Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 2 cents, HRW down 1; HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is down 6 cents; Soybeans down 7, Soymeal down $3.00, and Soyoil down 20 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 40 cents; HRW up 18; HRS up 15; Corn was down 9 cents; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $4.00, and; Soyoil up 10 points. Crushing margins were down 1 cent at 87 cents; Oil share unchanged at 32%.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 17 yuan, up 10 in Corn, up 15 in Soymeal, down 8 in Soyoil, and down 78 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 32 ringgit at 2,444 (basis September) on spec buying interest.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The 6 to 10 day Midwest forecast has difference in the models with the GFS being wetter than the European model; the GFS has light to moderate rainfall for most sections of the Midwest while the European model favors northern sections of the Midwest with precip; temps look to run above average
The 11 to 16 day Midwest forecast sees close to average rainfall and slightly above average temps.
The Southern Plains sees mainly dry weather in the 6 to 10 day outlook with temps running above average.
The Delta looks to see mainly dry weather in the 6 to 10 day outlook.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 35,000 Corn; sold 9,000 Soybeans; net sold 4,000 lots of soymeal, and; sold 1,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 151,000 Corn; net long 90,000 Soybeans; net short 23,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 12,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 440 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,500; Corn up 8,000; Soybeans down 8,700 contracts; Soymeal down 3,800 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,200.
Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil; ZERO Rice; ZERO Corn; 4 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; ZERO Soybeans; 13 SRW Wheat, and; 8 HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations (SRW Wheat down 54; HRW Wheat down 22)—Registrations total 46 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,141 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 10; HRW Wheat 57, and; HRS 1,379.
TODAY—EXPORT INSPECTIONS—CROP PROGRESS/CONDITIONS—
Tender Activity—Iran seeks 200,000t optional-origin corn; 200,000t soymeal—China booked its second-largest single-day U.S. corn purchase on record, according to USDA data released on Friday, as the country works to fulfill its Phase 1 trade deal obligation to dramatically increase U.S. farm product imports; the USDA said China bought 765,000 tons of corn for shipment in the current marketing year which ends Aug 31 and 600,000 tons for shipment in the following year; the 1.365 million tons of corn booked by China was its largest single-day purchase in 25-1/2 years, behind only a 1.45-million-tonne purchase in December 1994
—China also booked deals for 130,000 tons of U.S. hard red winter wheat and 190,000 tons of U.S. hard red spring wheat
USDA July crop supply/demand report summary – Reuters News
10-Jul-2020 11:32:26 AM
| USDA July | Average of | Range of | USDA | |
| 2020-21 | analysts’ | analysts’ | June | |
| estimate | estimates | estimates | estimates | |
| All wheat | 1.824 | 1.848 | 1.816-1.885 | 1.877 |
| All winter | 1.218 | 1.247 | 1.223-1.285 | 1.266 |
| Hard red winter | 0.710 | 0.732 | 0.710-0.760 | 0.743 |
| Soft red winter | 0.280 | 0.290 | 0.269-0.298 | 0.297 |
| White winter | 0.227 | 0.225 | 0.224-0.227 | 0.225 |
| Other spring | 0.550 | 0.546 | 0.529-0.562 | NA |
| Durum | 0.056 | 0.058 | 0.052-0.065 | NA |
USDA 2020-21 U.S. corn and soybean production
| USDA July | Average of | Range of | USDA June | |
| 2020-21 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2020-21 | |
| estimate | estimates | estimates | estimate | |
| Corn | ||||
| production | 15.000 | 15.036 | 14.932-15.296 | 15.995 |
| Corn yield | 178.5 | 178.5 | 176.4-180.5 | 178.5 |
| Soy production | 4.135 | 4.152 | 4.123-4.382 | 4.125 |
| Soy yield | 49.8 | 50.0 | 48.8-52.8 | 49.8 |
USDA 2019-20 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks
| USDA July | Average of | Range of | USDA June | |
| 2019-20 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2019-20 | |
| end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
| estimates | estimates | |||
| Corn | 2.248 | 2.277 | 2.166-2.403 | 2.103 |
| Soybeans | 0.620 | 0.584 | 0.560-0.635 | 0.585 |
USDA 2020-21 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks
| USDA July | Average of | Range of | USDA June | |
| 2020-21 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2020-21 | |
| end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
| estimates | estimates | |||
| Wheat | 0.942 | 0.948 | 0.825-1.006 | 0.925 |
| Corn | 2.648 | 2.683 | 2.400-3.010 | 3.323 |
| Soybeans | 0.425 | 0.416 | 0.355-0.572 | 0.395 |
USDA 2019-20 world grain and soybean ending stocks
| USDA July | Average of | Range of | USDA June | |
| 2019-20 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2019-20 | |
| end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
| estimates | estimates | |||
| Wheat | 297.12 | 297.30 | 296.00-298.50 | 295.84 |
| Corn | 311.95 | 315.07 | 311.77-320.50 | 312.91 |
| Soybeans | 99.67 | 99.35 | 98.00-101.00 | 99.19 |
USDA 2020-21 world grain and soybean ending stocks
| USDA July | Average of | Range of | USDA June | |
| 2020-21 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2020-21 | |
| end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
| estimates | estimates | |||
| Wheat | 314.84 | 315.89 | 311.83-318.50 | 316.09 |
| Corn | 315.04 | 324.84 | 310.00-339.00 | 337.87 |
| Soybeans | 95.08 | 96.71 | 94.70-99.40 | 96.34 |
Hot and dry weather across the U.S. Corn Belt had speculators covering more short positions in Chicago-traded grains and oilseeds last week, but Friday’s trade ended on a more bearish note as weather forecasts suggested relief is on the way.
China said on Friday that it predicted higher corn and soybean imports for 2019/20, as the country was expected to step up purchases from the United States to fulfill their Phase 1 trade deal.
| 2018/2019 | 2019/2020 July Forecast(2019.7) | 2020/2021 June Forecast(2020.6) | 2020/2021 July Forecast(2020.7) | Percentage change | |
| Corn – crop year Oct-Sept | |||||
| Planted acreage (mln hectares) | 42.13 | 41.28 | 41.69 | 41.69 | 0.00% |
| Output (mln tonnes) | 257.17 | 260.77 | 266.51 | 266.51 | 0.00% |
| Imports (mln tonnes) | 4.48 | 6.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 0.00% |
| Consumption (mln tonnes) | 274.78 | 278.30 | 285.47 | 285.47 | 0.00% |
| Exports (mln tonnes) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00% |
| Balance (mln tonnes) | -13.15 | -11.55 | -13.98 | -13.98 | 0.00% |
| Soybean – crop year Oct-Sept | |||||
| Planted acreage (mln hectares) | 8.40 | 9.35 | 9.60 | 9.60 | 0.00% |
| Output (mln tonnes) | 16.00 | 18.10 | 18.82 | 18.82 | 0.00% |
| Imports (mln tonnes) | 82.61 | 94.00 | 93.60 | 93.60 | 0.00% |
| Consumption (mln tonnes) | 102.93 | 107.10 | 111.12 | 111.12 | 0.00% |
| Exports (mln tonnes) | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.00% |
| Balance (mln tonnes) | -4.44 | 4.85 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 0.00% |
| Edible oils – crop year Oct-Sept | |||||
| Output (mln tonnes) | 25.49 | 27.39 | 27.70 | 27.70 | 0.00% |
| Soybean oil | 14.31 | 16.28 | 16.34 | 16.34 | 0.00% |
| Rapeseed | 5.69 | 5.54 | 5.66 | 5.66 | 0.00% |
| Peanut oil | 3.18 | 3.22 | 3.31 | 3.31 | 0.00% |
| Imports (mln tonnes) | 8.55 | 8.35 | 7.70 | 7.70 | 0.00% |
| Palm oil | 4.95 | 4.50 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00% |
| Rapeseed | 1.51 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 0.00% |
| Soybean oil | 0.78 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.00% |
| Consumption (mln tonnes) | 33.38 | 32.56 | 33.82 | 33.82 | 0.00% |
| Exports (mln tonnes) | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.00% |
| Balance (mln tonnes) | 0.40 | 2.93 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 0.00% |
China’s canola oil futures prices rose to its highest in nearly three-and-a-half years on Monday, after previously charting gains for 10 out of 11 weeks, as lower imports due to tensions with Canada spurred supply concerns and higher trading interest; canola oil prices on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange surged to 7,957 yuan ($1,137.53) per tonne on Monday, its strongest since February 2017. Open interest for the contract also hit an over one-year top.
The wholesale prices of China’s agricultural products registered a slight uptick Monday, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs; the latest China agricultural product wholesale price index came in at 116.15, up 0.12 points from Friday; by 2 p.m. Monday, the average wholesale price of pork, a staple meat in China, rose 1.7 percent to 48.84 yuan (about 6.98 U.S. dollars) per kg, while eggs gained 1.9 percent to 6.44 yuan per kg.
Asian pork production will fall sharply in the region this year, led by a further decline in output in China, Fitch Solutions says; African swine fever is still very much present in China despite measures taken by authorities to contain it and support a recovery in production; pork production declined 20.4% in 2019 and is expected to fall a further 18.1% in 2020 to 35.2 million metric tons, bringing production “to its lowest level since 1996; it forecasts output to remain below pre-African swine fever levels until 2024 due to the difficulty of fighting the disease and rebuilding herds.
BRAZIL SECOND CORN HARVEST REACHES 34.9% OF PLANTED AREA VERSUS 49% THIS TIME LAST YEAR AND 30.9% OF HISTORICAL AVERAGE – ARC MERCOSUL
Russia’s 2020 grain harvest is seen at about 122.5 million tons, the agriculture ministry said on Friday, including 75 million tons of wheat; the ministry said it sees Russia’s grain exports for the 2019-2020 season at 43 million tons; it added that it wanted to buy 2.5-3.5 million tons of grain for its new state stockpile, but that no purchases will be made before the new 2021/22 season which will start on July 1 2021
Russia will start building up its new state grain stockpile to about 2.5-3.5 million tons in the 2021/22 season which will start on July 1 2021, the agriculture ministry said; Russia depleted its current state stockpile through sales to the domestic market earlier this year amid the COVID-19 outbreak; the new fund will be more focused on serving potential demand from domestic flour millers and will be purchasing grain gradually to avoid pressure on the domestic market
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry has no serious concerns about this year’s grain harvest, the Agriculture Minister told reporters as part of Russian Field Day in the Bryansk Region; we have no serious concerns about the gross harvest, as a high yield is expected in a number of regions
Russia’s July exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are expected at 2.75 million tons, up from 550,000 tons estimated in June, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said
Ukraine has harvested 6.34 million tons of grain from 1.9 million hectares as of July 9, economy ministry said; the volume included 2.92 million tons of wheat and 3.03 million tons of barley; the ministry has said poor weather is likely to reduce Ukrainian 2020 grain harvest to at least 68 million tons from a record 75.1 million tons in 2019
Ukraine, the world’s major exporter of sunflower oil, increased sunoil shipments by 10% to 5.7 million tons in the first 11 months of the 2019/20 season, analyst APK-Inform said; Ukraine exported 588,200 tons of the commodity in June; APK-Inform has forecast Ukraine will produce 6.7 million tons of sunoil in the 2019/20 season and may increase output to nearly 6.9 million tons in 2020/21 due to a higher sunflower seed harvest; Ukraine is likely to export 6.3 million tons of sunoil in 2019/20; Ukraine exported 6.063 million tonnes of sunflower oil in the previous crop season
After vigorous monsoon rains, crop planting gathers pace in India; Indian farmers have planted 12 million hectares with summer-sown rice, preliminary farm ministry data for this year showed, up 25% from last year as robust monsoon rains encouraged the expansion of acreage; buoyed by the plentiful rains, rice farmers are likely to harvest a record crop and step up overseas sales from the world’s biggest exporter of the grain
Back