Ethanol destruction vs Feed demand, Long term vs short term charts, Packers margin, Retail vs Producer price.
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ADMIS AM Comments
Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 4 cents, HRW down 3; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans down 2, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil down 15 points.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 15 yuan in Soybeans, up 4 in Corn, down 27 in Soymeal, down 82 in Soyoil, and down 80 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 1 ringgit at 2,245 (basis June) at midsession on rising stock concerns over slower demand.
U.S. Weather Forecast
Last night’s GFS model run was notably wetter in the Delta and southeastern states Apr. 22 – 23; occasional periods of rain in the Delta and Southeast the next two weeks will cause periodic fieldwork delays and in the Midwest as well.
South America Weather Forecast
Conditions in much of Argentina and Brazil are still expected to be favorable for fieldwork and crop production; though, there will likely be pockets that get too dry in southern Brazil with some increase of crop stress.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 3,000 Corn; net sold 6,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 3,000 Soymeal, and; sold 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 23,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 108,000 Corn; net long 17,000 contracts of Soybeans; net long 26,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 1,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 7,300 contracts; HRW Wheat up 3,100; Corn up 16,300; Soybeans up 6,200 contracts; Soymeal up 6,300 lots, and; Soyoil down 770.
There were changes in registrations (Rice down 10)—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 3; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 2,668 lots; Soymeal 564; Rice 451; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 821 contracts.
TODAY—-WEEKLY DELIVERABLE STOCKS—
Tender Activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat for May-Jun shipment—Sudan seeks 200,000t optional-origin wheat from the United Nations world food program—Jordan canceled tender for 120,000t optional-origin wheat—Ethiopia postpones tender for 200,000t optional-origin wheat—
POLL-U.S. corn planting seen 3% complete; wheat ratings steady
All figures in percent:
| Category | Average | Range | Last week |
| Corn planted (percent) | 3 | 2-5 | NA |
| Spring wheat planted (percent) | 5 | 0-10 | NA |
| Winter wheat conditions* | 62 | 58-65 | 62 |
| *Percent good/excellent |
In its first corn planting report of the season, USDA NASS estimated 3% of the nation’s crop had been planted as of Sunday, April 12; so far, at least, that matches last year’s progress at the same time and is near the five-year average of 4%.
In another first-of-the-season report, NASS estimated 6% of winter wheat was headed, slightly ahead of 5% last year and slightly behind the five-year average of 7%
Winter wheat’s good-to-excellent condition rating, meanwhile, remained unchanged from the previous week at 62%
However, the crop’s poor-to-very-poor rating was up 1 percentage point from 9% the previous week to 10% last week.
Spring wheat was just 5% planted compared to a five-year average of 9%
Sorghum was 18% planted, compared to 15% last year and a 17% five-year average
Oats were 32% planted as of April 12, compared to 29% last year and a 36% average.
Oats emergence was at 24%, compared to 26% last year and a 27% average
Barley was 12% planted, ahead of 6% last year, but behind the five-year average of 15%
Cotton planting was 9% complete, compared to 7% last year and a 6 average
Rice was 21% planted, compared to 24% last year and a 31% average
Rice emerged was 15%, slightly ahead of the average of 13%
DJ USDA Crop Progress: Winter Wheat Condition/Progress-Apr 13
very poor poor fair good excellent
04/12 04/05 04/12 04/05 04/12 04/05 04/12 04/05 04/12 04/05
Ark 2 0 10 4 47 48 32 34 9 14
Cali 0 0 0 0 40 39 55 57 5 4
Colo 14 12 18 15 28 25 38 45 2 3
Idah 0 0 2 0 29 19 60 73 9 8
Ill 4 4 6 6 29 28 42 44 19 18
Ind 1 1 4 4 27 28 55 53 13 14
Kans 4 3 11 10 35 38 44 41 6 8
Mich 2 2 9 8 33 35 49 48 7 7
Mo 2 2 7 8 42 49 42 34 7 7
Mont 4 1 5 2 37 45 52 50 2 2
Nebr 1 1 6 5 18 17 69 67 6 10
NC 0 1 6 3 19 21 61 63 14 12
Ohio 1 1 4 4 21 20 58 60 16 15
Okla 1 1 3 4 21 22 70 68 5 5
Ore 2 2 3 3 17 16 28 28 50 51
SD 0 0 0 1 19 16 77 71 4 12
Texas 1 1 7 8 26 29 51 50 15 12
Wash 1 0 2 1 17 17 70 73 10 9
18-state
Avg 3 2 7 7 28 29 53 53 9 9
yr-ago 2 2 7 7 31 31 48 48 12 12
PROGRESS:
–Headed–
04/12 04/05 2019 Avg
Ark 33 6 16 28
Cali 15 (NA) 21 37
Colo 0 (NA) 0 0
Idah 0 (NA) 0 0
Ill 1 (NA) 1 1
Ind 0 (NA) 0 0
Kans 0 0 0 1
Mich 0 (NA) 0 0
Mo 0 0 0 2
Mont 0 (NA) 0 0
Nebr 0 (NA) 0 0
NC 15 5 1 6
Ohio 0 (NA) 0 0
Okla 2 (NA) 6 10
Ore 0 (NA) 0 0
SD 0 (NA) 0 0
Texas 35 29 24 29
Wash 0 (NA) 0 0
18-state
Avg 6 (NA) 5 7
USDA Crop Progress: Winter Wheat Condition Index-Apr 13
TOTAL US WINTER WHEAT CONDITION SUMMARY (IN PERCENT): Yr Ago(*)
04/13 04/05 04/14/19
v po 3 2 2
poor 7 7 7
fair 28 29 31
good 53 53 48
exln 9 9 12
STATE AND WHEAT-BY-CLASS INDICES, NATIONAL AVERAGE RATINGS:
(An index value of 100 is approximately normal.) Yr Ago(*)
04/13 04/05 04/14/19
Ark 94 100 95
Cali 101 101 130
Colo 84 88 102
Idah 104 107 102
Ill 102 102 97
Ind 104 104 99
Kans 94 95 99
Mich 98 98 82
Mo 96 94 94
Mont 96 98 111
Nebr 103 105 102
NC 106 106 91
Ohio 106 106 86
Okla 104 103 107
Ore 115 116 107
SD 106 109 98
Texa 103 101 96
Wash 107 108 103
HRW 98 98 102
SRW 101 101 93
SWW 106 108 100
Avg 99 100 100
Yr a 100 100 NA
USDA Crop Progress: Spring Wheat Progress-Apr 13
–Planted–
04/12 04/05 2019 Avg
Idaho 42 23 14 30
Minn 0 (NA) 0 7
Mont 2 1 1 7
ND 0 (NA) 0 3
SD 6 0 0 24
Wash 57 42 15 36
6-state
avg 5 (NA) 2 9
USDA Crop Progress: Corn Progress-Apr 13
–Planted–
04/12 04/05 2019 Avg
Colo 0 (NA) 0 0
Ill 1 0 0 2
Ind 1 (NA) 1 1
Iowa 0 (NA) 0 1
Kans 6 1 5 10
Ky 12 (NA) 6 6
Mich 0 (NA) 0 0
Minn 0 (NA) 0 1
Mo 4 0 5 11
Nebr 0 (NA) 0 1
NC 28 6 14 22
ND 0 (NA) 0 0
Ohio 0 (NA) 0 0
Pa 0 (NA) 0 1
SD 0 (NA) 0 0
Tenn 12 1 14 12
Tex 63 57 56 53
Wis 0 (NA) 0 0
18-state
avg 3 (NA) 3 4
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had
—Wheat exports running 8% ahead of a year ago (7% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 5% increase on the year
—Corn 36% behind a year ago (37% last week) with the USDA down 16% for the season
—Soybeans 6% ahead of a year ago (up 6% last week) with the USDA having a 2% increase forecasted on the year
The U.S. Department of Agriculture will spend up to $15.5 billion in the initial phase of its plan to bolster the nation’s food supply chain against the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak; the plan, which could be announced this week, marks the Trump administration’s first big push to ensure the pandemic doesn’t trigger consumer food shortages as meat packers shutter, dairy producers dump milk, and farmers struggle to find workers to harvest, plant and deliver crops; the initial plan will include direct payments to farmers and ranchers, along with other support measures, using a portion of the $23.5 billion approved by Congress to support agriculture in a coronavirus stimulus bill last month, along with some existing USDA funds.
At a Wayne Farms chicken processing plant in Alabama, workers recently had to pay the company 10 cents a day to buy masks to protect themselves from the new coronavirus; in Colorado, nearly a third of the workers at a JBS USA beef plant stayed home amid safety concerns for the last two weeks as a 30-year employee of the facility died following complications from the virus; and since an Olymel pork plant in Quebec shut on March 29, the number of workers who tested positive for the coronavirus quintupled to more than 50; the facility and at least 10 others in North America have temporarily closed or reduced production in about the last two weeks because of the pandemic, disrupting food supply chains that have struggled to keep pace with surging demand at grocery stores
U.S. soybean processing plants likely notched their third-largest crush on record last month and their largest-ever March crush, according to analysts polled ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Wednesday
NOPA members likely processed 175.163 million bushels of soybeans last month
—it would be up from the 166.288 million bushels crushed in February and the March 2019 crush of 170.011 million bushels
—It would also top the previous March crush record of 171.858 million bushels set in March 2018.
—Crush estimates ranged from 165.000 million to 179.583 million bushels
The monthly NOPA report will be released at 11 a.m. CDT on Wednesday
Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of March were seen swelling to 2.067 billion pounds, up from 1.922 billion at the end of February and 1.761 billion at the end of March 2019
—If realized, it would be the largest end-of-month soyoil supply since April 2018
—Estimates for soyoil stocks ranged from 1.966 billion to 2.142 billion pounds
China’s soybean imports in March fell 13% from the previous year to their lowest in more than five years, customs data showed, after rains delayed cargoes from top supplier Brazil and as the coronavirus outbreak dented oilseed demand
—China imported 4.28 million tons of the oilseed in March
—down from 4.91 million tons in March last year, and the lowest since February 2015
—For the first quarter, shipments were 17.79 million tons, up 6.2% from a year earlier
—China’s soybean imports in the first two months of 2020 were 13.51 million tons, up 14.2% year-on-year
—China’s pork imports in March almost tripled from last year, China brought in 391,000 tons of pork in March, up from 127,218 tons in March, 2019
—The price of live pigs in China continued to retreat as government policies to boost hog production took effect; hog prices went down 2.3 percent in early April compared with the previous 10 days
China brought in 35.56 billion yuan ($5.05 billion) worth of farm goods from the United States in the first three months of 2020, up 110% from last year
—China has committed to buy additional purchases of U.S. agriculture products totaling $32 billion over two years, under the Phase 1 trade deal
—That would include $12.5 billion above the corresponding 2017 baseline of $24 billion in 2020 and $19.5 billion above the baseline in 2021
—China brought in 7.81 million tons of soybeans from the U.S. in the first quarter of 2020, worth 21.88 billion yuan, up 210% from last year
—Shipments of U.S. pork to China during the first quarter were 168,000 tons, up 640% from the previous year; the value of the cargoes increased by 17 times to 3.04 billion yuan
BRAZIL 2019/2020 SOYBEAN FARMERS HARVEST 89% OF THE PLANTED AREA THROUGH THURSDAY VERSUS 88% ONE YEAR AGO – AGRURAL
—AGRURAL SAYS BRAZIL TO COLLECT 123.8 MILLION TNS OF SOYBEANS THIS SEASON, WILL REVISE ESTIMATE IN EARLY MAY
Russian wheat export prices rose last week due to limits on shipments imposed by Romania, Ukraine and Moscow itself, and as the ruble strengthened against the dollar; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content loaded from Black Sea ports and for the nearest delivery was up $3 to $225 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, SovEcon said; IKAR, another Moscow agriculture consultancy, pegged wheat at $227 a ton, up $3; prices for the new crop, which is due to arrive this summer, and delivery in late July rose by $4 to $202 a ton.
Dry spring weather with little rain expected in the next two weeks is starting to raise concerns about this year’s grain harvest among Russian farmers and analysts; Russia is still expected to harvest a larger crop in 2020 than a year ago as farmers sowed a bigger area with winter grains, and their sowings remain in a healthy state after a mild winter; however, the lack of rain in the main grain exporting southern regions is starting to support Russian wheat prices, adding that rains were “badly needed” after a dry March; SovEcon, another consultancy said the weather remained unfavorable for the new crop; the crops are still in good shape but ample precipitation will be needed in the next few weeks, especially in Russia’s south
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