheat prices curb demand, pushing millers to sidelines

  • A rally in global wheat prices this week has reduced Asian demand with buyers across the region largely staying away from the market
  • It has been really quiet as buyers are not chasing higher prices
  • Black Sea wheat was quoted around $250 a ton, including cost and freight (C&F), to Indonesia, up around $12 to $14 a ton from last week
  • The problem is that Russian farmers are not selling; traders who sold at around $230 to $235 a ton for September shipment are having tough time in sourcing supplies

 

Malaysia’s August-end palm oil stocks seen rising 5% as exports plummet

  • August-end stocks seen 5.4% higher at 1.79 mln T – survey
  • Output seen 2% higher at 1.84 mln T
  • Exports seen down 14% at 1.53 mln T
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due Sept. 10

 

Breakdown of August estimates (in tonnes):

Range Median
Production 1,700,000-1,923,000 1,843,903
Exports 1,489,000-1,780,000 1,533,000
Imports 0-60,000 50,000
Closing stocks 1,650,000-1,876,000 1,790,000
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