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Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 4 cents, HRW down 4; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 3, Soymeal down $2.00, and Soyoil up 20 points.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 11 yuan in soybeans, up 7 in Corn, up 21 in Soymeal, up 36 in Soyoil, and down 2 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 7 ringgit at 2,672 (basis November) at midsession on expectations of lower August exports, higher production.
U.S. Weather Forecast
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest has mostly light rainfall for the region with any better coverage east of the Mississippi River; temps run from below to above average over the period.
The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest is mixed between the models with the European slightly below average rainfall and average temps, the GFS bringing below average temps and rainfall.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 22,000 Corn; bought 15,000 Soybeans; net bought 7,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 4,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 95,000 Corn; net long 60,000 Soybeans; net short 16,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 59,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 2,900 contracts; HRW Wheat down 715; Corn down 8,400; Soybeans up 6,500 contracts; Soymeal down 470 lots, and; Soyoil up 2,500.
There were changes in registrations (Soybeans down 36) —Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 100; Soyoil 2,606 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice ZERO; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
U.S. corn rated 69% good-to-excellent, soybeans 72% -USDA – Reuters News
All figures in percent:
|Category||Analyst average||Analyst range||USDA last week||USDA this week|
|Winter wheat harvested||95||94-96||90||93|
|Spring wheat harvested||30||20-35||15||30|
|Spring wheat condition*||68||67-70||69||70|
U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 93% (trade estimate was 95%) versus 90% last week, 92% a year ago, 96% average.
U.S. Spring Wheat harvested was 30 versus 15% last week, 14% a year ago, 43% average.
Spring Wheat was rated 70% good to excellent (trade estimate was 68%) versus 69% last week, and 70% a year ago; 24% fair (24% a week ago, 23% a year ago), and; 6% poor to very poor (7% last week, 7% a year ago).
U.S. Corn dented was 23% versus 11% a week ago, 13% last year, and 24% average.
Corn was rated 69% good to excellent (trade estimate was 68%) versus 71% last week, and 56% a year ago; 21% fair (21% last week, 30% last year), 10% poor to very poor (8% last week, 14% last year).
U.S. Oats harvested was 74% versus 65% a week ago, 57% last year, and 73% average.
U.S. Soybeans setting pods was 84% versus 75% a week ago, 64% last year, and 79% average.
U.S. Soybeans were rated 72% good to excellent (trade estimate was 72%) versus 74% a week ago, and 53% a year ago; 21% fair (21% last week, 33% a year ago), and; 7% poor to very poor (5% last week, 14% a year ago).
Corn yields in Ohio were projected sharply higher than a year ago at 167.69 bushels per acre, the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour said; that figure is up sharply from the 2019 crop tour average of 154.35 bpa and up from the three-year crop tour average of 166.18 bpa
—The four-day crop tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the amount of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Ohio at an average of 1,155.68 pods – also up from last year’s average of 764.01 pods and the three-year average of 1,039.74.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture will collect updated harvested acreage data for corn and soybeans in Iowa, which was hit by an Aug. 10 “derecho” storm, the agency said; the USDA this month projected that Iowa farmers would harvest 13.550 million acres of corn and 9.320 million acres of soybeans; if any changes to those estimates are warranted, the USDA said it would publish the changes in its Sept. 11 crop production report.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said he approved federal disaster aid for Iowa after a hurricane-force storm hit last week, causing widespread damage in towns and farms and leaving thousands without power.
Trade estimates for USDA grain export inspections – Reuters News
U.S. weekly grain/soybean export inspections – USDA – Reuters News
WEEK ENDED: 08/13/2020 08/06/2020 08/06/2020 08/15/2019
Prelim. Revised Previous
– Wheat 461,699 476,698 379,949 564,632
– Oats 0 0 0 0
– Barley 1,996 0 0 0
– Corn 1,036,985 1,288,883 1,150,979 510,334
– Sorghum 83,934 109,012 38,959 56,802
– Soybeans 785,075 785,568 635,665 1,158,755
MARKETING YEAR-TO-DATE INSPECTIONS
Current Year Last Year
– Wheat 5,625,441 5,521,334
– Oats 800 299
– Barley 2,461 2,938
– Corn 40,312,783 46,168,508
– Sorghum 4,723,598 1,999,455
– Soybeans 40,950,167 43,485,255
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had
—Wheat exports running up 2% ahead of a year ago (up 2% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year
—Corn 13% behind a year ago (14% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season
—Soybeans are down 6% on the year (down 5% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
- U.S. JULY SOYBEAN CRUSH 172.794 MLN BU – NOPA
- U.S. JULY SOYOIL STOCKS 1.619 BLN LBS – NOPA
- U.S. JULY SOYMEAL EXPORTS 876,159 TONS – NOPA
U.S. soybean crushings increased to a four-month high in July, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released
NOPA said its members processed 172.794 million bushels of soybeans last month, up from 167.263 million bushels in June and up from the 168.093 million bushels crushed in July 2019; analysts, on average, had been expecting a crush of 172.015 million bushels
Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of July fell to 1.619 billion lbs, from 1.778 billion lbs at the end of June but up from 1.467 billion lbs at the end of July 2019; soyoil stocks, on average, had been expected to decline to 1.698 billion lbs
Soymeal exports in July rose to 876,159 tons, from 835,403 tons in June but down slightly from 879,319 tons in July 2019, according to NOPA.
A Brazilian federal judge on Monday ordered protesters to clear the BR-163 highway, a main route for exporting grains from Mato Grosso state to northern ports; members of the Kayapó indigenous tribe had blocked the route in center-west Brazil on Monday, protesting against a lack of government protection from the coronavirus pandemic that has killed several of their elders.
Russia has harvested 82.8 million tonnes of grain before drying and cleaning from 51.4% of the area with an average yield of 3.36 tonnes per hectare, data from the agriculture ministry showed
Euronext wheat futures rose for a third straight session on Monday to their highest since July as signs of Chinese demand fuelled a rally in Chicago while technical adjustments again boosted spot prices in Paris; December milling wheat settled up 2.25 euros, or 1.3%, at 182.50 euros ($216.54) a tonne, its highest since July 31; front-month September futures settled 4.00 euros up at 184.75 euros, just off an earlier three-week peak of 185.00 euros.
Australia has appealed China’s prohibitive tariff on barley shipments from the world’s third-biggest exporter of the grain as Australian farmers scramble to find alternative markets; amid sour diplomatic relations between the countries, China in May imposed anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties totalling 80.5% on Australian barley – effectively stopping a billion-dollar trade in its tracks; China on Tuesday also said it had begun an anti-dumping probe into Australian wine imports.Back