ADMIS AM COmmentary

By ADM Investor Services Research Team


Wheat prices overnight are up roughly 2 cents in the SRW Wheat, up 3 in HRW, and up 2 for HRS; Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans down 1; Soymeal down $0.50, and; Soyoil up 5 points.


Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 9 yuan in Soybeans, up 4 in Corn, down 2 in Soymeal, down 96 in Soyoil, and down 98 in Palm Oil.


The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 23 ringgit at 2,609 (basis January) on export deals signed to South Asia and China.


The U.S. Midwest weather forecast continues with fair harvest conditions for the region over the next week to ten days. Any precip activity looks to move through the northern region of the area.


The South American weather forecast has rainfall for northern Brazil over the next 5 days. The 6 to 10 day forecast for Brazil is rains mostly in the northern regions with lesser amounts in the south. The 6 to 10 day forecast has rainfall for most Argentine growing regions. Temps are seen running near average in most of South America.


In deliveries, Soybeans totaled 214 contracts.


The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 10,000 Corn; sold 4,000 Soybeans; bought 5,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 6,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net short 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 133,000 Corn; net long 44,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 32,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 73,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 9,000 contracts; HRW Wheat down 8,000; Corn up 17,000; Soybeans up 5,700 contracts; Soymeal up 1,000 lots, and; Soyoil down 3,200.


There were changes in registrations (Soybeans down 74 contracts, Rice down 36)—Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 216; Soybeans 1,729; Soyoil 1,516 lots; Soymeal 710; Rice 677; HRW Wheat 11, and; HRS Wheat 669 contracts.





In tender activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat—S. Korea delays tender on 250,000t soybeans—


Farm Purchases Stall Trade Deal; Beijing resists putting a number on how much it will import, seeking leeway

—U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to jack up U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods if the world’s two largest economies fail to reach a trade deal could raise the price of cellphones, laptops, and toys less than two weeks before Christmas



U.S. soy processors ramped up their crush last month as more newly harvested beans became available, although the month’s crush was likely below the record pace set in October 2018

—likely crushed 166.795 million bushels of soybeans last month; if realized, it would be the second largest October crush on record, behind only the 172.346 million bushels crushed in October 2018

—would reflect a 9.3% increase from September, when NOPA members crushed 152.566 million bushels; crush forecasts for October ranged from 157.500 million to 173.000 million bushels


—Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of October were projected at 1.420 billion pounds, based on the average of estimates

—Stocks at the end of September stood at 1.442 billion pounds, and 1.503 billion pounds at the end of October 2018

—Estimates for soyoil stocks ranged from 1.329 billion to 1.500 billion pounds


Australian bulk grain handler Grain Corp on Thursday warned of an even weaker crop outlook for 2020, after the drought that has ravaged farms across the country’s east coast slashed output and pushed it to its biggest loss since 1998. Grain Corp’s warning, echoing those of firms like pesticides and crop seeds maker Nufarm and dairy produce supplier Bega Cheese, comes as wild bushfires plague the region. After three years of extreme drought, the east coast is now forecast to swelter through at least three more months of dry and hotter-than-normal conditions. The company had previously said it would lose money for the year ended Sept. 30, and on Thursday reported a net loss of A$113 million ($77.5 million), versus a profit of A$71 million a year ago. The result is Grain Corp’s worst since listing.


China’s African swine fever outbreak is far more severe than previously thought and the full impact of the disease on animal feed producers has yet to be realized, U.S. agribusiness company Archer Daniels Midland Co said on Wednesday


China’s economic activity growth slowed further last month, presenting challenges for Beijing while it tries to solve trade tensions with the U.S.; China’s value-added industrial output in October rose 4.7% from a year earlier, slowing from September’s 5.8% increase, the National Bureau of Statistics said


Argentina’s 2019/20 wheat harvest is estimated at 19 million tones, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday, down from a previous forecast of 20 million tons


Egypt plans to import 8 to 9 million tons of yellow corn in the current 2019-2020 season, an agriculture ministry official


Strong competitiveness of European wheat on world markets prompted consultancy Strategie Grains on Thursday to lift its outlook for this season’s EU soft wheat exports again

—in a monthly report Strategie Grains forecast 2019/2020 exports outside the European Union at 28.8 million tonnes, up from 27.3 million seen last month and now nearly 7 million tonnes above its July estimate


Malaysia signed a pact on Thursday for exports of palm oil to south Asia next year, amid uncertainty over trade with India after its dealers last month urged a boycott of palm oil from the southeast Asian nation; in October, India’s top vegetable oil trade body told members to stop buying palm oil from the world’s second largest producer and exporter of the commodity, after remarks by Malaysia’s prime minister on disputed Kashmir stirred anger.

—Indian refiners have resumed buying Malaysian palm oil after a gap of nearly a month and contracted around 70,000 tonnes of shipments in December as Kuala Lumpur has been offering a $5 per tonne discount over supplies from rival Indonesia