ADMIS AM Comment 112219

By ADM Investor Services Research Team


Wheat prices overnight are up roughly 3 cents in the SRW Wheat, up 2 in HRW, and up 1 for HRS; Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans down 1; Soymeal down $0.50, and; Soyoil up 30 points.


For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 6 cents for Soft Red Winter, up 3 in the Hard Red Winter, and down 10 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 16 cents; Soymeal down $7.00, and; Soyoil up 40 points (crushing margins are up 5 cents at $1.00—March, oil-share is unchanged at 33%).


Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 8 yuan in Soybeans, down 1 in Corn, down 7 in Soymeal, down 44 in Soyoil, and down 46 in Palm Oil.


The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 76 ringgit at 2,743 (basis February) expecting Nov 1-25 export data.


The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has models mixed on how much precip that is forecasted to come over the coming week along with the Southern Plains in finishing up Winter Wheat plantings. Temps look to be near average/both sides over the next 10 days in both regions.


The South American weather forecast for Brazil in the 6 to 10 day outlook remains with good rainfall for the region. Argentina has rains returning early next week before quieting down for the rest of the week. Temps continue to run near average in most of South America over the next 10 days.


The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 5,000 Corn; net sold 7,000 Soybeans; bought 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 7,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net short 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 144,000 Corn; net long 10,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 24,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 86,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 440 contracts; HRW Wheat down 5,300; Corn down 8,600; Soybeans up 9,400 contracts; Soymeal down 3,300 lots, and; Soyoil up 5,200.


There were changes in registrations (Soybeans down 36)—Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 216; Soybeans 1,469; Soyoil 1,314 lots; Soymeal 710; Rice 477; HRW Wheat 11, and; HRS Wheat 669 contracts.




In tender activity—Jordan seeks 120,000t optional-origin wheat—


Weekly export sales of all wheat were running roughly up 8% versus a year ago versus the USDA forecast of a 2% increase. By class, HRW up 40%; SRW up 5%, and HRS down 8%.


Weekly corn export sales were running down roughly 45% behind a year ago with the USDA currently forecasting a 10% decline.


Soybean sales are running 5% ahead of a year ago with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase

Soymeal sales down 14% (USDA down 1%)

Soyoil sales up 2% (USDA down 12%).






The International Grains Council (IGC) said on Thursday the world’s wheat area for the 2020/21 season is expected to expand by 1%; forecast a total world wheat area of 218 million hectares, with the area for harvest in Russia projected to expand; y contrast, wet weather has interrupted autumn fieldwork in parts of the European Union, it said, while dryness in Ukraine has led to a significant drop in the wheat planting area

—The IGC kept its 2019/20 world wheat crop forecast unchanged at 762 million tons

—In corn, it raised its forecast for the 2019/20 world crop by 5 million tons to 1.103 billion tons, reflecting higher production in the United States and Africa; the forecast output in the United States was raised by 3 million tons to 345 million, reflecting higher than expected yields

—The inter-governmental body expects a global corn deficit for the third year running in 2019/20, pegged at 39 million tons


Estimates for November USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report; the U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET

Average            Range

of estimates      of estimates


On-feed November 1           101.4             98.2- 102.5

Placed in October            112.2             96.2- 119.0

Marketed in October           99.6             99.3- 100.1


China’s customs office said that it has approved imports of wheat flour for feed from Kazakhstan; Beijing has already allowed imports of corn, barley and rapeseed meal, also feed ingredients


China’s stocks of breeding sows rise for first time in 19 months

  • Number of breeding sows rises 0.6% last month
  • Pig herd falls 0.6%, smallest month-on-month fall in a year
  • Sow stocks at large farms up almost 5%
  • Risks of African swine fever rising as production recovers

China’s inventory of breeding sows rose 0.6% in October for the first monthly increase since April 2018, official figures showed, signaling that pig production may soon start to recover after a devastating epidemic of African swine fever.


Wire story was reporting the United States has sold and shipped more pork this year to international buyers than ever before amid a global protein squeeze, though China is the only one that has stepped up to the plate in a big way for 2020.



Argentina’s government and the country’s main grains exchange increased their soy planting estimates on Thursday, as growers hedge against political uncertainty by shifting toward oilseeds, which are cheaper to grow, and away from more expensive corn; Argentine President-elect Alberto Fernandez, set to take office on Dec. 10, has said little about his farm policy plans; but growers and exporters say they are expecting the center-left Peronist politician to increase soy and corn export taxes.


The condition of soft wheat crops sown for next year’s harvest fell sharply last week, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed suggesting heavy rain was affecting field conditions; an estimated 78% of soft wheat was rated good or excellent in the week to Nov. 18, down from 84% a week earlier and below an 82% score in the same week last year

—French farmers had completed 74% of soft wheat sowing for next year’s harvest, up from 71% a week earlier and below 97% progress seen a year ago

—Grain maize harvest progress also remained slow, with 88% of the crop gathered compared with 84% a week earlier