By ADM Investor Services Research Team
Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 2 cents in the SRW Wheat, down 3 in HRW, and down 2 for HRS; Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal down $1.50, and; Soyoil down 20 points.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 30 yuan in Soybeans, up 3 in Corn, up 13 in Soymeal, down 36 in Soyoil, and down 50 in Palm Oil.
The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 22 ringgit at 2,881 (basis February) setting back technically from recent price gains.
Grain futures could still be in a trading range. Bulls feel US corn crop could still drop from latest USDA estimate. Market is still not pricing in any 2020 weather problems. US farmers still not aggressive sellers of corn or soybean supplies. Slow export demand for US corn, soybean and wheat limits new buying. Estimates of higher World 2020 corn, soybean and wheat supplies also limits the upside in prices. Trade waits any US and China trade news. Deadline for new US tariffs on China goods is Dec 15. China has increased buying of US soybeans as a gesture of good faith. Commodity trade will be watching US Fed comments today for market direction. Next key USDA report will be in January.
The South American weather forecast for Brazil in the 6 to 10 day outlook continues with moderate rainfall in most areas with lighter amounts in the northeast.
The Argentine weather forecast also continues in the 6 to 10 day period for the southern growing regions seeing mostly dry conditions with light to moderate rainfall in the north.
In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 506 lots; Soyoil 295; Corn 79; HRW Wheat 1; Oats ZERO; SRW Wheat ZERO, and; HRS Wheat ZERO.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 3,000 Corn; were net buyers of 4,000 Soybeans; sold 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 4,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 18,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 105,000 Corn; net short 64,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 46,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 83,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 1,800 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,300; Corn up 6,400; Soybeans down 5,300 contracts; Soymeal up 2,200 lots, and; Soyoil down 10,700.
There were changes in registrations (Soymeal up 500)—Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 216; Soybeans 1,469; Soyoil 2,613 lots; Soymeal 1,310; Rice 477; HRW Wheat 11, and; HRS Wheat 789 contracts.
TODAY——WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—
In tender activity—Taiwan seeks 104,600t U.S. wheat—Egypt was a buyer of 355,000t Russian, Ukraine, Romanian, French wheat—Philippines bought 100,000t optional-origin feed wheat—
DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report Tuesday and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2019-20 Stockpiles (million bushels)
Tuesday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range November
Corn 1,910.0 1,859 1,479-1,960 1,910
Soybeans 475.0 472 345- 522 475
Wheat 974.0 1,000 913-1,050 1,014
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Tuesday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range November
Corn 319.2 319.6 315.0-320.1 320.1
Soybeans 109.8 110.0 109.0-112.1 109.7
Wheat 277.9 277.6 275.0-278.0 277.9
2019-20
Tuesday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range November
Corn 300.6 295.6 292.0-298.2 296.0
Soybeans 96.4 96.2 94.0-101.9 95.4
Wheat 289.5 286.3 283.9-288.5 288.3
U.S. President Donald Trump will be the one to make the final decision on tariffs and the U.S.-China trade deal, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said; either way we’re going to be in a great place; the president loves them (the tariffs),” Navarro said; if we get a great deal, we’ll be in a good place as well; but it will be the president’s decision
An agreement on passing the USMCA trade deal through Congress will be a boon for US agriculture, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue says. “The agreement improves virtually every component of the old Nafta, and the agriculture industry stands to gain significantly,” says Perdue, who deemed the deal “a big win” for US farmers and ranchers.
Weekly U.S. deliverable stocks of SRW stand at 34.3 mil bu versus 34.9 mil last week and 64.4 mil a year ago
—HRW wheat 94.1 mil bu versus 96.2 mil last week and 113.9 mil a year ago
—HRS wheat 19.4 mil bu versus 20.4 mil last week and 15.4 mil a year ago
Weekly U.S. deliverable stocks of corn total 4.2 mil bu versus 4.1 mil last week and 8.2 mil a year ago.
Weekly U.S. deliverable stocks of soybeans stood at 18.9 mil bu versus 18.8 last week and 16.5 mil a year ago.
Farmers participating in U.S. crop subsidy programs reported “prevented plantings” for Dec. 2 of 11.432 million acres of corn, 4.461 million acres of soybeans and 2.220 million acres of wheat, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said
—Producers enrolled in subsidy programs for Dec. 2 reported planted acreage, including failed acres, at 87.117 million acres of corn, 75.048 million acres of soybeans and 46.807 million acres of wheat.
- FARMERS ENROLLED 87.117 MLN ACRES CORN (VS 87.065 MLN ACRES REPORTED AS OF NOV. 1) IN U.S. CROP SUBSIDY PROGRAMS INCLUDING FAILED ACRES FOR 2019 AS OF DEC. 2
- FARMERS ENROLLED 75.048 MLN ACRES SOYBEANS (VS 75.011 MLN ACRES REPORTED AS OF NOV. 1) IN U.S. CROP SUBSIDY PROGRAMS INCLUDING FAILED ACRES FOR 2019 AS OF DEC. 2 – USDA
- FARMERS ENROLLED 46.807 MLN ACRES WHEAT (VS 46.767 MLN ACRES REPORTED AS OF NOV. 1) IN U.S. CROP SUBSIDY PROGRAMS INCLUDING FAILED ACRES FOR 2019 AS OF DEC. 2 – USDA
- U.S. FARMERS REPORT PREVENTED PLANTINGS OF 11.432 MLN ACRES CORN (VS 11.430 MLN ACRES REPORTED AS OF NOV. 1) FOR 2019 AS OF DEC. 2 – USDA
- U.S. FARMERS REPORT PREVENTED PLANTINGS OF 4.461 MLN ACRES SOYBEANS (VS 4.459 MLN ACRES REPORTED AS OF NOV. 1) FOR 2019 AS OF DEC. 2 – USDA
- U.S. FARMERS REPORT PREVENTED PLANTINGS OF 2.220 MLN ACRES WHEAT (VS 2.218 MLN ACRES REPORTED AS OF NOV. 1) FOR 2019 AS OF DEC. 2 – USDA
Brazilian farmers will grow a record 121.1 million metric tons of soybeans this season, for which planting is close to complete, a slight increase from the 120.9 million forecast in November. The country grew 115 million tons of soybeans in the 2018-2019 season
—Brazil’s corn production is forecast to decline from last year, even after Conab raised its forecast slightly from November; the country’s farmers will grow 98.41 million metric tons of corn in the 2019-2020 season, compared with 100.05 million tons a year earlier
—Brazil’s center-south region produced 337,000 tonnes of sugar in the second half of November, 36% less than in the same period a year earlier, as cane crushing also fell and mills favored ethanol production over the sweetener; according to a report by cane industry group Unica on Tuesday, mills crushed 10.8 million tons of cane in the center-south late in November, 25% less than in the same period a year earlier; ethanol production increased by 3% to 770 million liters.
Brazilian beef exports hit a record in 2019 driven by China’s approval of more local suppliers amid an outbreak of a deadly pig disease in Asia, exporter group Abiec said
—Abiec said Brazil’s total beef exports totaled an estimated 1.828 million tons this year, up from 1.643 million tons in 2018, when exports also hit a record
Wire story reports rainfall has been lacking over Argentina’s grain belt, and although the needed relief may not arrive in the near term, the soybean and corn crops are less likely to experience large losses if temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean are cooperative.
Wire story reports the African Swine Fever crisis in China and a shift towards plant-based protein in diets could reshape EU agricultural markets over the next ten years, leading to fluctuating pork prices and higher cultivation of pulses and soybeans.
Farm office FranceAgriMer increased its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union this season to 12.2 million tons from 12.0 million projected last month; the revised 2019/20 wheat export forecast was up 26% compared with last season’s level
—The revised export forecast contributed to a cut in projected soft wheat stocks at the end of the season, now seen at 2.4 million tons compared with 2.5 million expected previously
—FranceAgriMer also cut its forecast for French maize stocks at the end of the season, now seen at 2.1 million tons, down from 2.2 million seen last month
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