Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 3 cents, HRW up 4; HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is up 6 cents; Soybeans up 8; Soymeal up $4.50, and Soyoil down 10 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 52 yuan in soybeans, down 2 in Corn, up 33 in Soymeal, up 26 in Soyoil, and unchanged in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 48 ringgit at 2,614 (basis November) a 2 week low on weak August export data, stronger ringgit.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest still has both models indicating fairly healthy rains to fall in all of the region; temps will run above average in most of the region for the week ahead as well as into the weekend and then will fall to below average as we work through the first half of next week and remain there for the rest of the week.
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest continues with average to a bit less than average rainfall and below average temps for the Midwest while no cold air threats are seen.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 15,000 Corn; sold 1,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 2,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 95,000 Corn; net long 100,000 Soybeans; net long 4,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 58,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 15,000 contracts; HRW Wheat down 3,100; Corn down 14,800 Soybeans up 2,500 contracts; Soymeal down 2,900 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,900.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 23; Soyoil 2,632 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice ZERO; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
Tender Activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat—Taiwan seeks 100,645t U.S. wheat—Jordan seeks 120,000t optional-origin wheat—Japan seeks 100,952t optional-origin wheat—Pakistan bought 210,000t optional-origin wheat–
U.S. corn drops to 64% good-to-excellent, soy 69% – Reuters News
All figures in percent:
|Category||Analyst average||Analyst range||USDA last week||USDA this week|
|Winter wheat harvested||97||96-97||93||97|
|Spring wheat harvested||46||35-50||30||49|
|Spring wheat condition*||69||67-70||70||71|
U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 97% (trade estimate was 97%) versus 93% last week, 95% a year ago, 98% average.
U.S. Spring Wheat harvested was 49% (trade estimate was 46%) versus 30% last week, 32% a year ago, 62% average.
Spring Wheat was rated 71% good to excellent (trade estimate was 69%) versus 70% last week, and 69% a year ago; 23% fair (24% a week ago, 25% a year ago), and; 6% poor to very poor (6% last week, 6% a year ago).
U.S. Corn dented was 44% versus 23% a week ago, 24% last year, and 39% average.
U.S. Corn mature was 5% versus NA% a week ago, 2% last year, and 5% average.
Corn was rated 64% good to excellent (trade estimate was 67%) versus 69% last week, and 57% a year ago; 24% fair (21% last week, 30% last year), 12% poor to very poor (10% last week, 13% last year).
U.S. Oats harvested was 85% versus 74% a week ago, 717% last year, and 84% average.
U.S. Soybean setting pods was 92% versus 84% a week ago, 764% last year, and 87% average.
U.S. Soybeans dropping leaves was 4% versus NA% a week ago, 2% last year, and 4% average.
U.S. Soybeans were rated 69% good to excellent (trade estimate was 70%) versus 72% a week ago, and 55% a year ago; 23% fair (21% last week, 32% a year ago), and; 8% poor to very poor (7% last week, 13% a year ago).
Yield expectations for the U.S. Crop Watch corn and soybeans declined after another mostly dry week. Much of the Corn Belt is in for an unseasonably hot and dry next few days, though crops in the eastern areas could benefit this weekend from tropical storm remnants; it is getting late for improvements to corn, but soybeans could still be fortified with additional rainfall over the next couple of weeks. Although it has been a very dry season for many producers, the crops have pulled off an adequate performance because of milder temperatures and a full tank of soil moisture at planting.
EAST CENTRAL IOWA
The Iowa corn is still in tough shape following the Aug. 10 derecho, though yield expectations remain at 2.5 for now. Plants are still leaning just as much as a week ago, and the ears on broken or kinked plants are maturing more quickly than on the healthier ones.
The soybeans withstood the derecho much better than expected, though the dryness has increased yield doubts in the area. Potential for the Crop Watch field remains at 4.5, though the upcoming hot and dry stretch is concerning. A half-inch (13 mm) of rain fell Saturday night, the only rain of the week. The beans have already begun the maturing process, a bit earlier than expected.
There was no rain again last week for the Nebraska fields, and the producer this weekend ran his corn irrigation pivot for the eighth time this season, which is way more than usual. Corn yield remains at 3.5, but soybean yield dropped a quarter-point to 3.25. The beans are not irrigated, and the area has not received a substantial rain since the beginning of July. The area will begin harvest in about three weeks.
Only a half inch of rain fell last week in the North Dakota location, and corn yield potential declined to 2.5 from 3. Soybean yield stays at 2 after the brief rain, but more moisture is needed very soon. The producer notes wide variability in weather conditions around the state. His fields are very dry but plentiful rains have fallen this summer for other areas not too far away.
All Kansas scores are unchanged at 4, though conditions are extremely dry and that could still reduce yield possibilities for soybeans. August rainfall over the Crop Watch fields totals 0.35 inch so far, though the relatively cooler temperatures and excellent early-season precipitation have been lifesavers. The corn is made and now awaits harvest, which could start in the area at the end of this week due to the hot and dry forecast.
The Minnesota grower keeps soybean yield at 5 and corn yield at 4.5. About 1.8 inches (46 mm) of rain fell on Friday night, which basically finished off the soybeans, though more rain would only help. The producer is very enthusiastic about the soybean possibilities, but harvest will have to wait until around the first week of October.
Both Ohio yields were reduced by a half-point to 3.5 for corn and 3 for soybeans after yet another dry week. Some 0.6 inch of rain fell throughout the day on Sunday, and the crops are quickly running out of time to make a recovery. This would be the worst Crop Watch result thus far in Ohio, as corn yield hit 5 in the last two years and soybeans notched a 4.5 and 5.
The Indiana producer reduced soybean yield a quarter-point to 3.25 but left corn yield at 4.75. The fields are in dire need of rain and the upcoming heat is concerning for the later-planted fields, which includes the Crop Watch soybeans. It could make a big difference if the area receives residual moisture from the tropical storms at the end of the week. The corn is expected to be harvested mid-September.
Yield expectations in Illinois remain at 5. The corn and soybeans received only 0.1 inch last week, and although a rain would solidify the record potential for beans, not much would be lost if it stays dry. Harvest should start in about a month.
Traders expect crop condition ratings to fall sharply in the USDA’s weekly report, but more attention is on weather conditions; it’s the amount/location of rainfall which will then direct CBOT prices into the end of the week,” says AgResources; for instance, rain falling farther south and west than previously indicated “would be harmful to US corn/soybean yield potential into early September; the USDA weekly exports report this morning was a positive; the soybean and wheat inspection totals were better than expected and considered supportive.”
Trade estimates for USDA grain export inspections – Reuters News
WEEK ENDED: 08/20/2020 08/13/2020 08/13/2020 08/22/2019
Prelim. Revised Previous
– Wheat 569,593 494,680 461,699 518,574
– Oats 0 0 0 0
– Barley 0 1,996 1,996 0
– Corn 892,031 1,075,251 1,036,985 646,439
– Sorghum 70,357 83,934 83,934 9,509
– Soybeans 1,150,832 924,486 785,075 965,913
MARKETING YEAR-TO-DATE INSPECTIONS
Current Year Last Year
– Wheat 6,228,505 6,039,908
– Oats 800 299
– Barley 2,461 2,938
– Corn 41,266,727 46,814,947
– Sorghum 4,793,955 2,008,964
– Soybeans 42,241,831 44,451,168
—Wheat exports running up 3% ahead of a year ago with the USDA currently forecasting a 1% increase on the year
—Corn 12% behind a year ago with the USDA down 13% for the season
—Soybeans are down 5% on the year with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
Total red meat supplies in freezers were up 1 percent from the previous month but down 15 percent from last year.
Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 3 percent from the previous month but down 3 percent from last year.
Frozen pork supplies were down slightly from the previous month and down 25 percent from last year.
Stocks of pork bellies were down 21 percent from last month and down 20 percent from last year.
U.S. frozen pork inventories fell in July to the lowest level for any month in nine years, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Monday, even after meatpacking plants shut by COVID-19 came back online; the data coincided with China reporting a record volume of pork imports in July after an outbreak of African swine fever reduced its domestic supplies
Senior U.S. and Chinese officials said they were committed to carrying out the phase-one trade accord between the two nations, the two governments said, after the two sides discussed the pact Monday evening U.S. time; the videoconference brought together U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He for a formal review of the trade deal signed in January; the trade representative’s office released a one-paragraph summary of the talks, which it said included discussions of “significant increases” in the purchases of U.S. products by China; talks also reviewed steps Beijing had taken to protect American intellectual property and liberalize China’s market for financial services.
China’s grain inventory has been kept at a high level, with abundant government grain reserves and policy reserves, an official with the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration said on Monday; the ratio of China’s grain inventory to consumption far exceeds the warning level designated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and the stockpile of rice and wheat, two staple grains of the country, can feed the whole population for more than one year
- CHINA TO AUCTION 10,000 TONNES OF FROZEN PORK FROM STATE RESERVES ON AUG 28
China has already sold more than 500,000 tonnes of pork from its reserves this year to help to cool high prices after a severe production shortfall.
Russian wheat export prices steadied last week after a three-week long fall that had been triggered by pressure from the promising new crop; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports was at $202 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $1 from the week before, agriculture consultancy IKAR said in a note; Sovecon, another Moscow consultancy, pegged wheat at $199 per ton, down $1.
Kazakhstan will have 7.5-8.0 million tonnes of grain available for exports in the 2020/21 season; the Agriculture Minister said; the figure was based on an expected harvest of 18 million tons, up from 17.4 million tons last year.
Soft wheat exports from the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started on July 1 totaled 1.99 million tons by Aug. 23, official EU data showed; that was 47% below the volume exported by the same week in the 2019/20 season
Soybean imports into the European Union and Britain in the 2020/21 season that started on July 1 totaled 2.23 million tons by Aug. 23, official EU data showed; that was 7% above the volume imported by the same point in the 2019/20 season
—EU 2020/21 rapeseed imports reached 586,000 tons, down 41% versus 2019/20.
—Soymeal imports came to 2.73 million tons, down 11%
—palm oil imports were 8% higher at 907,000 tons
Grain trade association Coceral on Monday lowered its forecast of grain maize production this year in the European Union and Britain to 64.6 million tons, from 66.8 million tons seen in its June report and 64.8 million in 2019.
Coceral also lowered its estimate of soft wheat production in 2020 to 129.1 million tons, from 129.7 million tons in June and 146.8 million last year.
For barley, Coceral reduced its forecast for the EU + UK output this year to 62.5 million tons from 63.4 million in June, still up from the 62.1 million tons harvested last year, due mainly to lower yields in France.
In oilseeds, Coceral raised its estimate of 2020 rapeseed production in the EU+UK to 17 million tons, from 16.5 million in June, as actual yields Germany, Poland and the Baltic countries were better than previously expected. It was now just above last year’s crop of 16.9 million tons
- EU CROP MONITOR CUTS EU 2020 GRAIN MAIZE YIELD FORECAST TO 8.01 T/HA, FROM 8.21 T/HA IN JULY
- EU CROP MONITOR SLIGHTLY RAISES EU 2020 SOFT WHEAT YIELD ESTIMATE TO 5.55 T/HA, FROM 5.54 T/HA IN JULY
- EU CROP MONITOR RAISES EU 2020 SPRING BARLEY YIELD FORECAST TO 4.39 T/HA, FROM 4.33 T/HA IN JULY
European wheat prices turned around late on Monday as U.S. markets fell sharply after hitting a one-month peak; Benchmark December milling wheat ended 0.6% lower at 182.63 euros a ton.
South Africa’s 2020 maize output estimate is likely to slightly fall compared with the previous forecast after wet weather conditions delayed deliveries; the Crop Estimates Committee, which will give its seventh production forecast on Thursday, is expected to peg the 2019/2020 season maize output at 15.386 million tons, down 1% from the 15.545 million tons it forecast in July.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Aug. 1-25 fell 16.2 percent to 1,219,718 tons from 1,454,925 tons shipped July 1-25, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said
- MALAYSIA’S AUG 1-25 PALM OIL EXPORTS SEEN AT 1,220,063 TONNES VERSUS JULY 1-25 AT 1,424,389 TONNES -AMSPEC MALAYSIA