ADMIS AM Comments 100319

By ADM Investor Services Research Team


Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 1 cent in the SRW Wheat, down 3 in HRW, and down 4 for HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal down $0.20, and; Soyoil up 1 points.


The most active wheat futures had a big drop on Wednesday as U.S. supplies struggled to compete against major exporters in the Black Sea and Europe. Market attention now turns to latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) export data.


Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, said on Wednesday it bought

60,000 tonnes of French wheat in a tender for shipment over Nov. 5-15.


The most active soybean futures were near unchanged at $9.13-1/4 a bushel, after closing down 0.6% on

Wednesday. Despite the drop in the previous session, recent Chinese buying and the USDA’s surprisingly low estimate for U.S. soybean stocks provide a floor to losses.


Chinese companies purchased up to 600,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans on Monday as part of a tariff-free quota

allotted to importers to buy as much as 2 million tonnes, two sources with knowledge of the deals said.


The USDA on Monday pegged U.S. soybean supplies at 913 million bushels as of Sept. 1, below the average

estimate for 982 million bushels. Soybean stocks, however, were up 108% from a year earlier, largely due to a drop in U.S. exports to China. The most active corn futures were unchanged at $3.87-3/4 a bushel, having closed down 1.2% in the previous session.


INTL FC Stone’s forecast for this year’s U.S. corn harvest added to the bearish tone. The firm on Tuesday

raised its estimate of the average U.S. 2019 corn yield to 169.3 bushels per acre, from 168.4 in its previous

monthly report

Grains prices at

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has freeze chances improving in the Northwest region, other wises, seems typical.


The 11 to 16 day has average to above precip and near average temps.


For South America—seems non-commital in the sense of rains moving into sections of Brazil, and parts of Argentina.


In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 170 lots; Soyoil 64.


The player sheet had funds net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 20,000 Corn; bought 13,000 soybeans; net bought 8,000 Soymeal, and; sold 3,000 lots of Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net short 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 98,000 Corn; net short 22,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 44,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 17,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 1,500 contracts; HRW Wheat up roughly 5,400; Corn down 11,700; Soybeans up 5,100 contracts; Soymeal down 1,300 lots, and; Soyoil up 825.


There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 60 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1,071; Soybeans 1,144; Soyoil 1,535 lots; Soymeal 810; Rice 1,142; HRW Wheat 11, and; HRS Wheat 687 contracts.





In tender activity—-Egypt bought French wheat—Morocco approves 576,000t EU wheat imports—

Algeria passed on 50,000t optional-origin corn sale


Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain, soy export sales – Reuters News


Trade estimates for 2018-19 Trade estimates for 2019-20
Wheat N/A 200,000-600,000
Corn N/A 400,000-800,000
Soybeans N/A 900,000-1,400,000
Soymeal 0-100,000 50,000-250,000
Soyoil 0-15,000 5,000-25,000



World food prices were stable in September with a fall in sugar prices offset by climbs for vegetable oils and meat, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday.

–The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) food price index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar, averaged 169.9 points last month unchanged from August; the August figure was previously given as 169.8


China’s hog herd fell by half in the first eight months of 2019 due to a devastating outbreak of African swine fever and will likely shrink by 55% by the end of the year, analysts at Rabobank said


S.Korea confirms 13th case of African swine fever

–South Korea confirmed two additional cases of deadly African swine fever at pig farms in towns near its border with North Korea, the country’s agriculture ministry said


The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency may use partial small refinery exemptions under the Trump administration’s biofuels deal to help farmers and boost ethanol consumption, two sources familiar with the matter said


The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has so far paid farmers $14.03 billion of a promised $28 billion as compensation for the effects of Washington’s trade disputes with China, an agency official told


Brazilian corn growers have already traded about a quarter of their second corn crop, which is planted after soybeans are collected from fields, according to estimates