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By ADM Investor Services Research Team
Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 4 cents in the SRW Wheat, down 3 in HRW, and unchanged for HRS; Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 5; Soymeal down $1.50, and; Soyoil down 5 points.
Chinese Ag futures (September) settled up 11 yuan in Soybeans, down 2 in Corn, down 9 in Soymeal, down 16 in Soyoil, and up 8 in Palm Oil.
The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 25 ringgit at 2,021 (basis September) on softer export demand.
Chicago corn futures slid to a one-week low on Thursday, falling for a third consecutive session, as prices were pressured by fund selling although planting delays provided a floor under the market. Wheat and soybean futures lost ground. “It seems the corn market is putting in a strong case for having reached a peak for now,” said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “The U.S. corn crop is going to be substantially smaller in season 2019. Nonetheless the drop does not leave supply tight, it just loses comfort.” Heavy rains across the Midwest threaten to delay planting of both corn and soybeans. Both crops are lagging well behind historical average levels, but the biggest concern centers around corn, which has an earlier planting window.
The U.S. Midwest weather forecast had no major changes as rains will fall across the region the rest of the week, the weekend, and the beginning of next week; ridging then develops leading to average rainfall in the north and below average levels in the south for the rest of next week—-temps will be running average to below average the next 5 days warming up to average to above average as we go through next week.
The Southern U.S. Plains has no major changes as rainfall is seen favoring the east over the next 5 days; the 6 to 10 day looks to be fairly quiet in the western sections with the east seeing continued rainfall—temps will be running below average over the next 5 days, average to above past that.
The Northern U.S. Plains has above average rainfall over the next 5 days; the 6 to 10 day calls for moderate to light rains—temps will be average to below average.
The U.S. Delta and Southeastern states continues with a favorable mix of weather for both areas over the next ten days to two weeks.
The 11 to 16 Day Outlook has no changes as it looks for ridging across the Plains and Midwest with above average temps and below average precip in place into the July 4th holiday period.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 26,000 Corn; sold 10,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 5,000 Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 167,000 Corn; net short 49,000 contracts of Soybeans; net long 10,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 37,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 260 contracts; HRW Wheat down 700; Corn up 5,600; Soybeans down 33,000 contracts; Soymeal down 5,400 lots, and; Soyoil down 7,000 lots.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 9 contracts for SRW Wheat; 2 Oats; Corn 1,036; Soybeans 640; Soyoil 3,547 lots; Soymeal ZERO; Rice 661; HRW Wheat 5, and; HRS Wheat 376 contracts.
TODAY—–WEEKLY EXPORT SALES—
In tender activity—Egypt bought 290,000t wheat (110,000t Russian, 180,000t Romanian—Bangladish seeks 100,000t Russian wheat—Japan bought 61,000t U.S. wheat—India postpones tender for optional-origin corn—S. Korea seeks 60,000t South American soymeal—
Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain, soy export sales – Reuters News
|Trade estimates for 2018-19||Trade estimates for 2019-20|
U.S. ethanol production for the week ended June 14th averaged 1.081 mil barrels per day (down 1.37% versus a week ago, up 1.60% versus a year ago); stocks totaled 21.613 mil barrels (down 0.87% versus a week ago, down 0.16% versus last year); corn use for the week was 111.6 mil bu (113.2 mil last week and versus the 97.1 mil bu needed to meet USDA projections).
Farmers who have been unable to plant their soybeans and corn because of this spring’s never-ending rains told Ohio’s governor on Wednesday that it will take years to recover their losses; they also said the impact will be felt throughout the agriculture industry and could result in higher prices in stores; dairy operations, fertilizer dealers and farm equipment sellers will feel the squeeze too; the ripple effect will be huge,” said the Governor., who last week asked the U.S. Department of Agriculture to issue a disaster declaration that would make aid available.
Top Chinese and U.S. officials will hold trade talks following instructions from their leaders, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday, adding that Beijing hoped Washington would create the necessary conditions for dialogue; China hopes the United States will listen to its industry and stop threatening tariffs and waging a trade war.
Weekly U.S. Poultry Stats
—Broiler-Type Eggs Set in the United States Down Slightly
—Broiler-Type Chicks Placed in the United States Up 2 Percent
CHINA SELLS 1,832,431 TONNES OF CORN, OR 46.11% OF TOTAL OFFER, AT AUCTION OF STATE RESERVES; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE OF CORN IS 1,676 YUAN/TONNE -TRADE CENTRE
Fall armyworm invades crops across Asia, smallholders worst hit; India, China, Thailand, Indonesia hit by pest attack; Asia’s small farmers reluctant to use new technologies; impossible to eradicate, farmers can only manage the pest; animal feed makers likely to import larger volumes of corn
Brazil’s Sao Martinho SA, one of the country’s largest sugar and ethanol producers, plans to build a facility to produce ethanol from corn in the state of Goiás; Sao Martinho is the latest in a growing number of companies starting to produce ethanol from corn in Brazil, a country where the fuel has always been made from sugarcane.
Heavy storms that have hit eastern Argentina over the past few days will cause delays in planting of next season’s wheat crop, though should not affect the size of the area expected to be planted with the cereal; Argentina has been benefiting recently from adverse weather hitting U.S. wheat crops, with the local exchange estimating record wheat production in the 2019/20 season.
IKAR, one of the leading agriculture consultancies in Moscow, said on Thursday that it had downgraded its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports in the new 2019/20 marketing season which starts on July 1 by 500,000 tons to 36.5 million tons
—Its forecast for Russia’s 2019 wheat crop was cut by 500,000 tons to 80 million tons due to dry weather in Russia’s southern region, the eastern part of the central Black Soil region and in part of the Volga region
—added that it downgraded its estimate of 2019 grain crop to 124.7 million tons from 126.2 million tons
—Its forecast for 2019/20 grain exports was cut to 46 million tons from 47.4 million tons
SovEcon, one of the leading agriculture consultancies in Moscow, said that it had downgraded its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports in the new 2019/20 marketing season which starts on July 1 by 600,000 tons to 37.6 million tons
—Its forecast for 2019/20 grain exports was cut by 500,000 tons to 48.9 million tons
—Its grain export forecast currently includes 5.2 million tons of barley and 4.1 million tons of corn
Ukraine could increase grain exports to China in the 2019/2020 marketing year (MY, July-June), the adviser to the president of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has said; China this year has experienced a significant reduction in the number of pigs due to ASF, and since substitution of pork with imports is quite expensive and time consuming, China is likely to compensate for the deficiency of protein in poultry; this factor and the trade war with the United States will lead to an increase in demand for barley and other grains, which Ukraine can take advantage of.
Selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Poland
—The Government of Poland’s Main Statistical Office published preliminary marketing year (MY) 2019/20 crop area estimates for grains; estimates the total wheat, rye, barley, oats, mixed grains, triticale, and corn area at approximately 7.7 million hectares (Ha), a 0.2-percent increase over MY 2018/19; total crop production estimates for MY 2019/20 are about 31 million metric tons (MMT)
Selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Morocco
—Post forecasts that wheat and barley production will be unchanged from USDA’s current official estimates; as expected, Morocco renewed its domestic support program for MY 2019/20 without significant changes and increased the most-favored nation (MFN) import duty on common wheat to 135% ahead of harvest; the high seasonal tariff rate is set to remain in place through September 1, 2019
Egypt has so far procured 3.66 million tons of local wheat in the harvest, an agriculture ministry said
Japan’s usage of corn in animal feed rose to 48.8% in April, compared with 48.4% in the same month of 2018, preliminary data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries showed
Selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Philippines
—Philippine inflation continued to decline in 2019, mainly because of considerable food and feed grain imports; although inflation slightly increased to 3.2 percent in May 2019 due to food price adjustments brought about by a mild El Niño, Philippine government planners expect full year inflation to settle within the 2-4 percent target for 2019; Post concurs with the official USDA estimates for wheat, corn, and rice
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the June 1-20 period are estimated down 5.8% on month at 913,159 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said
World Weather, Inc.
7 DAY PRECIP FORECAST
U.S. 6-10 DAY FORECAST (TEMP/PRECIP)
U.S. 8-14 DAY FORECAST (TEMP/PRECIP)