ADMIS AM Comments

Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 4 cents, HRW down 2; HRS Wheat up 2, Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 1, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 10 points.


For the month, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 43 cents; HRW down 42; HRS down 22; Corn is down 5 cents; Soybeans up 9; Soymeal down $3.00, and; Soyoil up 15 points. Crushing margins are down 4 cents at 85, Oil share up 1% at 33% .


Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 41 yuan, down 5 yuan in Corn, up 10 in Soymeal, up 10 in Soyoil, and up 26 in Palm Oil.


Malaysian palm oil prices were up 13 ringgit at 2,354 (basis September) at midsession supported by rival oils, Asian equities.


U.S. Weather Forecast


Showers and thunderstorms look to bring moderate rainfall to the eastern sections of the Midwest over the next 2 ½ to 3 days, then dry weather looks to take over.


The GFS model for the 6 to 10 day forecast still indicates some rains to fall in this time frame with moderate amounts however, these rains are now indicated to fall mainly in the northern ½ to 2/3rd of MN, WI and MI, rather than north of I-80.


Conditions are still expected to be good across much of the Corn Belt, Delta, and southeastern states, with some pockets that are drier than preferred in the Corn Belt due to the erratic nature of the thunderstorm activity


The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Southern Plains sees most of KS to be dry through the period; showers and thunderstorms look to produce light to moderate amounts of rainfall in OK and northern TX.


Net drying will continue the next two weeks from West Texas through western Oklahoma and western Kansas; the drought in this area will likely worsen and expand some causing more stress in unirrigated summer crops, but provide a favorable environment for wheat maturation and harvest progress.


Last evening’s GFS model showed a system mostly off the Atlantic coast leading to a reasonable rainfall scenario for the Southeast.


The player sheet had funds net buyers of 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 33,000 Corn; bought 2,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of soymeal, and; bought 4,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net short 50,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 283,000 Corn; net long 34,000 Soybeans; net short 52,000 lots of Soymeal, and; short 7,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,900 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,900; Corn down 51,000; Soybeans down 7,900 contracts; Soymeal down 12,000 lots, and; Soyoil down 7,000.


Deliveries were 10 Soymeal (estimate was ZERO to 200); 2,402 Soyoil (600 to 3,500); ZERO Rice; ZERO Corn (ZERO to 400); ZERO HRW Wheat (ZERO to 400); ZERO Oats; 0 Soybeans (ZERO to 250), 151 SRW Wheat (ZERO to 200), and; 487 HRS Wheat (200 to 800).


There were changes in registrations (SRW Wheat up 151; Soyoil up 150; Rice down 100)—


Registrations total 162 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,645 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 6; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS 488.





Tender Activity—Thailand seeks 236,800t optional-origin feed wheat—


Trade estimates for USDA June acreage, stocks reports (scheduled for release on Tuesday, June 30, at noon EDT)


U.S. quarterly stocks as of June 1 (in billions of bushels):

USDA June 1 Average of Range of USDA USDA
estimate analysts’ analysts’ March 1, June 1,
estimates estimates 2020 2019
Wheat _________ 0.980 0.925-0.996 1.412 1.080
Corn _________ 4.951 4.795-5.150 7.953 5.202
Soybeans _________ 1.392 1.275-1.490 2.253 1.783



U.S. plantings of major crops for 2020 harvest (in millions of acres):

USDA June 30 Average of Range of USDA USDA 2019
estimate analysts’ analysts’ March 31 final
estimates estimates figures figures
Corn ________ 95.207 93.000-97.100 96.990 89.700
Soybeans ________ 84.716 83.500-85.600 83.510 76.100
All wheat ________ 44.718 44.200-45.100 44.655 45.158
Winter wheat ________ 30.849 30.400-31.600 30.775 31.159
Other spring ________ 12.551 12.150-12.810 12.590 12.660
Durum ________ 1.313 1.200-1.440 1.290 1.339
All cotton ________ 13.153 12.500-13.750 13.703 13.738
Sorghum ________ 5.881 5.600-6.150 5.820 5.265
Barley ________ 2.835 2.500-3.000 2.921 2.721
Oats ________ 2.954 2.700-3.300 3.012 2.810
Rice ________ 2.828 2.600-3.000 2.847 2.540



POLL-U.S. corn seen rated 73% good-excellent, soybeans 70% – Reuters News


All figures in percent:

Category Analyst average Analyst range USDA last week
Corn condition* 73 70-74 72
Soybean condition* 70 68-72 70
Winter wheat harvested 44 40-55 29
Winter wheat condition* 52 51-53 52
Spring wheat condition* 75 72-76 75
*Percent good/excellent



U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 41% (trade estimate was 44%) versus 29% last week, 26% a year ago, 41% average.


U.S. Winter Wheat was rated 52% good to excellent (trade estimate was 52%) versus 52% a week ago and 63% a year ago; 32% fair (31% last week, 27% a year ago); 16% poor to very poor (17% last week, 10% a year ago).


U.S. Spring Wheat headed was 36% versus 12% last week, 20% a year ago, 45% average.


Spring Wheat was rated 69% good to excellent (trade estimate was 75%) versus 75% last week, and 75% a year ago 25% fair (21% a week ago, 21% a year ago), and; 4% poor to very poor (2% last week, 3% a year ago).


U.S. Corn silking was 4% versus 2% a week ago, 2% last year, and 7% average.


Corn was rated 73% good to excellent (trade estimate was 73%) versus 72% last week, and 56% a year ago; 22% fair (23% last week, 32% last year), 5% poor to very poor (5% last week, 12% last year).


U.S. Oats headed were 74% versus 58% a week ago, 54% last year, and 75% average.


Oats were rated 61% good to excellent versus 65% last week and 65% a year ago; 29% fair (27% last week, 28% a year ago), and; 10% poor to very poor (8% last week, 7 a year ago).


U.S. Soybeans blooming were 14% versus 5% a week ago, 2% a year ago, and 11% average.


U.S. Soybeans were rated 71% good to excellent (trade estimate was 70%) versus 70% a week ago, and 54% a year ago; 24% fair (25% last week, 35% a year ago), and; 5% poor to very poor (5% last week, 11% a year ago).


Wire story reports warm and dry conditions were beginning to stress the U.S. Crop Watch corn and soybean fields earlier this month, but timely rains over the past several days have bolstered crop health in many areas; however, there are some spots for concern



The North Dakota grower keeps corn and soybean conditions at 3 and 2, respectively, and those are the two lowest scores of the 16 fields. The crops received only spotty showers over the last several days and a good, soaking rain is still needed. This is not necessarily a widespread problem in the area as fields as close as 10 miles (16 km) have gotten decent rains. The Crop Watch fields had an unlucky week, and conditions may decline next week without rain, especially for soybeans.

The reader is reminded that only 9% of the corn field and 30% of the soybean field could be planted, and that will be a consideration when evaluating yield potential. Extremely wet spring conditions prevented a lot of planting in the area, and the saturation also made for poor emergence on many of the crops that could be planted.



Corn conditions in Minnesota remain at 4.75 and soybeans stay at 4.5. Corn grew a lot last week and intermittent rains kept moisture levels high. The Minnesota grower is the only one to report he does not want any more rain for now. The crops should be good on moisture for up to two weeks, depending on how warm the temperatures are. Hotter weather is forecast for later this week, but the producer does not mind.



The Nebraska producer increased corn condition a quarter-point to 4.25 and soybeans remain at 4. Rainfall totals were low last week but the temperatures were moderate and overall the weather was favorable for growing crops. The fields had gotten a good soaking a little over a week ago, but the grower may need to irrigate the corn at the end of this week if no rain is observed.



Condition scores in Kansas remain at 3.5. The area received up to 5 inches (13 cm) of rain over the last week, but the next week or two will likely feature very hot and dry weather. The producer expects unfavorable conditions for corn pollination, which should begin soon. Ratings are likely to decline if the weather forecast verifies.

The winter wheat harvest is up to 50% complete in the area, up from 5% last week, and the yield results are slightly better than the producers’ expectations, which were average. Based on what he is seeing and hearing from others, he would not be surprised if Kansas’ wheat yields are a little higher than current forecasts suggest.



Conditions remain at 5 for both Iowa fields, and they are the only two of the 16 that have maintained perfect ratings since the beginning of Crop Watch. Soils were getting a bit dry mid-month, but timely rains have kept the eastern Iowa prospects elevated. The weather was favorable for crops last week and that trend should continue over the next several days. The producer notes that fields look very good in the area and the yield outlook is promising.



The grower increased conditions in both fields to 5, up from 4 last week. That is the first time in a month that both Illinois fields scored a perfect 5, and the latest move came after well-timed rains over the weekend. Hot and dry weather was starting to become a problem a couple of weeks ago, but things are back on track and the grower says crops in the area are looking beautiful. The Illinois Crop Watch fields sit in the most productive agricultural district for soybeans in the country.



The Indiana producer raised corn condition by a quarter-point to 4.25 and soybeans by a half-point to 3.5 after plentiful rainfall over the past few days. The fields were very much in need of rain, but the recent moisture should be sufficient for the next 10 days or so, and the grower feels much better about the prospects. More rain is possible earlier this week, and that will give way to warmer, sunnier weather toward the weekend.



Corn conditions in Ohio are reduced to 4 from 4.5 last week as rainfall totals were low. That was the only score reduction among the 16 fields. Soybeans continue at 4. As in North Dakota, there have been decent rains in the area over the last few days, but the Ohio fields simply missed out. A lot of crops in Ohio were planted in very wet soils, and the recent stress from dryness emphasizes the imperfect planting conditions. Ratings are likely to fall without moisture this week, and aside from rain chances on Tuesday, the next few days will likely be dry.



TABLE-Trade estimates for USDA grain export inspections – Reuters News

Range Previous week
Wheat 450,000-650,000 613,052
Corn 1,000,000-1,300,000 1,295,845
Soybeans 275,000-550,000 254,929




WEEK ENDED:    06/25/2020    06/18/2020    06/18/2020    06/27/2019

Prelim.       Revised      Previous

–  Wheat          515,359       686,036       613,052       696,142

–  Oats                 0           100           100             0

–  Barley               0             0             0             0

–  Corn         1,234,690     1,295,845     1,295,845       284,923

–  Sorghum        158,657       109,945       109,945        56,255

–  Soybeans       324,512       255,810       254,929       720,842




Current Year      Last Year

–      Wheat      2,000,953      1,984,089

–       Oats            300            299

–     Barley            367          1,053

–       Corn     33,230,040     41,759,790

–    Sorghum      4,008,508      1,638,429

–   Soybeans     36,808,094     37,102,106



DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Thousand Bushels-Jun 29

Source: USDA


Grain              ——-week ending——-         current   previous

Jun 25      Jun 18          last     mkt yr     mkt yr

year    to date    to date

Barley                0           0             0         17         48

Corn             48,607      51,015        11,217  1,308,195  1,643,993

Flaxseed             10          1              0         11          1

Mixed                 0          0              0          0          0

Oats                  0           7             0         21         21

Rye                   0          0              0          0          0

Sorghum           6,246       4,328         2,215    157,806     64,501

Soybeans         11,924      9,399         26,486  1,352,452  1,363,255

Sunflower             0          0              0          0          0

Wheat            18,936     25,207         25,579     73,522     72,902

Total           85,723      89,957         65,496  2,892,024  3,144,722



Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had


—Wheat exports running unchanged on the year (10% behind last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year


—Corn 20% behind a year ago (23% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season


—Soybeans are down 1% on the year (unchanged last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year


The USDA’s weekly grain export inspections report showed only 342,512 metric tons of soybeans inspected for export this week–less than half of inspections at this time last year; additionally, China isn’t among the top destinations of US soybeans, with the top receivers being Egypt, Mexico and Japan.


Wire story reports industry analysts are expecting an unusually large decline in U.S. corn plantings on Tuesday when the U.S. government issues the results of its second acreage survey of the season; betting on the extremes does not generally bode well, but there is a decent chance for success this time based on 2020’s exceptionally low prices; the market was caught off guard earlier this year when the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s early March survey suggested farmers would plant 97 million acres of corn, an eight-year high; that was some 2.7% above the pre-report trade guess, among the biggest misses on record.


USDA May soybean crush seen at 180.7 million bushels – Reuters News


—The May U.S. soybean crush is expected to dip to 5.421 million short tons, or 180.7 million bushels,


Estimates ranged from 180.0 million bushels to 182.0 million bushels


The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Wednesday.


If realized, it would be the largest May crush on record, topping the prior record of 172.4 million bushels set in May 2018; but it would be down from an April crush of 183.4 million bushels and the smallest monthly crush since February.


U.S. soyoil stocks at the end of May were projected to drop to 2.372 billion lbs from 2.602 billion lbs at the end of April, which was the largest end-of-month supply in two years


Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 2.250 billion to 2.450 billion lbs


The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), whose members account for 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, reported a May crush of 169.584 million bushels and end-of-month oil stocks of 1.880 billion lbs.


Canadian farmers planted slightly more wheat overall in 2020 than in 2019, but the coronavirus outbreak will pose “unique challenges” in the production and distribution of crops, Statistics Canada said; armers planted 25.0 million acres of wheat, up 1.5% from 2019, thanks in part to a 16.2% boost in durum wheat, which Statscan linked to favorable prices


Canola plantings slipped 0.8% to 20.8 million acres as farmers shifted away from oilseeds, potentially because of high global supplies


Statistics Canada on Monday released the following preliminary estimates of principal field crop areas in June.


2018      2019      2020   2018/19    2019/20


Thousands of acres             % change


Total wheat      24,735    24,604    24,971    -0.5       1.5

Durum wheat       6,185     4,894     5,689   -20.9      16.2

Spring wheat     17,311    18,782    17,926     8.5      -4.6

Winter wheat      1,238       929     1,356   -25.0      45.9

Canola           22,813    20,956    20,778    -8.1      -0.8


North China’s Tianjin port handled a total of 2.72 million tons of soybean imports from January to May, up 62 percent year on year, according to the Tianjin customs; as domestic pig production and marketing have returned to normal, feed demand has increased significantly, driving the rapid growth of soybean imports via Tianjin Port; the main source of imports was the Americas, accounting for over 90 percent of the port’s total.


A new flu virus found in Chinese pigs has become more infectious to humans and needs to be watched closely in case it becomes a potential “pandemic virus”, a study said, although experts said there is no imminent threat.


Deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon and neighboring savannah may be hurting regional corn yields, according to a new study released; roughly one-fifth of Brazil’s Amazon has been cleared in the last 50 years, as the country went from being a food importer to a global farming powerhouse; in terms of corn, Brazil is now the world’s second largest exporter, after the United States.


Russian wheat export prices fell last week as the harvesting of the new crop started and global benchmark Chicago futures lost value; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loaded from Black Sea ports was at $200.5 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, down $1.5 from the previous week, SovEcon agriculture consultancy said; another consultancy, IKAR, pegged wheat for supply in August at $197 a ton, down $2 from the previous week.


Russia may not apply grain export quotas in the new 2020/21 agricultural season, beginning on July 1, provided the grain harvest is above 125 million tons and export potential at least 45 million tons


Ukrainian wheat production could fall 7.2% to 26.25 million tons this year due to a lower planting area and significant damage in southern regions after a prolonged drought, French consultancy Agritel said; Agritel’s crop estimate, which followed a June 15-19 field tour in Ukraine, is above a Reuters poll average of 25.4 million tons released on June 11, but close to grain traders’ union UGA’s forecast last week of 26.5 million tons.


Indonesia will keep its export tax for crude palm oil at zero for a fourth month in July, a document from the country’s Trade Ministry showed; reference price for CPO is set at $622.47 per ton for July, below a $750 per ton price threshold for exports tax to be imposed. Indonesia also collects export levy of $55 per ton for CPO export.


Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for June rose 29.1 percent to 1,622,432 tons from 1,256,395 tons shipped during May, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said


—Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the June 1-30 period are estimated up 28.7% on month at 1,629,086 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said