Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 2 cents, HRW up 2; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is up 5 cents; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal up $1.50, and Soyoil up 10 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 7 cents; HRW up 6; HRS up 8; Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans up 18;
Soymeal up $5.00, and; Soyoil up 15 points. Crushing margins are down 6 cents at $0.90; Oil share is unchanged at 34%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 65 yuan in soybeans, up 13 in Corn, up 6 in Soymeal, unchanged in Soyoil, and down 38 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 31 ringgit at 2,860 (basis November) at midsession on upcoming higher stock forecast reports.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest is still mixed between the models as far as coverage but, both do have a strong cold front moving through the region Monday through Thursday. Putting the models together, it’s forecasted for some good rains falling in eastern IA, southeastern MN, most of WI, northern IL, and northwest IN. Total rainfall in the rest of the Midwest would be light. Things look to quiet down by the end of next week. Temps will be average to below average this weekend falling to below average next week.
The 11 to 16 day outlook for the Midwest has average temps and below average precip.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 16,000 Corn; bought 4,000 Soybeans; net bought 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 20,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 63,000 Corn; net long 163,000 Soybeans; net long 15,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 72,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 5,600 contracts; HRW Wheat up 845; Corn down 2,700; Soybeans up 5,000 contracts; Soymeal down 250 lots, and; Soyoil down 365.
Deliveries were 71 Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil; ZERO Rice; 220 Corn; ZERO HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; 8 Soybeans; 11 SRW Wheat, and; 117 HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations (Corn up 220; Soyoil down 50; Soymeal down 103)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 220; Soybeans 23; Soyoil 2,431 lots; Soymeal 408; Rice ZERO; HRW Wheat 147, and; HRS 1,351.
TODAY—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—
Tender Activity—Ethiopia seeks 80,000t optional-origin wheat—Egypt bought 55,000t Russian wheat—Philippines bought 110,000t optional-origin feed wheat—Egypt bought 47,500t soyoil from local suppliers—
Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain, soy export sales – Reuters News
|Trade estimates for 2019-20||Trade estimates for 2020-21|
All weekly commodity export sales data for week ended August 27 – USDA
Week’s Net Change —- New —- —–Total—-
in Commitments —–Sales— –Commitments–
This Yr-Next Yr-Total Net This Yr-Next Yr This Yr-Last Yr
Wheat 585.4 0.0 585.4 608.7 0.0 12,463.7 11,395.4
Barley 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.2 57.4
Corn 95.8 2,389.1 2,484.9 166.0 2,423.2 44,587.5 49,934.9
Sorghum 12.0 126.5 138.5 72.4 126.5 4,637.1 1,726.7
Soybeans 88.2 1,762.8 1,851.0 97.7 1,785.6 47,511.9 48,782.7
Soymeal 113.7 228.8 342.5 115.8 235.9 12,158.9 12,046.4
Soyoil 4.9 3.0 7.9 5.0 3.0 1,272.9 891.6
Pima Cotton 17.3 0.0 17.3 17.4 0.0 225.2 154.5
Up. Cotton 131.5 0.0 131.5 163.4 0.0 6,983.3 8,247.6
Rice 13.4 0.0 13.4 13.4 0.0 465.8 1,024.8
Beef 11.3 0.4 11.7 12.9 0.4 690.9 717.8
Pork 53.7 0.3 54.0 57.7 0.3 1,549.5 1,085.7
For the week ended August 27th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 9% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 1% with the USDA forecasting a 1% increase on the year
—By class, HRW wheat sales are up 10%, shipments 3% behind with the USDA forecasting an 8% increase
—SRW sales 24% behind, shipments 41% behind with a 2% decline seen
—HRS sales 17% ahead, shipments up 15% with a 1% increase seen
For the week ended August 27th, U.S. Corn sales are running 11% behind a year ago, shipments 13% behind with the USDA forecasting a 13% decline.
For the week ended August 27th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 3% behind a year ago, shipments down 5% with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline on the year
—Soymeal sales up 1% on the year, shipments up 3% with a 2% increase forecast
—Soyoil sales 43% ahead of a year ago, shipments 50% ahead with a 47% increase forecasted
U.S. July Grain Exports-Sep 3
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Jul 20 Jun 20 May 20 Jul 19
Barley 283,842 94,017 100,497 259,515
Corn /1 171,002,593 198,226,963 224,401,352 113,465,801
Sorghum 14,233,842 22,708,246 31,864,501 6,313,344
Oats 227,987 132,739 169,718 140,749
Wheat /1 87,002,828 83,891,310 86,265,276 71,400,821
wheat flour /1 505,891 524,188 505,682 518,626
U.S. July Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Sep 3
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Jul 20 Jun 20 May 20 Jul 19
soybeans 81,432,201 66,130,030 72,257,103 135,232,044
soyoil 164,677,622 167,675,455 357,821,585 174,323,535
crude 141,809,337 141,277,110 322,498,425 150,634,473
refined 145,289 101,485 2,234,599 133,704
other/1 22,260,436 25,445,997 32,391,377 22,957,899
hydrogenated 462,561 850,863 697,183 597,459
soymeal 871,730 908,224 817,037 789,938
soymeal flour/me 266,079 261,451 259,595 93,705
soymeal hulls 8,725 11,666 18,432 24,531
Saskatchewan crop report – Reuters News
Harvest continues to quickly advance thanks to warm and dry weather in most areas of the province; crops are rapidly drying down and the majority of producers are now in the field; twenty-eight per cent of the provincial crop is in the bin, up from 15 per cent last week and well ahead of the five-year (2015-2019) average of 22 per cent for this time of year; an additional 27 per cent of the crop is now swathed or ready to straight-cut
- BRAZIL 2020/2021 SOY CROP SEEN AT 131.4 MILLION TNS VERSUS 130.8 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – CELERES CONSULTANCY
- BRAZIL 2020/2021 FIRST CORN CROP SEEN AT 30 MILLION TNS, UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
Rains over recent days brought relief to parched wheat fields in central Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said, although some damage to yields was expected to be irreversible after months of extraordinarily dry weather; Argentine growers have planted 6.5 million hectares (16.1 million acres) with wheat, to be harvested in December and January; exchange analysts cut their original sowing estimate of 6.8 million hectares earlier this season due to the dryness
—Last season’s harvest was 18.8 million tons of wheat from a planting area of 6.6 million hectares
Russian state-controlled grain trader United Grain Company, which has transformed itself into a big exporter within a year, is eyeing trade with Algeria and aiming to boost sales to Bangladesh while maintaining sales to Egypt’s state buyer this season; its strategy signals tougher competition for foreign and local veterans of Russian grain trade as UGC’s co-owner, state-controlled bank VTB has also become a large grain exporter
Ukraine’s sunflower oil producers’ association said on Friday it could cut its outlook for the 2020 sunflower seed crop depending on weather conditions, but would maintain its forecast of 15 million tons for now; Ukraine’s economy ministry said this week that drought across the country would cut the sunseed harvest to 14 million tons in 2020 from 15.3 million tons in 2019.
The condition of grain maize in France declined slightly in the week to Aug. 31, with 61% of crops rated good or excellent compared with 62% the previous week, farm office FranceAgriMer said; the rating was on a par with the same week last year
|Week 35 average in France||4||11||25||56||5|
|Week 34 2020||4||11||24||57||5|
|Week 35 2019||6||12||22||55||6|
Euronext wheat ended little changed on Thursday, consolidating below an earlier seven-week high as a rally in U.S. grain futures stalled; benchmark December milling wheat settled unchanged on the day at 188.00 euros ($222.55) a ton; it earlier rose to 189.00 euros, a new high since mid-July, before paring gains in the face of chart resistance and an easing in U.S. futures.
An extended period of dry weather has lowered Bulgaria’s wheat crop to 4.6 million tons this year from 6.1 million tons harvested in 2019, the agriculture ministry said; the average wheat yield in the Black Sea country stood at 3.9 tons per hectare, down 24% from a year ago.
Beirut port’s capacity to handle wheat and other bulk cereal imports has collapsed to about a fifth or less of its level before a massive blast smashed its grain silos and other facilities, a senior U.N. official said; but the country director for the World Food Programme (WFP) said he did not see Lebanon heading towards a food crisis, although he said his organization was keeping a close eye and was ready to step in if necessary.
Asia Grains-Rising wheat prices curb demand, pushing millers to sidelines
- A rally in global wheat prices this week has reduced Asian demand with buyers across the region largely staying away from the market
- It has been really quiet as buyers are not chasing higher prices
- Black Sea wheat was quoted around $250 a ton, including cost and freight (C&F), to Indonesia, up around $12 to $14 a ton from last week
- The problem is that Russian farmers are not selling; traders who sold at around $230 to $235 a ton for September shipment are having tough time in sourcing supplies
Malaysia’s August-end palm oil stocks seen rising 5% as exports plummet
- August-end stocks seen 5.4% higher at 1.79 mln T – survey
- Output seen 2% higher at 1.84 mln T
- Exports seen down 14% at 1.53 mln T
- Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due Sept. 10
Breakdown of August estimates (in tonnes):