ADMIS AM Comments 013020

Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 3 cents, HRW down 3, HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is down 2 cents, Soybeans down 4, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 40 points.


Chinese Ag futures are closed for holiday. The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 65 ringgit at 2,658 (basis April) on more Asian demand, production fears.


US stocks, Crude, soybeans, soyoil, soymeal, corn and wheat are lower. US Dollar and gold ae higher. Reports and more cases of the coronavirus and more deaths has commodity, stocks and energy markets trading lower.

Russia closed its borders to China in hopes to reduce the spread of the virus in Russia. Most airlines have either cancelled or reduced flights into China. China could see a 1 pct drop in GDP due to the virus.


The South American weather forecast for Brazil remains with rainfall for much of the growing regions over the next 6 to 10 days


The Argentine weather forecast turns drier for the rest of the week and weekend with another rain event seen early next week


The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 7,000 Corn; sold 4,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 2,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net long 25,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 61,000 Corn; net short 41,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 46,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 92,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures mostly unchanged; HRW Wheat up 1,000; Corn up 5,000; Soybeans up 2,400 contracts; Soymeal up 2,700 lots, and; Soyoil down 920.


There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 58; Soybeans 131; Soyoil 2,793 lots; Soymeal 1,714; Rice 565; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 788 contracts.





In tender activity—Ethiopia bought 70,000t optional-origin wheat—Algeria bought may have bought up to 35,000t optional-origin soymeal—



Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain, soy export sales – Reuters News

Trade estimates for 2019-20 Trade estimates for 2020-21
Wheat 300,000-700,000 0-50,000
Corn 600,000-1,200,000 30,000-100,000
Soybeans 400,000-1,000,000 0-100,000
Soymeal 200,000-500,000 0
Soyoil 8,000-40,000 0



Farm bankruptcies hit their highest levels since 2011, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation; Chapter 12 bankruptcies in 2019 totaled 590 filings–up nearly 100 filings since 2018 and the highest level since 637 filings in 2011


At a farmer meeting in Wisconsin yesterday, majority of farmers have sold only 25 pct of 2019 crop. Their crops is smaller than last year and US subsidy payments has slowed selling. Some will not sell corn until either prices mover higher or they see the outlook of their 2020 crop. This lack of selling is despite record high basis.


U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said he does not know whether China’s coronavirus outbreak will affect Beijing’s pledge to radically increase purchases of American farm goods under an initial trade deal.


Russia’s agriculture ministry said it sees the 2020 grain crop at 125.3 million tons; in 2019, Russia’s harvest amounted to 120.7 million ton


Wheat output in India is likely to hit a record high this year, pushed by a favorable climate and increase in government support prices, which encouraged more sowing; data compiled by National Collateral Management Services (NCML, a non-government body) shows a 6.3 per cent rise to 109 million tons; the Union ministry of agriculture’s first advance estimate was 100.5 mt, as compared to 102 mt in last year’s fourth advance estimate.


Prime Minister Imran Khan (Pakistan) directed for taking all possible steps to meet wheat requirements in the country and said that it should be ensured that no complaint over wheat or flour shortage could surface from any part of the country; chairing a meeting over the availability of wheat, its demand, current stock and meeting the future requirements, he also stressed upon focusing on tackling the issues of hoarding and profiteering.


Indonesian palm oil exports are expected to remain sluggish over the coming months as prices continue to climb, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says; the USDA notes Indonesia’s palm oil exports for October and November were down 6% on year, and adds that the nationwide implementation of biodiesel containing 30% palm-based fuel in January has been a major factor driving palm oil prices and domestic consumption higher.