Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 4 cents, HRW down 2; HRS Wheat up 2, Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 1, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 10 points.
For the month, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 43 cents; HRW down 42; HRS down 22; Corn is down 5 cents; Soybeans up 9; Soymeal down $3.00, and; Soyoil up 15 points. Crushing margins are down 4 cents at 85, Oil share up 1% at 33% .
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 41 yuan, down 5 yuan in Corn, up 10 in Soymeal, up 10 in Soyoil, and up 26 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 13 ringgit at 2,354 (basis September) at midsession supported by rival oils, Asian equities.
U.S. Weather Forecast
Showers and thunderstorms look to bring moderate rainfall to the eastern sections of the Midwest over the next 2 ½ to 3 days, then dry weather looks to take over.
The GFS model for the 6 to 10 day forecast still indicates some rains to fall in this time frame with moderate amounts however, these rains are now indicated to fall mainly in the northern ½ to 2/3rd of MN, WI and MI, rather than north of I-80.
Conditions are still expected to be good across much of the Corn Belt, Delta, and southeastern states, with some pockets that are drier than preferred in the Corn Belt due to the erratic nature of the thunderstorm activity
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Southern Plains sees most of KS to be dry through the period; showers and thunderstorms look to produce light to moderate amounts of rainfall in OK and northern TX.
Net drying will continue the next two weeks from West Texas through western Oklahoma and western Kansas; the drought in this area will likely worsen and expand some causing more stress in unirrigated summer crops, but provide a favorable environment for wheat maturation and harvest progress.
Last evening’s GFS model showed a system mostly off the Atlantic coast leading to a reasonable rainfall scenario for the Southeast.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 33,000 Corn; bought 2,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of soymeal, and; bought 4,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 50,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 283,000 Corn; net long 34,000 Soybeans; net short 52,000 lots of Soymeal, and; short 7,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,900 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,900; Corn down 51,000; Soybeans down 7,900 contracts; Soymeal down 12,000 lots, and; Soyoil down 7,000.
Deliveries were 10 Soymeal (estimate was ZERO to 200); 2,402 Soyoil (600 to 3,500); ZERO Rice; ZERO Corn (ZERO to 400); ZERO HRW Wheat (ZERO to 400); ZERO Oats; 0 Soybeans (ZERO to 250), 151 SRW Wheat (ZERO to 200), and; 487 HRS Wheat (200 to 800).
There were changes in registrations (SRW Wheat up 151; Soyoil up 150; Rice down 100)—
Registrations total 162 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,645 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 6; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS 488.
TODAY—FND JULY FUTURES—DELIVERABLE STOCKS—USDA QTR STOCKS/PLANTED ACREAGE—
Tender Activity—Thailand seeks 236,800t optional-origin feed wheat—
Trade estimates for USDA June acreage, stocks reports (scheduled for release on Tuesday, June 30, at noon EDT)
U.S. quarterly stocks as of June 1 (in billions of bushels):
|USDA June 1||Average of||Range of||USDA||USDA|
|estimate||analysts’||analysts’||March 1,||June 1,|
U.S. plantings of major crops for 2020 harvest (in millions of acres):
|USDA June 30||Average of||Range of||USDA||USDA 2019|
POLL-U.S. corn seen rated 73% good-excellent, soybeans 70% – Reuters News
All figures in percent:
|Category||Analyst average||Analyst range||USDA last week|
|Winter wheat harvested||44||40-55||29|
|Winter wheat condition*||52||51-53||52|
|Spring wheat condition*||75||72-76||75|
U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 41% (trade estimate was 44%) versus 29% last week, 26% a year ago, 41% average.
U.S. Winter Wheat was rated 52% good to excellent (trade estimate was 52%) versus 52% a week ago and 63% a year ago; 32% fair (31% last week, 27% a year ago); 16% poor to very poor (17% last week, 10% a year ago).
U.S. Spring Wheat headed was 36% versus 12% last week, 20% a year ago, 45% average.
Spring Wheat was rated 69% good to excellent (trade estimate was 75%) versus 75% last week, and 75% a year ago 25% fair (21% a week ago, 21% a year ago), and; 4% poor to very poor (2% last week, 3% a year ago).
U.S. Corn silking was 4% versus 2% a week ago, 2% last year, and 7% average.
Corn was rated 73% good to excellent (trade estimate was 73%) versus 72% last week, and 56% a year ago; 22% fair (23% last week, 32% last year), 5% poor to very poor (5% last week, 12% last year).
U.S. Oats headed were 74% versus 58% a week ago, 54% last year, and 75% average.
Oats were rated 61% good to excellent versus 65% last week and 65% a year ago; 29% fair (27% last week, 28% a year ago), and; 10% poor to very poor (8% last week, 7 a year ago).
U.S. Soybeans blooming were 14% versus 5% a week ago, 2% a year ago, and 11% average.
U.S. Soybeans were rated 71% good to excellent (trade estimate was 70%) versus 70% a week ago, and 54% a year ago; 24% fair (25% last week, 35% a year ago), and; 5% poor to very poor (5% last week, 11% a year ago).
Wire story reports warm and dry conditions were beginning to stress the U.S. Crop Watch corn and soybean fields earlier this month, but timely rains over the past several days have bolstered crop health in many areas; however, there are some spots for concern
EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
The North Dakota grower keeps corn and soybean conditions at 3 and 2, respectively, and those are the two lowest scores of the 16 fields. The crops received only spotty showers over the last several days and a good, soaking rain is still needed. This is not necessarily a widespread problem in the area as fields as close as 10 miles (16 km) have gotten decent rains. The Crop Watch fields had an unlucky week, and conditions may decline next week without rain, especially for soybeans.
The reader is reminded that only 9% of the corn field and 30% of the soybean field could be planted, and that will be a consideration when evaluating yield potential. Extremely wet spring conditions prevented a lot of planting in the area, and the saturation also made for poor emergence on many of the crops that could be planted.
Corn conditions in Minnesota remain at 4.75 and soybeans stay at 4.5. Corn grew a lot last week and intermittent rains kept moisture levels high. The Minnesota grower is the only one to report he does not want any more rain for now. The crops should be good on moisture for up to two weeks, depending on how warm the temperatures are. Hotter weather is forecast for later this week, but the producer does not mind.
The Nebraska producer increased corn condition a quarter-point to 4.25 and soybeans remain at 4. Rainfall totals were low last week but the temperatures were moderate and overall the weather was favorable for growing crops. The fields had gotten a good soaking a little over a week ago, but the grower may need to irrigate the corn at the end of this week if no rain is observed.
Condition scores in Kansas remain at 3.5. The area received up to 5 inches (13 cm) of rain over the last week, but the next week or two will likely feature very hot and dry weather. The producer expects unfavorable conditions for corn pollination, which should begin soon. Ratings are likely to decline if the weather forecast verifies.
The winter wheat harvest is up to 50% complete in the area, up from 5% last week, and the yield results are slightly better than the producers’ expectations, which were average. Based on what he is seeing and hearing from others, he would not be surprised if Kansas’ wheat yields are a little higher than current forecasts suggest.
EAST CENTRAL IOWA
Conditions remain at 5 for both Iowa fields, and they are the only two of the 16 that have maintained perfect ratings since the beginning of Crop Watch. Soils were getting a bit dry mid-month, but timely rains have kept the eastern Iowa prospects elevated. The weather was favorable for crops last week and that trend should continue over the next several days. The producer notes that fields look very good in the area and the yield outlook is promising.
The grower increased conditions in both fields to 5, up from 4 last week. That is the first time in a month that both Illinois fields scored a perfect 5, and the latest move came after well-timed rains over the weekend. Hot and dry weather was starting to become a problem a couple of weeks ago, but things are back on track and the grower says crops in the area are looking beautiful. The Illinois Crop Watch fields sit in the most productive agricultural district for soybeans in the country.
The Indiana producer raised corn condition by a quarter-point to 4.25 and soybeans by a half-point to 3.5 after plentiful rainfall over the past few days. The fields were very much in need of rain, but the recent moisture should be sufficient for the next 10 days or so, and the grower feels much better about the prospects. More rain is possible earlier this week, and that will give way to warmer, sunnier weather toward the weekend.
Corn conditions in Ohio are reduced to 4 from 4.5 last week as rainfall totals were low. That was the only score reduction among the 16 fields. Soybeans continue at 4. As in North Dakota, there have been decent rains in the area over the last few days, but the Ohio fields simply missed out. A lot of crops in Ohio were planted in very wet soils, and the recent stress from dryness emphasizes the imperfect planting conditions. Ratings are likely to fall without moisture this week, and aside from rain chances on Tuesday, the next few days will likely be dry.
TABLE-Trade estimates for USDA grain export inspections – Reuters News
WEEK ENDED: 06/25/2020 06/18/2020 06/18/2020 06/27/2019
Prelim. Revised Previous
– Wheat 515,359 686,036 613,052 696,142
– Oats 0 100 100 0
– Barley 0 0 0 0
– Corn 1,234,690 1,295,845 1,295,845 284,923
– Sorghum 158,657 109,945 109,945 56,255
– Soybeans 324,512 255,810 254,929 720,842
MARKETING YEAR-TO-DATE INSPECTIONS
Current Year Last Year
– Wheat 2,000,953 1,984,089
– Oats 300 299
– Barley 367 1,053
– Corn 33,230,040 41,759,790
– Sorghum 4,008,508 1,638,429
– Soybeans 36,808,094 37,102,106
DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Thousand Bushels-Jun 29
Grain ——-week ending——- current previous
Jun 25 Jun 18 last mkt yr mkt yr
year to date to date
Barley 0 0 0 17 48
Corn 48,607 51,015 11,217 1,308,195 1,643,993
Flaxseed 10 1 0 11 1
Mixed 0 0 0 0 0
Oats 0 7 0 21 21
Rye 0 0 0 0 0
Sorghum 6,246 4,328 2,215 157,806 64,501
Soybeans 11,924 9,399 26,486 1,352,452 1,363,255
Sunflower 0 0 0 0 0
Wheat 18,936 25,207 25,579 73,522 72,902
Total 85,723 89,957 65,496 2,892,024 3,144,722
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had
—Wheat exports running unchanged on the year (10% behind last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year
—Corn 20% behind a year ago (23% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season
—Soybeans are down 1% on the year (unchanged last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
The USDA’s weekly grain export inspections report showed only 342,512 metric tons of soybeans inspected for export this week–less than half of inspections at this time last year; additionally, China isn’t among the top destinations of US soybeans, with the top receivers being Egypt, Mexico and Japan.
Wire story reports industry analysts are expecting an unusually large decline in U.S. corn plantings on Tuesday when the U.S. government issues the results of its second acreage survey of the season; betting on the extremes does not generally bode well, but there is a decent chance for success this time based on 2020’s exceptionally low prices; the market was caught off guard earlier this year when the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s early March survey suggested farmers would plant 97 million acres of corn, an eight-year high; that was some 2.7% above the pre-report trade guess, among the biggest misses on record.
USDA May soybean crush seen at 180.7 million bushels – Reuters News
—The May U.S. soybean crush is expected to dip to 5.421 million short tons, or 180.7 million bushels,
Estimates ranged from 180.0 million bushels to 182.0 million bushels
The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Wednesday.
If realized, it would be the largest May crush on record, topping the prior record of 172.4 million bushels set in May 2018; but it would be down from an April crush of 183.4 million bushels and the smallest monthly crush since February.
U.S. soyoil stocks at the end of May were projected to drop to 2.372 billion lbs from 2.602 billion lbs at the end of April, which was the largest end-of-month supply in two years
Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 2.250 billion to 2.450 billion lbs
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), whose members account for 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, reported a May crush of 169.584 million bushels and end-of-month oil stocks of 1.880 billion lbs.
Canadian farmers planted slightly more wheat overall in 2020 than in 2019, but the coronavirus outbreak will pose “unique challenges” in the production and distribution of crops, Statistics Canada said; armers planted 25.0 million acres of wheat, up 1.5% from 2019, thanks in part to a 16.2% boost in durum wheat, which Statscan linked to favorable prices
Canola plantings slipped 0.8% to 20.8 million acres as farmers shifted away from oilseeds, potentially because of high global supplies
Statistics Canada on Monday released the following preliminary estimates of principal field crop areas in June.
2018 2019 2020 2018/19 2019/20
Thousands of acres % change
Total wheat 24,735 24,604 24,971 -0.5 1.5
Durum wheat 6,185 4,894 5,689 -20.9 16.2
Spring wheat 17,311 18,782 17,926 8.5 -4.6
Winter wheat 1,238 929 1,356 -25.0 45.9
Canola 22,813 20,956 20,778 -8.1 -0.8
North China’s Tianjin port handled a total of 2.72 million tons of soybean imports from January to May, up 62 percent year on year, according to the Tianjin customs; as domestic pig production and marketing have returned to normal, feed demand has increased significantly, driving the rapid growth of soybean imports via Tianjin Port; the main source of imports was the Americas, accounting for over 90 percent of the port’s total.
A new flu virus found in Chinese pigs has become more infectious to humans and needs to be watched closely in case it becomes a potential “pandemic virus”, a study said, although experts said there is no imminent threat.
Deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon and neighboring savannah may be hurting regional corn yields, according to a new study released; roughly one-fifth of Brazil’s Amazon has been cleared in the last 50 years, as the country went from being a food importer to a global farming powerhouse; in terms of corn, Brazil is now the world’s second largest exporter, after the United States.
Russian wheat export prices fell last week as the harvesting of the new crop started and global benchmark Chicago futures lost value; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loaded from Black Sea ports was at $200.5 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, down $1.5 from the previous week, SovEcon agriculture consultancy said; another consultancy, IKAR, pegged wheat for supply in August at $197 a ton, down $2 from the previous week.
Russia may not apply grain export quotas in the new 2020/21 agricultural season, beginning on July 1, provided the grain harvest is above 125 million tons and export potential at least 45 million tons
Ukrainian wheat production could fall 7.2% to 26.25 million tons this year due to a lower planting area and significant damage in southern regions after a prolonged drought, French consultancy Agritel said; Agritel’s crop estimate, which followed a June 15-19 field tour in Ukraine, is above a Reuters poll average of 25.4 million tons released on June 11, but close to grain traders’ union UGA’s forecast last week of 26.5 million tons.
Indonesia will keep its export tax for crude palm oil at zero for a fourth month in July, a document from the country’s Trade Ministry showed; reference price for CPO is set at $622.47 per ton for July, below a $750 per ton price threshold for exports tax to be imposed. Indonesia also collects export levy of $55 per ton for CPO export.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for June rose 29.1 percent to 1,622,432 tons from 1,256,395 tons shipped during May, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said
—Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the June 1-30 period are estimated up 28.7% on month at 1,629,086 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said