ADMIS AM Comments 120619

By ADM Investor Services Research Team


Wheat prices overnight are up roughly 1 cent in the SRW Wheat, up 3 in HRW, and up 1 for HRS; Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 6; Soymeal up $1.50, and; Soyoil up 15 points.


For the week, Winter Wheat prices are down roughly 17 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 13 in the Hard Red Winter, and up 1 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is down 4 cents; Soybeans up 11 cents; Soymeal up $7.00, and; Soyoil up 25 points


Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 11 yuan in Soybeans, up 12 in Corn, up 31 in Soymeal, up 32 in Soyoil, and up 48 in Palm Oil.


The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 11 ringgit at 2,733 (basis February)


Overnight US and China trade negotiators said they were making progress on Phase 1 talks. China announced the will drop tariffs on US soybean and pork imports. China crushers have used up their 10 mmt of duty free import licenses. This could help US soybean export to China. China is expected to import a record amount of meat in 2019/20. There is no word if US will delay increase tariffs on China goods on Dec15.


Sep-Nov US soybean and corn exports are below the pace to reach US export goals. Some feel USDA could drop US soybean exports 25 mil bu and corn export 50-100 mil bu on the Dec 10 report.


There are some signs that El Nino could be returning. This could suggest normal north hemisphere 2020 rainfall. It could also suggest a wet start to US spring plantings…again.


The South American weather forecast for Brazil in the 6 to 10 day outlook has rains continuing in the north with some increased chances of precip pushing south in the growing regions.


The Argentine weather forecast remains dry but there is a front still seen bringing some rainfall to the growing regions of Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and into Corrietntes.


The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has mostly quiet conditions across the Plains and Midwest over the next 10 days; then temps take a tumble.


In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 148 lots; Soyoil 711; Corn 66; HRW Wheat 2; Oats ZERO; SRW Wheat ZERO, and; HRS Wheat 10.


The player sheet had funds net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 4,000 Corn; were net buyers of 9,000 Soybeans; bought 6,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 1,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net long 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 145,000 Corn; net short 44,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 23,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 72,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 3,700 contracts; HRW Wheat down 225; Corn up 5,800; Soybeans up 13,800 contracts; Soymeal up 6,200 lots, and; Soyoil up 15,600.


There were changes in registrations (Oats down 10; Soybean oil down 57) —-Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 216; Soybeans 1,469; Soyoil 2,519 lots; Soymeal 710; Rice 477; HRW Wheat 11, and; HRS Wheat 804 contracts.





For the week ended November 28th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 6% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 23% with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year


—By class, HRW wheat sales are up 35%, shipments 60% ahead with a USDA forecast of a 15% increase

—SRW sales 3% behind, shipments 20% ahead with a 22% decline seen

—HRS sales 8% behind, shipments up 7% with a 1% decrease being forecasted


For the week ended November 28th, U.S. Corn sales are running 45% behind a year ago, shipments 57% behind with the USDA forecasting an 10% decline.


For the week ended November 28th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 8% ahead of a year ago, shipments 24% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year


—Soymeal sales 16% behind on the year, shipments down 3% with a 1% decrease forecasted

—Soyoil sales unchanged on the year, shipments 39% ahead with a 12% decline forecasted


So far, the U.S. 2019-20 soybean shipping season is going much better than last year’s effort thanks to more involvement from China in the U.S. market; but China’s interest in the U.S. oilseed is roughly half as strong as it had been in prior years because of the ongoing trade war and reduced domestic demand.

China’s exact bean needs remain uncertain, as do its intentions about buying the U.S. product going forward, especially with the big volumes out of Brazil as of late and a potential record crop on deck there for early 2020; the United States exported 5.94 million tons of soybeans in October, according to data published Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau; that is the highest monthly volume since December 2017 and is 9% higher than in October 2018.


















U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Andrew Wheeler told a biofuels company on Thursday that the agency is working to address industry concerns over biofuel blending rules that have sparked outrage across the Farm Belt; biofuel producers and representatives of corn farmers are unhappy with the EPA’s expanded use of waivers exempting oil refineries from their annual ethanol blending requirements; they say that agency’s efforts to address the issue with proposed tweaks to the 2020 blending requirements are not enough.


China boosted its soybean production by 13% in 2019 amid a trade war with No. 2 supplier the United States, official data showed on Friday, helping it record a slight rise in total food crop output; soybean production jumped to 18.1 million tons, the National Bureau of Statistics said, with the area devoted to the oilseed rising 11% after Beijing began offering generous subsidies to farmers to grow the beans.


Major crop output in millions of tonnes, National Bureau of Statistics.

2018 2019 Pct change
Corn 257.33 260.77 1.4
Wheat 131.43 133.59 1.6
Rice 212.13 209.6 -1.2
Soybeans 15.95 18.1 13.3


Soybeans planted in Argentina’s core agricultural zone benefited from ample rains over the last week, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in a report on Thursday, while 2019/20 wheat harvesting progressed to 46%.

Argentine growers are expected to plant 17.7 million hectares with soybeans this season, more than 49 percent of which is already in the ground, the report said.


Russia’s 2019 wheat crop is expected to total 75 million tons after drying and cleaning, up from 72 million tons in 2018, the agriculture ministry said; the grain crop will total 120 million tons, compared with 113 million tons in 2018


French farmers had completed 83% of soft wheat sowing for next year’s harvest by Dec. 2 compared with 80% a week earlier, farm office FranceAgriMer said; that was well below 99% sowing progress seen a year ago

—Harvesting of grain maize was 94% complete by Monday, up from 92% the previous week and also lagging the pace last year when the harvest had already ended by the same week.


Malaysian palm oil futures touched their highest level in more than two years on Friday and overtook soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade for the first time in almost nine years on supply shortage worries of the tropical product; dry weather and lower fertiliser use – a move adopted by some growers to save costs – have affected output this year at top producers Indonesia and Malaysia, and will continue to be a factor in the coming years