This weeks video reviews one of our favored markets Cattle. Discusses crop insurance and how to lock in payouts and reviews key support and resistance on several commodities.
ADMIS AM comments
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 5 cents, HRW down 10; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 1, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil up 20 points.
Chinese Ag futures are closed for holiday until Wednesday.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 10 ringgit at 1,993 (basis July) awaiting April trade data.
U.S. Weather Forecast
Last night’s GFS model run was slightly cooler in the Corn Belt Saturday morning, in the northern Corn Belt Monday morning, and in the eastern Corn Belt Tuesday morning compared to the midday GFS model
—there is potential of freeze damage to emerged corn in the upper Midwest this weekend and possibly some risk farther south early next week
South America Weather Forecast
Some shower and thunderstorm activity will occur in second season corn and cotton production areas of Brazil
Black Sea/Europe region
Evening GFS model run suggested no change in Russia, or the Black Sea region with additional rain expected over the balance of this week
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 9,000 Corn; net sold 8,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 2,000 Soymeal, and; sold 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 12,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 153,000 Corn; net long 8,000 in Soybeans; net short 7,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 8,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 110 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,300; Corn up 5,400; Soybeans up 5,800 contracts; Soymeal up 3,200 lots, and; Soyoil up 2,700.
Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil; 59 Rice; 87 Corn; ZERO HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; ZERO Soybeans; ZERO SRW, and; 2 HRS.
There were changes in registrations (Rice down 24; HRS Wheat down 221)—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 223; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 3,550 lots; Soymeal 547; Rice 308; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 682 contracts.
Farmers are planting their crops as fast as possible in order to avoid the pitfalls of late planting seen last year; the USDA says 51% of corn expected to be planted this year is already planted as of this week–well up from 21% this time last year and a 5-year average of 39%; soybeans are also ahead of the pack, with 23% planted, up from 5% planted last year
U.S. Winter Wheat was rated 55% good to excellent (trade estimate was 53%) versus 54% a week ago and 64% a year ago; 31% fair (31% last week, 28% a year ago); 14% poor to very poor (15% last week, 8% a year ago).
U.S. Winter Wheat headed was 32% versus 21% last week, 26% a year ago, 38% average.
U.S. Spring Wheat planted was 29% (trade estimate was 30%) versus 14% last week, 19% a year ago, 43% average.
U.S. Spring Wheat emerged was 6% versus 4% last week, 4% a year ago, 16% average.
U.S. Corn planted was 51% (trade estimate was 48%) versus 27% a week ago, 21% last year, and 39% average.
U.S. Corn emerged was 8% versus 3% a week ago, 5% last year, and 10% average.
U.S. Oats planted were 67% versus 54% a week ago, 48% last year, and 67% average.
U.S. Oats emerged were 44% versus 32% a week ago, 35% last year, and 47% average.
U.S. Soybeans planted was 23% (trade estimate was 21%) versus 8% a week ago, 5% last year, and 11% average.
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had
—Wheat exports running 5% ahead of a year ago (5% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 5% increase on the year
—Corn 34% behind a year ago (36% last week) with the USDA down 16% for the season
—Soybeans 5% ahead of a year ago (up 6% last week) with the USDA having a 2% increase forecasted on the year
Costco Wholesale Corp said on Monday it had limited the number of beef, pork and poultry products customers can buy, as grocery stores prepare for massive shortages of meat supplies following coronavirus-induced supply disruptions
Smithfield Foods Inc, the world’s biggest pork processor, resumed limited operations on Monday at a massive South Dakota slaughterhouse it closed last month because of the coronavirus pandemic, the union representing plant employees said
Brazilian soybean exports in April reached 16.3 million tons, an all-time record for a single month and an increase from 9.4 million tons in same month last year, according to average daily export data released on Monday by the government
—the previous record was 12.35 million tons, set in May 2018. Brazil, the world’s largest exporter of soybeans, had shipped 11.64 million tons of soybeans in March as local farmers finish collecting another bumper crop
Brazilian officials expect the coronavirus outbreak to spark a rise in global agricultural protectionism as countries seek to secure local food supplies, according to a draft report from the agriculture ministry; the report flags a range of concerns related to “agriculture nationalism,” including the possibility of countries imposing export restrictions, subsidies and other policies to favor domestic agriculture industries; the concerns emerged during the ministry’s recent consultations with 23 agricultural attachés stationed in Brazilian diplomatic outposts around the world
- BRAZIL 2020 SOYBEAN EXPORT FORECAST REVISED TO 76 MILLION TNS VERSUS 74.07 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – INTL FCSTONE
- FORECAST FOR BRAZIL’S SECOND CORN CROP REVISED LOWER TO 72.6 MILLION TNS FROM 73.9 MILLION TNS – INTL FC STONE
- FORECAST FOR BRAZIL’S 2019/2020 SOY CROP REVISED HIGHER TO 120.6 MILLION TNS FROM 120.1 MILLION TNS – INTL FC STONE
- BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS IN 2019/2020 SEASON SEEN AT 35 MILLION TNS, STABLE FROM APRIL’S FORECAST – INTL FC STONE
- BRAZIL INTERNAL CORN DEMAND IN 2019/2020 SEASON SEEN AT 68.5 MILLION TNS, DOWN FROM 70 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED LAST MONTH DUE TO CORONAVIRUS – INTL FC STONE
Argentina’s soon-to-be-planted 2020/21 wheat growing area is expected at 6.7 million hectares, 1.5% more than in the previous season thanks in part to favorable expected crop weather, the Bahia Blanca Grains Exchange said.
Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2019/20 season that started last July had reached 28.80 million tons by May 3, official EU data showed; that was 64% above the volume cleared by April 28 last year
—EU 2019/20 barley exports had reached 6.35 million tons, up 62% from the year-earlier period
—EU 2019/20 maize imports stood at 17.47 million tons, down 14%
European Union soybean imports in the 2019/20 season that started last July had reached 12.16 million tons by May 3, official EU data showed; that was 5% below the volume cleared by April 28 last year
—EU rapeseed imports in 2019/20 had reached 5.30 million tons, up 47% versus the year-earlier period
—Soymeal imports so far in 2019/20 were at 14.85 million tons, up 4%
—Palm oil imports stood at 4.66 million tons, down 15%
Iraq’s trade ministry said on Tuesday it procured 311,944 tons of local wheat since the start of the harvest season last month; the agriculture ministry said it expects local production to reach 6 million tons in the April-May harvest season; Iraq said in March that it would need to import one million tons of wheat this year to boost reserves amid growing concerns that measures to combat the coronavirus pandemic globally would slow the food supply chain.
Malaysia April end-stocks seen rising 10% as output surges to six-month high – Reuters News
- April stocks seen up 10% at 1.91 mln T -survey
- Output seen up 15% higher at 1.61 mln T -survey
- Exports seen up 4% at 1.23 mln T -survey
- Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due May 10
Breakdown of April estimates (in tonnes):