ADM AM Comments 061119 – USDA pre-report estimates

By ADM Investor Services Research Team


Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 6 cents in the SRW Wheat, down 10 in HRW, and down 4 for HRS; Corn is down 3 cents; Soybeans down 5; Soymeal down $1.50, and; Soyoil down 5 points.


Chinese Ag futures (September) settled unchanged in Soybeans, down 1 yuan in Corn, up 16 in Soymeal, up 4 in Soyoil, and up 2 in Palm Oil.


The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 15 ringgit at 2,009 (basis August) following rival oils.


The U.S. Midwest weather forecast saw changes as things look wetter across the region over the next 10 days; systems are moving through the region now and again over the weekend and another the first half of next week all with moderate amounts—-temps are seen running average to below average.


The Southern U.S. Plains continues to see an above average rainfall pattern with waves of rain moving through all the way to the first half of next week—temps will be running below average.


The Northern U.S. Plains will continue to see close to average precip for the region—temps will be running average to below average most of this week warming to above average for the weekend and early next week.


The U.S. Delta and Southeastern states will see occasional rounds of showers over the next couple of weeks except the central and southern Delta where little rain is expected.


The 11 to 16 Day Outlook has above average precip for most of the Plains and the Midwest with the potential for some excessive rains in eastern Kansas/Oklahoma and the southern half of the Midwest—temps will be running below average in the southern Plains and most of the Midwest, average to above average temps are seen in the northern Plains.


The player sheet had funds net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 3,000 Corn; bought 5,000 contracts of Soybeans; net bought 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 1,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net short 18,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 57,000 Corn; net short 116,000 contracts of Soybeans; net even in Soymeal, and; net short 61,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 7,200 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,400; Corn up 10,100; Soybeans up 100 contracts; Soymeal up 1,400 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,000 lots.


There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 67 contracts for SRW Wheat; 2 Oats; Corn 1,036; Soybeans 640; Soyoil 3,547 lots; Soymeal ZERO; Rice 661; HRW Wheat 5, and; HRS Wheat 376 contracts.





In tender activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat—Japan seeks 37,000t Canadian wheat—S. Korea feed groups bought 68,000t optional-origin corn, seek 210,000t optional-origin corn—S. Korea seeks 18,000t optional-origin soybeans—S. Korea passed on 60,000t South American soymeal—


President Donald Trump said he expected Chinese President Xi Jinping to be at the Group of 20 summit in Japan this month and the two are scheduled to talk; Trump said he was ready to impose another round of punitive tariffs on Chinese imports if he does not reach a trade deal with China’s president at the G20.


Farmers shouldn’t wait for details on the latest round of trade aid to make planting decisions, says USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue, as the agency tries to clear up widespread confusion in the Farm Belt; Perdue said USDA would offer more details on how it plans to dole out up to $16B to farmers and others “in the coming weeks,” urging growers meanwhile to “plant what works best on their farm”

—The U.S. Department of Agriculture is looking into ways to allow farmers who have been unable to plant crops due to rains and waterlogged fields to qualify for farm aid payments, Perdue said; the government agency is exploring options that would allow farmers that file insurance claims on “prevented planting” policies to remain eligible for a partial payment under its $16 billion aid package; but the farmers will need to plant an eligible cover crop, a practice typically intended to prevent soil erosion; USDA is not legally authorized to make Market Facilitation Program payments to producers for acreage that is not planted; however, we are exploring legal flexibilities to provide a minimal per acre market facilitation payment


U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 4% (trade estimate was 7%) versus 13% a year ago, 10 average.

U.S. Winter Wheat Headed was 83% versus 76% last week, 90% a year ago, 91% average.


The U.S. Winter Wheat crop was rated 64% good to excellent (trade estimate was 63%) versus 64% a week ago and 38% a year ago; 27% fair (27% a week ago, 27% a year ago), and; 9% poor to very poor (9% a week ago, 35% a year ago).


The U.S. Spring Wheat crop was 97% planted (trade estimate was 97%) versus 93% a week ago, 99% a year ago, 99% average.

U.S. Spring Wheat emerged is 85% versus 69% a week ago (92% a year ago, 93% average).


Spring Wheat was rated  81% good to excellent (trade estimate was 82%) versus 83% last week, 70% a year ago; 18% fair (16% a week ago, 27% a year ago, and; 1% poor to very poor (1% last week, 34% a year ago).


U.S. Corn plantings 83% complete (trade estimate was 83%) versus 67% a week ago, 99% a year ago, 99% average.

Corn emerged 62% versus 46% a week ago (93% a year ago, 93% average).


Corn was rated 59% good to excellent (trade estimate was 54%) versus 77% a year ago; 32% fair (19% last year), 9% poor to very poor (4% last year).


The U.S. Oat crop is 96% planted versus 91% a week ago, 99% last year, and 99% average.

Oats emerged 87% versus 77% a week ago (94% a year ago, 97% average).


Oats headed 28% versus 23% last week, 38% a year ago, 41% average.


Oats were rated 65% good to excellent versus 62% last week and 67% a year ago; 29% fair (31% last week, 25% a year ago), and; 6% poor to very poor ( 7% last week, 8% a year ago).


U.S. Soybeans planted totaled 60% (trade estimate was 56%) versus 39% a week ago, 92% last year, and 88% average.

Soybeans emerged 34% versus 19% a week ago (81% a year ago, 73% average).


Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had

—Wheat exports running 5% behind a year ago with the USDA currently forecasting a 3% decline on the year

—Corn 2% behind (1% behind a week ago) with the USDA down 6% for the season

—Soybeans 26% behind (27% behind last week) with the USDA having a 17% decline forecasted on the year



USDA June crop supply/demand report estimates – Reuters News


USDA 2019-20 U.S. wheat production

USDA June Average of Range of USDA
2019-20 analysts’ analysts’ May
estimate estimates estimates estimates
All wheat _____ 1.883 1.837-1.920 1.897
All winter _____ 1.251 1.194-1.291 1.268
Hard red winter _____ 0.765 0.662-0.812 0.780
Soft red winter _____ 0.261 0.250-0.286 0.265
White winter _____ 0.224 0.220-0.236 0.224



USDA 2019-20 U.S. corn and soybean production

USDA June Average of Range of USDA May
2019-20 analysts’ analysts’ 2019-20
estimate estimates estimates estimate
production ______ 14.251 13.480-14.859 15.030
Corn yield ______ 172.4 169.0-176.0 176.0
Soy production ______ 4.123 3.904-4.240 4.150
Soy yield ______ 49.0 48.0-49.6 49.5



USDA 2018-19 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks

USDA June Average of Range of USDA May
2018-19 analysts’ analysts’ 2018-19
end-stocks estimates estimates end-stocks
estimates estimates
Wheat _____ 1.121 1.087-1.152 1.127
Corn _____ 2.123 2.035-2.245 2.095
Soybeans _____ 1.004 0.920-1.045 0.995



USDA 2019-20 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks

USDA June Average of Range of USDA May
2019-20 analysts’ analysts’ 2019-20
end-stocks estimates estimates end-stocks
estimates estimates
Wheat _____ 1.118 1.052-1.180 1.141
Corn _____ 1.917 1.633-2.404 2.485
Soybeans _____ 0.983 0.854-1.069 0.970



USDA 2018-19 world grain and soybean ending stocks

USDA June Average of Range of USDA May
2018-19 analysts’ analysts’ 2018-19
end-stocks estimates estimates end-stocks
estimates estimates
Wheat ______ 274.70 272.10-276.00 274.98
Corn ______ 325.44 314.00-328.40 325.94
Soybeans ______ 113.33 107.40-115.90 113.18



USDA 2019-20 world grain and soybean ending stocks

USDA June Average of Range of USDA May
2019-20 analysts’ analysts’ 2019-20
end-stocks estimates estimates end-stocks
estimates estimates
Wheat ______ 290.00 277.00-294.00 293.01
Corn ______ 304.96 295.00-315.00 314.71
Soybeans ______ 112.99 104.87-118.50 113.09



USDA 2018-19 South American corn and soy production

USDA June Average of Range of USDA May
2018-19 analysts’ analysts’ 2018-19
estimate estimates estimates estimate
Corn _____ 49.28 48.00-50.00 49.00
Soybeans _____ 56.09 55.50-57.00 56.00
Corn ______ 99.86 96.00-101.00 100.00
Soybeans ______ 117.22 116.00-118.50 117.00



The main U.S. refining industry association said on Monday it sued to block the Trump administration’s effort to expand sales of higher ethanol blends of gasoline, arguing the move exceeded the administration’s authority.




China’s agriculture ministry on Tuesday forecast the country’s 2019/20 corn output at 254.4 million tons, up slightly from the previous month’s estimate as heavy rain in the northeastern corn region alleviated earlier drought conditions; the higher grain output estimate comes even as the destructive fall armyworm spread to the north from southern China.


Brazilian farmers in the center-south have harvested 4.6% of the area planted with second corn through June 6, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said; this compares with 1.9% of the area harvested a year ago and 2.5% of the 5-year average

—it expects Brazil to harvest 73.5 million tons of second corn this season


Wire story reports if trade strife continues between the United States and Mexico despite a deal struck on Friday, Argentine grain exporters are ready to step in to meet Mexican food demand, the head of an Argentine industry chamber said; transport costs from the United States to Mexico are very low, which is why we are not there at the moment; but if tariffs are imposed, we should have enough corn to meet Mexican demand; right now Argentine corn has a very competitive price, and there is plenty of volume available for export to Mexico.


Russian export prices for the new wheat crop, due to arrive on the market in the summer, stabilized last week after a sharp rise the week before as weather-related concerns about the crop eased; Black Sea prices for the new Russian wheat crop with 12.5% protein content were $195 per ton on a free on board (FOB) basis at the end of last week, down $2 from a week earlier; another Moscow-based consultancy also quoted FOB new crop for July delivery at $195 per ton.


France is expected to harvest 3.8 million tons of winter rapeseed this year, down 22% from 2018 and more than 25% below the average of the past five years, the farm ministry said

—The production was based on a forecast yield of 2.94 tons per hectare (t/ha), down from 3.06 t/ha last year and the lowest since 2007, along with an area of 1.31 million hectares, down from 1.61 million in 2018


Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the June 1-10 period are estimated down 32.6% on month at 377,235 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said