By ADM Investor Services Research Team
Wheat prices overnight are up roughly 2 cents in the SRW Wheat, up 2 in HRW, and down 1 for HRS; Corn is up 6 cents; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal up $2.00, and; Soyoil up 10 points.
U.S. corn futures rose 1% on Monday, extending gains into a fourth consecutive session, as forecasts for hot, dry weather stoked fears about yield losses following recent unfavorable conditions. Wheat edged higher as the strength of corn underpinned gains, while soybeans rose more than 0.5%.
For the week, Winter Wheat prices were down roughly 13 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 18 in the Hard Red Winter, and down 19 for Hard Red Spring; Corn was up 11 cents; Soybeans down 29; Soymeal down $10.00, and; Soyoil down 80 points (crushing margins were down 4 cents at $1.00, oil-share was unchanged at 30%).
Chinese Ag futures (September) settled down 11 yuan in Soybeans, up 2 in Corn, down 19 in Soymeal, up 12 in Soyoil, and down 6 in Palm Oil.
The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 18 ringgit at 1,942 (basis September) on expected higher production.
The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has below average precip and average to above average temps over the next 10 days
The 11 to 16 Day Outlook now has ridging producing limited rains and above average temps for the majority of the Plains and Midwest.
In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 242 lots; Soyoil 283; Rice 8; Corn 693; HRW Wheat ZERO; Oats 1; Soybeans 443, SRW Wheat ZERO, and; HRS Wheat ZERO.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 4,000 Corn; sold 7,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 1,000 Soymeal, and; sold 4,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 14,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 131,000 Corn; net short 60,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 12,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 45,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 110 contracts; HRW Wheat down 360; Corn up 1,700; Soybeans up 2,800 contracts; Soymeal down 2,500 lots, and; Soyoil up 4,500 lots.
There were changes in registrations (Oats down 1; Corn down 19; Soybeans down 264; Rice up 8)–Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; 1 Oat; Corn 2,537; Soybeans 478; Soyoil 3,547 lots; Soymeal 745; Rice 983; HRW Wheat 5, and; HRS Wheat 1,176 contracts.
TODAY—–EXPORT INSPECTIONS—COMMITMENTS—CROP PROGRESS/CONDITIONS—
In tender activity—S. Korea seeks 11,000t optional-origin soybeans—S. Korea bought 180,000t optional-origin soymeal—
For the week ended June 27th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 21% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 33% with the USDA forecasting a 5% decline on the year
For the week ended June 27th, U.S. Corn sales are running 15% behind a year ago, shipments 5% behind with the USDA forecasting a 10% decline on the year
For the week ended June 27th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 15% behind a year ago, shipments 23% behind with the USDA forecasting a 20% decline on the year
—Soymeal sales 2% behind on the year, shipments 2% behind with unchanged forecasted
—Soyoil sales 17% behind a year ago, shipments 19% behind with a 12% decline forecasted
POLL-Trade estimates for USDA July U.S. wheat production – Reuters News
| All Wheat | Winter Wheat | Hard red Wheat | Soft red Wheat | White Wheat | Other Spring | Durum | |
| Average trade estimate | 1.908 | 1.277 | 0.799 | 0.255 | 0.223 | 0.569 | 0.059 |
POLL-Trade estimates for U.S. corn, soy production – Reuters News
| Corn | Soy | |||
| Production | Yield | Production | Yield | |
| Average trade estimate | 13.664 | 165.000 | 3.883 | 48.568 |
POLL-Trade estimates for USDA July U.S. grain end-stocks – Reuters News
| 2018/19 | 2019/20 | ||||||
| Wheat | Corn | Soy | Wheat | Corn | Soy | ||
| Average trade estimate | 1.075 | 2.197 | 1.044 | 1.043 | 1.692 | 0.812 | |
POLL-Trade estimates for USDA July world crop end-stocks – Reuters News
| 2018/19 | 2019/20 | ||||||
| Wheat | Corn | Soy | Wheat | Corn | Soy | ||
| Average trade estimate | 275.75 | 325.93 | 112.77 | 292.43 | 292.48 | 109.17 | |
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Friday proposed refiners increase the volume of biofuels blended into their annual fuel output but did not reallocate the waived amounts under the hardship program, drawing ire from powerful corn and biofuel groups as well as Republican senators.
‘Oil World’
Confusing US Acreage Report Adds New Uncertainty
Diverging price trends on the world veg. oil market. Canola under additional pressure. Weak soya oil & meal values amid rising Argentine export supplies.
—Chinese soybean imports are now picking up sizably from last year in June and July in contrast to a decline in Jan/May.
—Rapeseed & canola are in tight supply in China owing to reduced arrivals from Canada.
—Chinese palm oil imports will exceed expectations and probably rise in Oct/Sept 2018/19
—April/June 2019 Argentina boosted exports of soya meal and of soya oil
—Monsoon rains in India improved in the week to July 3, but cumulative rainfall received since early June is still deficient
North American rail traffic fell 3.3% in the final week of June, as U.S. volumes continued to slow amid declining manufacturing output, data from the Association of American Railroads showed.
Total 2019-crop wheat quantity outstanding into the government’s 9-month price support loan program are 0.177 million bushels, an increase of 0.104 million bushels during the week ended Jly 1, according to USDA
Total 2018-crop corn quantity outstanding into the government’s 9-month price support loan program are 432.409 million bushels, a decrease of 24.749 million bushels
Total 2018-crop soybean quantity outstanding into the government’s 9-month price support loan program 111.077 million bushels, a decrease of 4.263 million bushels
CHINA SELLS 20,426 TONNES OF 2013 SOYBEANS, OR 21.35 % OF TOTAL OFFER, AT AUCTION OF STATE RESERVES – TRADE CENTRE; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE OF 2013 SOYBEANS IS 3,015 YUAN PER TONNE
Selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in China
–lower feed demand and smaller soybean imports in 2018/19 and 2019/20 are results of significant declines in China’s sow and hog inventories due to African Swine Fever; on the other hand, MY 2019/20 soybean production is estimated at 16.8 million tons, up 5.7 percent compared to previous year, primarily due to increased government subsidies
—MY 2019/20 vegetable oil imports are relatively unchanged.
China’s southwestern region of Guangxi has confirmed a new outbreak of African swine fever, the agriculture ministry said.
It could be as long as a decade before China recovers from its outbreak of African swine fever, the deadly
pig disease that’s decimating hog herds in the world’s largest pork consumer. That’s according to Cargill Inc., one of the world’s largest agricultural commodity traders. The virus, which kills most infected pigs within 10 days, has already spread to most Chinese provinces. Official reports of a 24% decline for the nation’s herd are “conservative,” said John Fering, managing director for Cargill’s premix and nutrition business in the Asian nation. Many in the market are already expecting a drop of 45% in production for this year, he said. “This is not a short-term event,” Fering said by phone. “This is going to take several years, if not a decade, to fully achieve structural recovery.’’
Selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Brazil:
—MY 2018/2019 corn production is forecast at a record 101 million metric tons (MMT), 25 percent higher than MY 2017/2018 production and 2.5 MMT larger than the previous record harvest in MY 2016/2017
—Wheat production for MY 2019/20 is forecast relatively stagnant at 5.5 MMT, while total area is forecast at 2 million hectares, about 2 percent less than the previous harvest.
Russia’s July exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are estimated at 4.1 million tons, up from 1.4 million tons in June, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said
—Russia has harvested 19.3 million tons of grain with an average yield of 4.06 tons per hectare, data from the Agriculture Ministry showed; it had harvested 15.8 million tons with an average yield of 3.76 tons on the same date a year earlier
Ukrainian grain exports from sea ports rose to 784,000 tons in the first week of the 2019/20 July-June season from 500,000 tons a week earlier, preliminary data from the APK-Inform consultancy showed
—Corn exports rose to 633,000 tons by July 5 from 414,000 tons in the previous week, while wheat shipments increased to 74,000 tons from 59,000 tons
Summer crop planting down 27% in India on patchy monsoon rains; Indian farmers have planted 23.4 million hectares with summer crops, down 27% from this time a year ago, according to the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare, buffeted by patchy monsoon rains that slowed down sowing in the country
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