Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 2 cents, HRW down 3; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 2, Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil unchanged.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 29 cents; HRW up 19; HRS up 15; Corn is up 5 cents; Soybeans up 7; Soymeal up $2.00, and; Soyoil up 15 points. Crushing margins are unchanged at 88 cents; Oil share down 1% at 31%.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 17 yuan, up 10 in Corn, up 15 in Soymeal, down 8 in Soyoil, and down 78 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 18 ringgit at 2,385 (basis September) at midsession on weaker July export expectations.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The southwestern Corn Belt, such as Missouri and eastern Kansas, will still likely trend drier in the second week of the outlook; the position of the ridge of high pressure in the second week is likely to favor complexes of thunderstorms to move mostly through northern and eastern production areas of the Corn Belt.
An unusually cool air mass will drop down through the Northern Plains and into Nebraska and the northwestern Corn Belt Tuesday into Thursday; this will merge with a weather disturbance containing some monsoonal moisture leading to a potential significant rain event from Nebraska through Wisconsin within this timeframe.
The 11 to 16 day forecast has now turned mixed with the models. The GFS sees close to average rainfall and temps for the Midwest through the period. The European model sees ridging producing limited rainfall and above average temps.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 15,000 Corn; bought 4,000 Soybeans; net bought 4,000 lots of soymeal, and; sold 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 158,000 Corn; net long 80,000 Soybeans; net short 43,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 2,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 7,300 contracts; HRW Wheat down 550; Corn up 535; Soybeans up 930 contracts; Soymeal down 1,400 lots, and; Soyoil down 1,300.
Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal; 14 Soyoil; 10 Rice; ZERO Corn; 5 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; ZERO Soybeans; 5 SRW Wheat, and; ZERO HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations (SRW Wheat down 62; Rice down 1; HRW Wheat down 16)—Registrations total 100 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,141 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 10; HRW Wheat 79, and; HRS 1,379.
TODAY—USDA MONTHLY S/D—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—
Tender Activity—Philippines pass on 110,000t feed wheat—
TABLE-USDA June crop supply/demand report estimates (scheduled for release at 12 p.m. EDT)
USDA 2020-21 U.S. wheat production
| USDA July | Average of | Range of | USDA | |
| 2020-21 | analysts’ | analysts’ | June | |
| estimate | estimates | estimates | estimates | |
| All wheat | _______ | 1.848 | 1.816-1.885 | 1.877 |
| All winter | _______ | 1.247 | 1.223-1.285 | 1.266 |
| Hard red winter | _______ | 0.732 | 0.710-0.760 | 0.743 |
| Soft red winter | _______ | 0.290 | 0.269-0.298 | 0.297 |
| White winter | _______ | 0.225 | 0.224-0.227 | 0.225 |
| Other spring | _______ | 0.546 | 0.529-0.562 | NA |
| Durum | _______ | 0.058 | 0.052-0.065 | NA |
USDA 2020-21 U.S. corn and soybean production
| USDA July | Average of | Range of | USDA June | |
| 2020-21 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2020-21 | |
| estimate | estimates | estimates | estimate | |
| Corn | ||||
| production | ______ | 15.036 | 14.932-15.296 | 15.995 |
| Corn yield | ______ | 178.5 | 176.4-180.5 | 178.5 |
| Soy production | ______ | 4.152 | 4.123-4.382 | 4.125 |
| Soy yield | ______ | 50.0 | 48.8-52.8 | 49.8 |
USDA 2019-20 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks
| USDA July | Average of | Range of | USDA June | |
| 2019-20 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2019-20 | |
| end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
| estimates | estimates | |||
| Corn | _______ | 2.277 | 2.166-2.403 | 2.103 |
| Soybeans | _______ | 0.584 | 0.560-0.635 | 0.585 |
USDA 2020-21 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks
| USDA July | Average of | Range of | USDA June | |
| 2020-21 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2020-21 | |
| end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
| estimates | estimates | |||
| Wheat | _______ | 0.948 | 0.825-1.006 | 0.925 |
| Corn | _______ | 2.683 | 2.400-3.010 | 3.323 |
| Soybeans | _______ | 0.416 | 0.355-0.572 | 0.395 |
USDA 2019-20 world grain and soybean ending stocks
| USDA July | Average of | Range of | USDA June | |
| 2019-20 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2019-20 | |
| end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
| estimates | estimates | |||
| Wheat | ________ | 297.30 | 296.00-298.50 | 295.84 |
| Corn | ________ | 315.07 | 311.77-320.50 | 312.91 |
| Soybeans | ________ | 99.35 | 98.00-101.00 | 99.19 |
USDA 2020-21 world grain and soybean ending stocks
| USDA July | Average of | Range of | USDA June | |
| 2020-21 | analysts’ | analysts’ | 2020-21 | |
| end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
| estimates | estimates | |||
| Wheat | ________ | 315.89 | 311.83-318.50 | 316.09 |
| Corn | ________ | 324.84 | 310.00-339.00 | 337.87 |
| Soybeans | ________ | 96.71 | 94.70-99.40 | 96.34 |
USDA world production
| July USDA | June USDA | July USDA | June USDA | |
| 2019-20 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2020-21 | |
| estimate | estimate | estimate | estimate | |
| Argentina wheat | _____ | 19.50 | _____ | 21.00 |
| Australia wheat | _____ | 15.20 | _____ | 26.00 |
| Canada wheat | _____ | 32.35 | _____ | 34.00 |
| Russia wheat | _____ | 73.61 | _____ | 77.00 |
| Argentina corn | _____ | 50.00 | _____ | 50.00 |
| Brazil corn | _____ | 101.00 | _____ | 107.00 |
| South Africa corn | _____ | 16.25 | ____ | 14.00 |
| China corn | ______ | 260.77 | ______ | 260.00 |
| Ukraine corn | _____ | 35.89 | _____ | 39.00 |
| Argentina soy | _____ | 50.00 | _____ | 53.50 |
| Brazil soy | ______ | 124.00 | ______ | 131.00 |
There is about 50-55% chance of La Niña development during the northern hemisphere fall in 2020, with a 50% chance the pattern will continue through winter 2020-21, a U.S. government weather forecaster said
Wire story reported traders may want to be on alert earlier than usual over the forecast for a possible La Nina later in the year, because although drought does not accompany every episode, some crop-growing regions that are more likely to be negatively affected by La Nina are already dry; persistent dry conditions associated with La Nina are most likely to occur in Argentina and southern Brazil, along with the southern U.S. Plains, where the country’s hard red winter (HRW) wheat variety is grown.
| Trade estimates for 2019-20 | Trade estimates for 2020-21 | |
| Wheat | N/A | 200,000-550,000 |
| Corn | 300,000-600,000 | 150,000-500,000 |
| Soybeans | 300,000-800,000 | 400,000-1,000,000 |
| Soymeal | 75,000-250,000 | 0-50,000 |
| Soyoil | 5,000-25,000 | 0-5,000 |
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jul 9
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 326.1 -75.0 7560.2 7487.1 5304.7 0.0
hrw 61.9 0.0 2833.4 3024.6 1825.6 0.0
srw 149.6 -75.0 728.7 1025.7 610.8 0.0
hrs 86.0 0.0 2171.3 1864.6 1583.8 0.0
white 28.4 0.0 1516.6 1359.6 1105.5 0.0
durum 0.2 0.0 310.2 212.5 179.0 0.0
corn 599.2 409.3 42912.7 49421.0 7945.8 4302.3
soybeans 952.2 382.1 45994.8 48532.3 8229.8 7318.9
soymeal 124.4 73.5 11187.7 11318.3 1905.6 442.4
soyoil 28.9 0.0 1218.2 813.4 239.7 11.0
For the week ended July 2nd, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 1% ahead of a year ago, shipments down 13% with the USDA forecasting a 2% decline on the year
—By class, HRW wheat sales are down 6%, shipments 26% behind
—SRW sales 29% behind, shipments 49% behind
—HRS sales 17% ahead, shipments up 6%
For the week ended July 2nd, U.S. Corn sales are running 13% behind a year ago, shipments 21% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline.
For the week ended July 2nd,U.S. Soybean sales are running 5% behind a year ago, shipments down 2% with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline on the year
—Soymeal sales 1% behind on the year, shipments up 3% with a 1% decrease forecasted
—Soyoil sales 50% ahead of a year ago, shipments 47% ahead with a 39% increase forecasted
Most of corn and soybean’s price weakness year-to-date is likely over, as critical demand weakness is dissipating for now, Fitch Solutions says; it adds that ethanol production and prices have revived as oil prices rallied from 1Q lows, while livestock processing has rebounded on slowly reopening U.S. meat factories, which improves demand; it expects corn prices to outperform the rest of the grains complex over the coming months.
Saskatchewan crop report
Most of the province received rainfall this week, with the Rama area receiving the highest amount at 98 mm; crop development is progressing in the province as a result of warm weather and recent rainfall; fifty-nine per cent of the fall cereals and 24 per cent of the spring cereals are in the heading stage; thirty-seven per cent of the canola and mustard and 48 per cent of the pulse crops are in the flowering stage
China said on Friday that it predicted higher corn and soybean imports for 2019/20, as the country was expected to step up purchases from the United States to fulfill the Phase 1 trade deal.
—Corn imports for the crop year that ends in September are now seen at 6 million tons, up 2 million tons from last month’s forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said
—The ministry also raised its forecast for China’s 2019/20 soybean imports to 94 million tons, up 3 million tons from its estimate in the previous month
China’s dwindling pace of meat imports, thanks to its tough measures against coronavirus contamination, will provide further support for prices already buoyed by a severe shortage of pork, analysts said; purchases of pork and other meats have soared this year after domestic production shrank 30% following an outbreak of African swine fever that devastated China’s hog herd, but the recent anti-contamination measures threaten to reduce imports; Beijing has suspended imports from more than 20 overseas plants processing pork, beef and poultry since mid-June, after workers were infected with the virus
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