ADM AM Comments 012920

Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 4 cents, HRW down 3, HRS Wheat down 4, Corn is down 1 cent, Soybeans up 4, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil up 50 points.


Overnight, soybean futures are higher supported by higher soyoil prices which are following higher palmoil prices. Corn and wheat are lower. Today starts 2 days of US demand news. Today is ethanol numbers which have been negative due to slower demand. Last weeks US export sales data was better than expected but concern about the spread of the coronavirus could slow demand especially to China.


March soybean could be in a range between 8.90 and 9.09, March corn 3.8303.90 and March Chicago wheat between 5.60 and 5.80 until more is known about South America crops, coronavirus impact on demand, global geo political issues and World 2020/21 supply and demand.


China Health Commission updated a 25 pct rise in new virus cases. 5,974 cases reported and 132 deaths. There is some talk of food shortages in effected area. There is talk that China could soon enact duty free  imports for a host of US Ag products in coming weeks.adm


US will sign the new USMCA trade deal today. Some feel this could help US dairy and meat industries


Chinese Ag futures are closed for holiday.


The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 153 ringgit at 2,728 (basis April) rebounding off lows.




The South American weather forecast for Brazil continues with moderate rainfall for much of the growing regions over the next 6 to 10 days.


The Argentine weather forecast has a front bringing rainfall to mostly the northern growing regions at this time with things quieting down as the week winds down



The player sheet had funds net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 21,000 Corn; sold 3,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 1,000 Soyoil.


We estimate Managed Money net long 30,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 54,000 Corn; net short 37,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 44,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 90,000 Soyoil.


Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 5,300 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,800; Corn down 12,900; Soybeans up 9,800 contracts; Soymeal up 820 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,200.


There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 58; Soybeans 131; Soyoil 2,793 lots; Soymeal 1,714; Rice 565; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 788 contracts.





In tender activity—Jordan seeks 120,000t optional-origin wheat—S. Korea bought 133,000t optional-origin corn—Algeria seeks 35,000t optional-origin soymeal—

Wire story reports the next supply and demand update from the U.S. Department of Agriculture could feature some drastic adjustments if it is to fully incorporate China’s lofty agricultural commitments as outlined in the Phase 1 trade deal; the deal, signed Jan. 15, states that China’s purchases of U.S. agricultural goods will be at least $12.5 billion above the 2017 baseline, which is about $24 billion, and sales are to rise at least $19.5 billion above that baseline in 2021



CBOT deliverable grain stocks summary – Reuters News

Location                   WHEAT        CORN    SOYBEANS        OATS        RICE

TOTALS                    26,443       4,627      14,867      11,637      15,827

Week Ago Totals           26,785       4,707      15,478      11,949      15,491

Year Ago Totals           56,419       6,139      16,558      16,784      21,146




KCBT weekly deliverable HRW wheat stocks – Reuters News



01/24/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

TOTAL STOCKS                               24,097            24,082            26,799




01/24/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

TOTAL STOCKS                               11,402            11,413            11,029




01/24/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

TOTAL STOCKS                               25,816            26,534            32,498




01/24/20            Wk Ago            Yr Ago

TOTAL STOCKS                               27,211            27,385            38,218




MGEX Deliverable Hard Red Spring Wheat Stocks – Jan 28

Jan 24             week ago        year ago


(In 000’s)          Mpls     Dul    Mpls    Dul     Mpls     Dul

total stocks        3,302  18,338   3,210  18,331   1,594  15,465




Tunisia’s state grains agency has asked one of its main grain suppliers to avoid importing French wheat due to continuing strikes at French ports which have hampered recent shipments; Public transport strikes that have crippled rail services and rolling stoppages by dock workers have left grain exporters in France struggling to get their supplies to ports.




Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the January 1-25 period are estimated down 4.8% on month at 1,015,226 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said