ADMIS AM Comments 013120

Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 7 cents, HRW down 5, HRS Wheat down 4, Corn is down 4 cents, Soybeans down 9, Soymeal down $2.00, and Soyoil down 55 points.


For the week, Winter Wheat prices are down roughly 10 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 12 for the Hard Red Winter, and down 8 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is down 6 cents; Soybeans down 22; Soymeal down $6.00, and; Soyoil down 130 points; March crushing margins are down 5 cents at $1.01; March, oil-share is unchanged at 34%.


For the month, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 5 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 14 for the Hard Red Winter, and down 22 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is down 6 cents; Soybeans down 64; Soymeal down $7.00, and; Soyoil down 375 points


For the year, SRW wheat prices were up roughly 5 cents, HRW down 14, and HRS down 22; Corn was down roughly 7 cents, Soybeans down 64, Soymeal down $7.00, and Soyoil down 380 points.


The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 53 ringgit at 2,599 (basis April) reportedly on crude oil losses.


Overnight, soybeans, soymeal and corn are unchanged. Wheat is lower. Soyoil is lower. US stocks are lower.

Some look for Mondays trade to be volatile. China will be back from Holiday. Some feel increase cases of the spread of coronavirus over the weekend could open their stock market sharply lower and trade even lower. This could weigh on US stocks and most commodities. Others feel China could come in and start buying US Ag goods to help feed their people. This could include meat and soyoil.


Some estimate that SARS in 2003 and Asian swine flu in 2009  spread over 43 days. This raises concern that the worst of the coronavirus outbreak may lie ahead.


The South American weather forecast for Brazil continues with moderate rainfall for much of the growing regions over the next 6 to 10 days.


The Argentine weather forecast has a front bringing rainfall to mostly the northern growing regions at this time with things quieting down as the week winds down


The player sheet had funds net even in SRW Wheat; net sold 15,000 Corn; sold 11,000 Soybeans; net sold 5,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 6,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net long 25,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 46,000 Corn; net short 52,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 51,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 86,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 1,800 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,800; Corn up 4,300; Soybeans up 5,500 contracts; Soymeal up 6,400 lots, and; Soyoil down 16,500.


There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 58; Soybeans 131; Soyoil 2,793 lots; Soymeal 1,714; Rice 565; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 788 contracts.





In tender activity—S. Korea bought 69,000t optional –origin corn—


For the week ended January 23rd, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 17% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 26% with the USDA forecasting a 4% increase on the year


For the week ended January 23rd, U.S. Corn sales are running 33% behind a year ago, shipments 45% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline.


For the week ended January 23rd, U.S. Soybean sales are running 4% ahead of a year ago, shipments 43% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year


—Soymeal sales 2% ahead on the year, shipments up 16% with a 3% decrease forecasted

—Soyoil sales 35% ahead of a year ago, shipments 66% ahead with a 12% decline forecasted


Wire story reports  uncertainty surrounding geopolitics, the rules of international trade and the climate make it “extremely difficult” to predict how food prices will move in the coming years, says the lead senior economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization; in the short term, he says the spread of coronavirus will “inevitably” hit demand for grains and oilseeds


The United States is expected to have a more modest corn and soybean inventory later this year than a year earlier, but the lighter stockpiles could be just a flash in the pan as millions of acres that sat idle last year are due to re-enter the mix.


Argentina’s soybean harvest for the 2019/20 season is forecast at 53.1 million tonnes, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said, an improvement from a prediction it made towards the end of last year; the forecast is above the 51 million tons estimated in October, but below the previous season’s harvest of 55.1 million tons


China’s imports of U.S. soybeans surged in December from a year earlier as China ramped up purchases; China brought in 3.09 million tons of soybeans from the United States in December, 44 times the level a year ago, data from the General Administration of Customs showed; the figure was also up from 2.56 million tons in November, after some delayed cargoes cleared customs, but was still shy of the six million-plus levels for U.S. December imports to China in 2017 and earlier years.


The European Commission increased its monthly forecast of 2019/20 European Union maize imports to 20 million tons from 19 million previously; in its monthly cereal supply and demand data, the Commission kept unchanged its forecast for EU common wheat exports this season at 28 million tons.


Russian wheat production this year could reach 79.5 million tons, one of the biggest volumes ever, after farmers sowed a record winter wheat area, consultancy IKAR said


The idea that climate change will open up widely-used new shipping routes through the Arctic is a “myth,” says Cyrille Coutansais, director of research at the Center for Strategic Studies of the Navy in France; more hydrocarbons will be transported through the Arctic, but ships carrying cargoes and commodities–such as grain–will steer clear,


Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the January 1-31 period are estimated down 7.9% on month at 1,220,484 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said

—Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Jan. 1-31 period are estimated 8.7% lower on month at 1,231,385 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said