ADMIS AM Comments 112019

By ADM Investor Services Research Team


Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 3 cents in the SRW Wheat, down 3 in HRW, and unchanged for HRS; Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal down $0.50, and; Soyoil up 35 points.


Corn, wheat and soybean futures remains range bound awaiting news on US and  China trade talks and South America weather. Early week trade is about supple issues. Also this week, news US exports prices are competitive offered support. Wednesday may be more about demand especially US export with corn and wheat sales to date below pace to reach USDA goal and soybean exports remaining above pace to reach USDA goal.


Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 1 yuan in Soybeans, down 9 in Corn, down 1 in Soymeal, up 92 in Soyoil, and up 158 in Palm Oil.


The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 65 ringgit at 2,687 (basis February) on lower output forecasts.


The U.S. Midwest weather forecast doesn’t have much change as widespread precip is seen for the region midweek; turning quiet by Friday into early next week; then rains to return the middle of next week. The 6 to 10 day temp outlook is a bit below average for the region.


The South American weather forecast for Brazil in the 6 to 10 day outlook is still for rainfall to be seen across most areas. Argentina has rains for most areas early next week before quieting down the rest of next week. Temps continue to run near average in most of South America over the next 10 days.


The player sheet had funds net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 11,000 Corn; were net even in Soybeans; bought 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 4,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net even in SRW Wheat; net short 135,000 Corn; net long 26,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 22,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 88,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 3,600 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,700; Corn up 29,700; Soybeans up 7,600 contracts; Soymeal down 7,400 lots, and; Soyoil down 11,500.


There were changes in registrations (Soybeans down 44 contracts)—Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 216; Soybeans 1,505; Soyoil 1,314 lots; Soymeal 710; Rice 477; HRW Wheat 11, and; HRS Wheat 669 contracts.





In tender activity—Syria seeks 150,000t Russian wheat—India seeks 100,000t optional-origin corn—


Deliverable stocks of SRW total 35.8 mil bu versus 36.8 mil last week and 66.3 mil a year ago

—Corn 3.9 mil bu versus 3.0 mil last week and 7.7 mil a year ago

—Soybeans 20.3 mil bu versus 20.1 mil last week and 16.3 mil a year ago


—KC Deliverable wheat roughly 98 mil bu versus 117 mil a year ago


—HRS Wheat 22 mil bu versus 19 mil a year ago


Wire story reports soybean trade between the United States and China has been disrupted for nearly a year and a half as the trade war rages on, but the extent to which an official pact would benefit the U.S. side largely depends on the details inside; restoring trade to the previous conditions and allowing China to purchase U.S. soybeans and other agricultural goods when the market is favorable is probably the optimal outcome.






Estimates for November USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report; the U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET Friday

Average            Range

of estimates      of estimates


On-feed November 1           101.4             98.2- 102.5

Placed in October            112.2             96.2- 119.0

Marketed in October           99.6             99.3- 100.1



The United States has reached an agreement ensuring the largest ever volume of guaranteed market access for U.S. rice exports to South Korea, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said on Tuesday; under the agreement, South Korea will provide access for 132,304 tons of U.S. rice annually at a value of about $110 million




Russia will boost its exports of grain in the second half of the current agricultural year (January-June 2020) despite the intensification of competition, according to the president of the Russian Grain Union; at the beginning of the season, we look very weak in our export positions; in any case, the market will get its share; in the first half, we gave the market away to our competitors, but in the second, we’ll take this market; the world can’t get by without our wheat


Australia’s wheat and dairy outlook has deteriorated in recent months as a result of an ongoing drought, says Fitch Solutions; it now forecasts Australian wheat production for 2019-20 to be 18 million metric tons compared with a previous forecast of 21 million metric tons; Fitch sees further downside risks to its revised forecast as the drought conditions are evenly spread across the country compared with last year.


Chances of below-average rains across southern Africa are threatening the region’s main cereal and grain planting season, says U.S.-funded research group FEWS NET; in recent years, droughts have contributed to poor cropping, watering and pasture conditions even in nations such as South Africa and Zambia, which usually produce surplus grain


Top palm oil producers Indonesia and Malaysia will see little growth in output next year, potentially leading to a supply deficit and higher prices, leading industry analyst James Fry said; Indonesia, the biggest producer, will grow production by 2%-3% next year, adding that output will be hurt by drought and lower fertilizer use; the outlook for Malaysia’s production growth was also bearish, he said, although he did not provide estimates


Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for November 1 – 20 rose 3.8 percent to 934,855 tonnes from 900,955 tonnes shipped during October 1 – 20, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said


—Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the November 1-20 period are estimated up 3.3% on month at 933,321 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday.