ADMIS AM Comments

Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 5 cents, HRW up 3; HRS Wheat up 2, Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans up 1;  Soymeal down $1.00, and Soyoil up 20 points.


Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 96 yuan in soybeans, down 7 in Corn, down 21 in Soymeal, up 54 in Soyoil, and up 46 in Palm Oil.


Malaysian palm oil prices were up 29 ringgit at 2,740 (basis November) following Chinese vegoil markets and awaiting domestic export data.


U.S. Weather Forecast


The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest continues with mostly light rainfall for the region as models are mixed with coverage and rainfall amounts; temps run from below to above average over the period.


The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest is mixed between the models with the European now turning towards average rainfall and below average temps; the GFS having average temps and average to below average precip.


The player sheet had funds net sellers of 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 15,000 Corn; sold 2,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net short 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 110,000 Corn; net long 58,000 Soybeans; net short 18,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 62,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 6,700 contracts; HRW Wheat down 385; Corn down 20,100; Soybeans up 5,200 contracts; Soymeal down 20 lots, and; Soyoil up 4,600.


There were changes in registrations (Soybeans down 77) —Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 23; Soyoil 2,606 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice ZERO; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.





Tender Activity—Japan seeks 117,000t optional-origin wheat—Algeria bought 560,000t optional-origin wheat—Egypt seeks 11,000t optional-origin sunoil—


No new high-level trade talks have been scheduled between the United States and China but the two sides remain in touch about implementing a Phase 1 deal, the White House Chief of Staff said; U.S. President Donald Trump earlier told reporters during a visit to Yuma, Arizona, that he had postponed an Aug. 15 review of the trade agreement signed with China in January given his frustration over Beijing’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.



CBOT deliverable grain stocks summary – Reuters News

18-Aug-2020 12:07:00 PM

DELIVERABLE STOCKS OF GRAIN in regular warehouses on the Chicago Board of Trade as of Friday, Aug 14, 2020.


Location                   WHEAT        CORN    SOYBEANS        OATS        RICE

Chicago                    2,916           9       3,612         155           0

Toledo                     8,560           0           0           0           0

Northwest Ohio             9,701           0           0           0           0

Mississippi River          4,528           0           0           0           0

Ohio River                 2,801           0           0           0           0

St. Louis                  2,921           0       1,090           0           0

Minneapolis                    0           0           0       4,142           0

Duluth-Superior                0           0           0          79           0

Arkansas                       0           0           0           0       5,825

Lockport-Seneca                0          37          19           0           0

Ottawa-Chillicothe             0         309         112           0           0

Creve Coeur – Pekin            0           0          26           0           0

Havana-Grafton                 0           0         944           0           0

TOTALS                    31,427         355       5,803       4,376       5,825

Week Ago Totals           31,918         361       4,930       5,101       5,555

Year Ago Totals           46,963       3,173      14,849       4,554      11,598



KCBT weekly deliverable HRW wheat stocks – Reuters News



08/14/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         25,006            25,331            25,383

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded               900               900               900

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               25,906            26,231            26,283


08/14/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         12,243            12,252            10,890

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded                36                36                38

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               12,279            12,288            10,928


08/14/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         24,673            24,758            29,781

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded                 0                 0                 0

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               24,673            24,758            29,781


08/14/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

Deliverable Grades                         31,359            30,839            34,107

Non-deliverable Grades/Ungraded             2,309             2,309             2,321

CCC Stocks                                      0                 0                 0

TOTAL STOCKS                               33,668            33,148            36,428



MGEX deliverable HRS wheat stocks – Reuters News



08/16/20        WEEK AGO        YEAR AGO

Deliverable                    4,256           4,099           2,529

Non-deliverable                    0               0               0

CCC stocks                         0               0               0

Total                          4,256           4,099           2,529


08/16/20        WEEK AGO        YEAR AGO

Deliverable                   19,158          18,112          14,897

Non-deliverable                  463             463             463

CCC stocks                         0               0               0

Total                         19,621          18,575          15,360



Pro Farmer crop tour forecasts bigger Indiana corn yields, soy pod counts than 2019


Indiana corn yields were projected at 179.84 bushels per acre (bpa), the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour said on Tuesday evening, larger than the 2019 crop tour average of 161.46 bpa and more than the three-year crop tour average of 171.67 bpa


Estimated the amount of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Indiana at an average of 1,281.12 pods, up from last year’s average of 923.94 pods and up from the three-year average of 1,134.86 pods



Pro Farmer crop tour forecasts higher Nebraska corn yields, soy pod counts than 2019


Nebraska corn yields were projected at 175.15 bushels per acre (bpa), the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour said on Tuesday; that is higher than the 2019 crop tour average of 172.55 bpa and the three-year crop tour average of 172.38 bpa


Estimated the number of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Indiana at an average 1,297.93 pods, up from last year’s average of 1210.83 pods and a three-year average of 1213.64 pods


U.S. lawmakers and state officials from Iowa said on Tuesday that much of the state’s corn crop will not be harvested following a fierce windstorm last week, as President Donald Trump visited to review the damage; the destruction from the Aug. 10 derecho storm compounded troubles for a U.S. agricultural economy already battered by extreme weather, the U.S.-China trade war and disruptions to labor and food consumption from the COVID-19 pandemic.



Manitoba crop report


Winter cereal harvest is over half done, while spring wheat harvest has begun in much of the province; pre-harvest applications are occurring as necessary in the Southwest and Northwest; rainfall over Manitoba was variable this last week; high amounts in the Eastern and parts of Central regions, while moderate amounts in the Interlake, Northwest and Southwest were beneficial; reported cereal yields to date have been average to slightly below average, given stresses faced by all crops this spring; overall harvest is 5% complete.


Chinese buyers struck deals to buy 195,000 tons of American corn, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday, as China grapples with spiking domestic prices; China’s demand for corn to feed animals has increased as its pig herd has rebounded more quickly than expected from a deadly swine disease first detected in the country two years ago; chicken producers are also pushing ahead with aggressive expansion plans; Chinese corn inventories have dwindled following years of government efforts to whittle down a previously massive stockpile.


China’s early rice output in 2020 rose from last year due to a significant increase in planting acreage, the statistics bureau said, even as flooding and rains in the southern part of the country affected yields; China produced 27.29 million tons of early rice in 2020, up 3.9% from the previous year, as various steps pushed farmers to grow more of the grain and favorable weather during spring planting season facilitated output


Indigenous protesters blocked a key Brazilian grain highway again on Tuesday evening after a six-hour pause to allow a long line of trucks carrying corn to pass, and plan to stay there for another 24 hours before obeying a court order to leave.


Argentina’s government is weighing a cut to export taxes for processed soybean products; the Agriculture Minister said that a tax cut for soy meal and oil was being analyzed.

Ukraine’s grain exports have declined to 5.10 million tons so far in the 2020/21 July-June season, from 6.36 million tons at the same point of the previous season, the economy ministry said; the total volume has shrunk mainly due to lower exports of corn; traders have sold 502,000 tonnes as of Aug. 19 compared to 1.68 million tons by the same date last season; the exports have also included 3.03 million tons of wheat and 1.56 million tons of barley.


With around 42.4 million tons, grain harvest in Germany in 2020 was expected to be almost 5 percent below the last five years’ average, the German Farmers’ Association (DBV) said.


Euronext wheat fell on Tuesday after rising to its highest since July a day earlier in a rally fueled by strength in U.S. corn and technical adjustments in spot Paris prices; December milling wheat unofficially closed down 1.50 euros, or 0.8%, at 181.00 euros ($216.01) a ton, after climbing on Monday to 182.50 euros, its highest since July 31; front-month September futures shed 2 euros to 182.75 euros, easing back from a three-week peak of 185.00 euros touched a day earlier.


Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Aug. 1-15 fell 20.2 percent to 664,392 tons from 832,429 tons shipped during Jul. 1-15, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said