By ADM Investor Services Research Team
Wheat prices overnight are up 1 in SRW, up 2 1/2 in HRW, up 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal up $0.17; Soyoil down 0.12.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 28 1/4 in SRW, up 19 1/2 in HRW, down 4 in HRS; Corn is up 22 3/4; Soybeans up 31 1/2; Soymeal up $1.02; Soyoil up 0.53.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 30 1/4 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, up 14 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 14 1/2; Soybeans up 12 1/2; Soymeal up $0.24; Soyoil up 0.25.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 19) Soybeans down 2 yuan ; Soymeal down 4; Soyoil up 44; Palm oil up 26; Corn down 9 — Malasyian Palm is up 3.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 3 ringgit (+0.15%) at 2011, climbing for a second day on optimism over export demand and as firmer crude oil prices made the tropical oil more attractive for blending into biofuel.
The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has wet weather returning to the Midwest this weekend, favoring Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Another system rolls through early next week, which should cover the eastern Plains, Midwest and eastern corn-belt states. The seven day total is expected to be 1 ½ to 3 inches. This could continue to delay soybean plantings in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan.
The U.S. Southern Plains weather forecast should continue to see warm temperatures with a slightly drier trend into the second half of June.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 8000 contracts of SRW Wheat; buyers 38,000 Corn; net buyers of 10,000 Soybeans; buyers 3,000 Soymeal, and; net sellers of 5,000 lots of Soyoil.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 13 were: SRW Wheat down 4,158 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,755, Corn up 36,089, Soybeans up 21,484, Soymeal down 2,433, Soyoil down 3,265.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 9 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 1,036 Corn; 640 Soybeans; 3,547 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.
TODAY
USDA confirmed private sales of 175,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico for 2019/20 marketing year.
Japan bought 37,293 tonnes of food-quality wheat from Canada in a regular tender that closed late on Thursday.
Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of optional origin milling wheat.
Jordan’s Silos and Supply General Company has issued an international tender to buy 25,000 tonnes of milling wheat. The tender deadline is July 1 and is for shipment in the first half of September.
Philippine importers have issued an international tender to purchase around 55,000 tonnes of feed wheat.
Millers in the Philippines this week bought 110,000 tonnes of feed wheat for arrival in July and August.
Turkey’s state grains board TMO has issued a series of international tenders to purchase a total of 100,000 tonnes of corn.
Qatar based importer issued a tender to purchase 105,000 tonnes of barley and 90,000 tonnes of wheat bran.
Indian state-run trading company MMTC has for the fifth time postponed the deadline for offer submissions in an international tender to import Non-GMO yellow corn, this time to June 19.
Basis bids for corn and soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were mostly steady to firm on Thursday, with spot values holding their steep premium to deferred shipments amid lingering shipping problem on flooded Midwest rivers. Several soybean export cargoes sold to China are being rolled to August from July as river closures have deprived exporters of export-grade soybeans from the upper Midwest as available high-quality supplies from the south are getting depleted.
American officials released images they said show that Iran was involved in an attack on an oil tanker near the entrance to the Persian Gulf on Thursday, one of a pair of incidents that have raised tensions between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic over the past day.
Vietnam says about 2.5m pigs have been culled, or over 7% of the country’s herd, as African swine fever hits more locations including the financial hub of Ho Chi Minh City, says local newspaper Tien Phong, citing the agriculture ministry’s animal health department. Outbreak has been found in 3,980 communes, 407 districts in 55 Vietnamese provinces and cities. About 87% out of 63 Vietnam’s provinces and cities are infected. Damage may reach a point where a state of emergency must be declared.
African Swine Fever gene was detected in confiscated canned goods brought from Hong Kong by a returning resident according to Bureau of Animal Industry official. Viral DNA was isolated in pork luncheon meat.
Chinese soybean buyers are asking sellers in the United States to delay cargoes due to be shipped in July until August. More than 6 million tonnes have already been shipped to China, but some 7 million tonnes bought before talks broke down are outstanding. About 2 million tonnes of July are trying to be rolled into August, said a source with direct knowledge of the matter. China would incur steep penalties if it tried to cancel the orders.
China, the world’s largest consumer of corn after the U.S., is likely to slash state sales of the commodity this year in an effort to halt the rapid depletion of stockpiles that are used to temper food inflation. It will probably sell at most 50 million tons from its temporary inventories, or about half of what it sold last year. After the sales end, which will probably be in September, less than 50 million tons is expected to be left in the stockpiles, equivalent to about two months’ consumption and the least since 2012.
Russian May grain export inspections totaled more than 37 thousand tons grains and its processed products. The main importer of these products is China with 19.8 thousand tons of soybeans &corn, 4.1 thousand tons wheat flour. Japan received 13.2 thousand tons of soybeans and corn, 820 tons of grain (corn, oats) were sent to Korea. Since the beginning of 2019, 227.9 thousand tons of grain and 22.3 thousand tons of processed products have been exported.
Mexico will likely use significantly more US wheat this year despite growing unease with President Donald Trump, according to Mexico’s main wheat chamber. Wheat shipments from Russia are also expected to repeat last year’s big jump in volume, while Argentine wheat is seen gaining as Mexico continues to diversify its suppliers. Mexico relies on imports for about two-thirds of domestic demand. Overall, Mexican wheat imports will “very likely” be between 5.1 and 5.2 million tonnes, up from 4.9 in 2018, boosted by a 4 percent jump in domestic demand, said Jose Luis Fuente, head of the CANIMOLT wheat chamber. U.S. wheat imports are forecast by the chamber to reach between 3.5 and 4 million tonnes, or as much 40 percent higher than last year.
France’s FranceAgriMer estimates 80% of French soft wheat crops were in good or excellent condition in the week ending June 10, unchanged from last week and 76% last year. Corn good/excellent score was stable at 82%.
Crude palm oil (CPO) price is expected to continually be depressed by record low soyabean oil price, arising from an escalating United States-China trade war and African swine fever, said analysts. MIDF Research had a CPO target price of RM2,090 per tonne. Kenanga Research believes CPO production will dip 5% month-on-month to 1.59 million tonnes due to Hari Raya festival. Exports are expected to decline 15% month-on-month to 1.45 million tonnes as the buying from India, EU and US slowed.
Malaysia’s palm oil stockpiles for last month rose 12.8 per cent YoY to 2.4 million tonnes, in line with both Bloomberg and Reuters consensus. MIDF Research said the monthly inventory level had been increasing on a YoY basis for the past 23 months since July 2017.
Indian edible oil refiners have asked Modi to raise duty on refined palm oil imports from Malaysia to protect the local industry following a surge in inbound shipments from the South-east Asian country. India is the world’s biggest edible oil importer. In January, India cut duty on refined palm oil sourced from Malaysia to 45% from 54%.
India May palm imports climb 15.6% M/m to 818,149 tons from 707,450 tons in April, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India. May vegetable oil imports at 1.22m tons vs 1.23m tons a month earlier. Soybean oil imports 232,003 tons vs 248,851 tons.
Argentine Crop Estimates as of June 13
Cargill Inc. said Thursday the Minnesota-based agribusiness giant will spend $30 million to fund new ideas for ending deforestation in Brazil.
Ottawa increased the insurance coverage available for canola exporters as it seeks to reduce trade risks amid a dispute with China. China halted purchases of Canadian canola in March, citing pests in shipments by Richardson International Ltd. and Viterra Inc.
U.S. Agriculture Export Sales for Week Ending June 6
WEATHER
Additional rain is expected in nations including U.K., France, Germany and Poland through early next week, boosting conditions for crops including corn and sunflowers, forecaster Maxar says.
Hot weather is forecast for areas in China’s north until Sunday, according to the country’s National Meteorological Center. Temperatures in part of North China plain and most of the areas along the Yellow River and Huai River could reach as high as 37 degree Celsius (98F). The dryness may affect corn in these areas after harvest of wheat is completed.
In the U.K., recent heavy rain may raise disease risk for cereal crops, CRM AgriCommodities says in a note.
Dry spell is seen persisting across southern Spain according to Maxar. Spain’s grain production is seen falling amid dryness according to Grupo GOF.
7 DAY PRECIP FORECAST & 30 DAY PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIP
6-10 DAY FORECAST (TEMP/PRECIP)
8-14 DAY FORECAST (TEMP/PRECIP)
