By ADM Investor Services Research Team
Wheat prices overnight are up roughly 2 cents in the SRW Wheat, up 1 in HRW, and unchanged HRS; Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal down $0.50, and; Soyoil up 25 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 15 yuan in Soybeans, down 10 in Corn, down 32 in Soymeal, down 68 in Soyoil, and down 30 in Palm Oil.
The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 47 ringgit at 2,562 (basis January) on expected production drops.
Chicago corn futures ticked higher for the first time in five sessions on Wednesday, helped by bargain buying, although gains were limited as dry weather is expected to boost the U.S. harvest. Soybeans were little changed, while wheat rose for a second straight session. Some precipitation is expected over the next week, but the weather is not likely to significantly delay harvesting. The wheat market is being underpinned by estimates of lower production in Australia. One brokerage group said on Wednesday a poll of its clients estimated Australian wheat production during the 2019/29 season would be nearly 20% lower than official estimates
The U.S. 11 to 16 Day Outlook for the Plains and Midwest continues with a warming temp forecast to the region for the period with but an increase in precip.
The South American weather forecast still has rains for most of Brazil with rainfall also in Argentina except in the region of Buenos Aires. Temps average to below in Argentina, average to above in Brazil.
In deliveries, Soybeans totaled ZERO contracts.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 9,000 Corn; sold 4,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 4,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 103,000 Corn; net long 77,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 33,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 77,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 920 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,800; Corn up 3,200; Soybeans up 4,000 contracts; Soymeal up 3,800 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,000.
There were changes in registrations (Rice down 106)—Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 216; Soybeans 1,769; Soyoil 1,516 lots; Soymeal 710; Rice 795; HRW Wheat 11, and; HRS Wheat 669 contracts.
TODAY—–WEEKLY ETHANOL DATA—
In tender activity—Egypt yesterday was a buyer of 175,000t French and Russian wheat—S. Korea bought 201,000t optional-origin corn; another feed group bought 55,000t Ukraine corn—
The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer improved 15 points to a reading of 136 in October; the barometer is based on a mid-month survey of 400 U.S. crop and livestock producers.
CBOT deliverable grain stocks summary – Reuters News
Location WHEAT CORN SOYBEANS OATS RICE
TOTALS 40,457 2,386 18,390 11,638 20,167
Week Ago Totals 40,593 2,454 18,710 10,298 19,963
Year Ago Totals 67,376 7,479 15,809 18,633 24,227
KCBT weekly deliverable HRW wheat stocks – Reuters News
11/01/19 Wk Ago Yr Ag
HUTCHINSON, KANSAS
TOTAL STOCKS 25,144 25,143 28,993
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI/KANSAS
TOTAL STOCKS 12,928 12,859 12,077
SALINA, KANSAS
TOTAL STOCKS 29,912 30,731 37,363
WICHITA, KANSAS
TOTAL STOCKS 36,917 37,253 45,444
MGEX deliverable HRS wheat stocks – Reuters News
MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL RED WING
11/03/19 WEEK AGO YEAR AGO
Total 5,272 5,404 1,886
DULUTH/SUPERIOR
Total 19,512 19,774 20,089
U.S. September Grain Exports-Nov 5
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Sep 19 Aug 19 Jul 19 Sep 18(*)
Barley 166,356 172,464 259,515 134,527
Corn /1 79,857,895 111,215,968 113,465,801 206,900,449
Sorghum 8,019,272 12,296,156 6,313,344 2,879,956
Oats 170,314 99,061 140,749 167,469
Wheat /1 84,980,480 94,469,465 71,400,821 67,888,926
wheat flour /1 530,914 555,892 518,626 552,201
U.S. September Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Nov 5
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Sep 19 Aug 19 Jul 19 Sep 18(*)
soybeans 142,932,044 181,187,606 135,232,044 118,950,310
soyoil 48,538,671 165,586,974 174,323,535 121,668,928
crude 30,729,942 138,472,558 150,634,473 91,829,925
refined 212,517 389,586 133,704 182,699
other/1 17,099,113 26,240,168 22,957,899 29,066,263
hydrogenated 497,098 484,662 597,459 590,041
soymeal 754,809 888,850 789,938 907,121
soymeal flour/me 198,945 136,987 93,705 235,475
soymeal hulls 17,738 10,090 24,531 18,220
Brazilian farmers plan to start a campaign next week to end a ban by trading firms on buying soybeans from parts of the Amazon rainforest cleared after 2008; the push to end traders’ voluntary “soy moratorium” — one of the farm industry’s most high-profile efforts to preserve the Amazon — comes despite mounting global pressure on Brazil to protect the environment from its expanding farm frontier
Russia exported 17.5 million tons of grain between July 1 and October 31, the Agriculture Ministry said; a year ago, grain exports totaled 19.8 million tons between July 1 and October 28.
—According to a ministry forecast, exports are expected at 45 million tons for the whole farming year, (July 2019-June 2020) including 36 million tons of wheat
—In the previous year, Russia exported 43.3 million tons of grain, including 35.3 million tons of wheat
The European Union and China have agreed to protect 100 European regional food names, known as geographical indications (GI), in China and 100 Chinese geographical indications in the EU, said a statement from the EU Commission
China should finish its investigation into whether Australian barley suppliers dumped cheap imports into the country within months, in line with global trade rules, the Australia’s Minister said; the Chinese probe, widely considered politically motivated, has shaken barley trading between the two countries, with traders hesitant of booking new shipments when tariffs could be imposed
Malaysia palm oil stockpiles forecast to rise 2.8% in October – Reuters News
- Oct stocks seen rising 2.8% to 2.52 mln T – survey
- Output seen 2% higher at 1.88 mln T – survey
- Exports seen up 13.1% to 1.59 mln T – survey
- Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due Nov. 11
Breakdown of September estimates (in tonnes):
| Range | Median | |
| Production | 1,700,000 – 1,918,000 | 1,879,282 |
| Exports | 1,340,000 – 1,610,000 | 1,594,000 |
| Imports | 48,000 – 120,000 | 52,000 |
| Closing Stocks | 2,450,000- 2,780,000 | 2,516,000 |
Trade estimates for USDA November U.S. corn, soy production – Reuters News
| Corn | Soybeans | |||||
| Output | Yield | Harv.area | Output | Yield | Harv.area | |
| Average trade estimate | 13.643 | 167.5 | 81.455 | 3.510 | 46.6 | 75.422 |
| Highest trade estimate | 13.785 | 168.5 | 81.820 | 3.609 | 47.6 | 75.900 |
| Lowest trade estimate | 13.372 | 165.5 | 80.100 | 3.396 | 45.5 | 75.100 |
| USDA October | 13.779 | 168.4 | 81.815 | 3.550 | 46.9 | 75.626 |
Trade estimates for USDA November U.S. grain end-stocks – Reuters News
| Wheat | Corn | Soy | |
| Average trade estimate | 1.035 | 1.817 | 0.428 |
| Highest trade estimate | 1.073 | 1.959 | 0.494 |
| Lowest trade estimate | 1.003 | 1.481 | 0.306 |
| USDA October | 1.043 | 1.929 | 0.460 |
Trade estimates for USDA November world crop end-stocks – Reuters News
| Wheat | Corn | Soy | |
| Average trade estimate | 287.03 | 300.31 | 93.85 |
| Highest trade estimate | 288.00 | 304.35 | 95.74 |
| Lowest trade estimate | 285.07 | 291.10 | 88.00 |
| USDA October | 287.80 | 302.55 | 95.21 |